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(Aaron's note: This article was written and in the process of being edited when news broke mid-day Friday that a deal had been struck in principle between the Nets and Nuggets to trade Carmelo Anthony to New Jersey. Obviously, when it was written, there was no news of the reported deal.

While that news impacts the thesis of this column, hopefully it won't impact your enjoyment.)

Within the past week, I inadvertently used the same joke twice (What can I say, I’m funny like that).

It started on Wednesday, when Yahoo.com's Adrian Wojnarowski reported that the on again, off again, on again, off again, negotiations between the Denver Nuggets and New Jersey Nets over Carmelo Anthony were on again. Apparently this time, the Nets decided to take Devin Harris out of their trade proposal, and instead substitute the Six Flags in Jackson into their package, along with Derrick Favors and a slew of draft picks. Who knew?

Of course with the never ending ‘Melo-drama taking a new spin, I- like so many unfunny sportswriters- took to Twitter and said the following, “This story is like Groundhog Day…Only not funny.”

Well, unbeknownst to me, I used the same analogy when texting my buddy about Jersey Shore on Thursday night. For those of you who missed the episode, it was really no different than any of the last four (well, except this one had more poop jokes): Ronnie and Sammi can’t live together. They got into a fight. Sammi moved out. Then Ronnie felt bad and missed her. Now he can’t live without her. Tell me where you’ve heard that one before? It’s like I said, it’s Groundhog Day. Only not funny.

But then something strange happened. As I laid in bed last night, I began to realize that wait a second… these two situations actually do have quite a bit common.

Here are 10 Things I came up with…

 

1. Both Had Humble Beginnings, And Really Did Start Off On A Strong Foot: With Carmelo, we all know the narrative: Brooklyn born, Baltimore bred and led Syracuse to a National Championship in his one and only year on a college campus. Pretty sweet, right?

Beyond that, what everyone forgets is just how much ‘Melo turned things around in Denver. This wasn’t just an awful organization before he got there, it was an abysmal one. Denver hadn’t made the playoffs since 1995 entering ‘Melo’s first season in 2003-2004. They’ve made seven straight postseason's since. Which is one thing we can’t forget about Carmelo: Say what you want about Carmelo the person. Carmelo the basketball player is just about as good as they come.

And much like how ‘Melo burst on the scene at Syracuse and in the NBA, Ronnie and Sammi did that within the opening minutes of the first episode of Jersey Shore. Ronnie introduced himself to the world with his now famous quote, “My only rule is, you don’t fall in love on the Jersey Shore,” which in hindsight would’ve been like ‘Melo saying, “I promise you I’ll retire a Nugget,” the day he signed his rookie contract. Tisk, tisk.

Still, like ‘Melo, both Ronnie and Sammi made their presence felt immediately, and by the end of the first episode, it was officially on. Well not sexually. But you get the point.

2. Both Reached Their Respective Apexes Relatively Recently: At least in real time.

 Sammi and Ronnie hit their plateau right around the end of Season 1, becoming the envy of every Guido couple out there. They went go-kart racing, played mini-golf, and at night went at it like jackrabbits. It was a match made in Meatball Heaven (Their words. Not mine).

For ‘Melo everything peaked in the 2009 playoffs, with Denver’s run to the Western Conference Finals. Believe me, I watched every one of those games, and ‘Melo went step for step, point for point with Kobe Bryant. And honestly, had it not been for a few meltdowns by his teammates (remember Trevor Ariza’s steal to end Game 1?), I firmly believe Denver would’ve won that series.

Then again, much like a relationship on the Jersey Shore, you know the good times just couldn’t last in Denver. There were too many head cases, too many egos, and too many neck tattoos for things to end pleasantly.

The storm clouds were definitely flying overhead.

3. Both Saw Their Relationship Fizzle In Large Part At Jealousy Of Their Friends: And really, there’s one single place that we can blame for everything: Miami.

Starting with Ronnie and Sammi, Miami is where their relationship officially took a turn for the worse.

Jealous of how much fun Mike, Vinnie and Pauly (or MVP as they prefer to call themselves) were having, Ronnie decided that for the show’s second season in Miami, he needed to be “Single Ronnie,” and free of Sammi’s reign of terror. Yeh, let’s just say that didn’t work out well.

It’s in Miami where we saw Ronnie at his worst, as he consumed enough vodka to kill an African elephant, and was in the presence of more “grenades,” than an embedded journalist in Afghanistan. The only thing that made matters worse, was that his girlfriend spent that same time bawling her eyes out at home, while he was out partying like Janis Joplin in the ‘70’s. Needless to say, it was bad.

As for Carmelo, well, Miami was the start of his downfall too, after he saw his three amigos LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, “Bring their talents to South Beach.” Much like Ronnie’s jealousy of “MVP,” Carmelo’s jealousy of the “Big Three,” manifested itself, when just weeks later (at his own wedding mind you), ‘Melo talked of joining forces with Amare Stoudemire and Chris Paul in New York.

The only problem was that ‘Melo still had a year left on his contract in Denver.

4. Both Situations Eventually Became Manageable, If Not Comfortable: And really, this is where the Groundhog Day parallel comes in.

On Jersey Shore, this entire season has been based somehow, someway on Ronnie and Sammi. They’re back together, but ultimately nothing is better. They’re again stuck in a house together, living in the same room and working at the same place. All of which has led to them fighting more than Hagler and Hearns. As usual.

‘Melo’s situation is more subtle though. While Ronnie is combustible and unafraid to start a war over anything, Carmelo spent the whole preseason trying to play off his situation in Denver like it was no big deal.

To his credit, he’s been a straight shooter from the beginning, telling everyone that he would play hard in Denver all year, but wouldn’t sign an extension after it. Say what you want about the guy, but at least he never gave ownership, his teammates or the fans any illusion that he was staying a Nugget beyond this year. I’m not saying that’s right. But it is at the very least a tiny bit decent.

Still, even with his blunt truth telling, all Carmelo did was make the situation tough for everyone, leading to…

5. Both Situations Ostracizing Everyone Else Around Them: Starting in Denver, all I can say is, umm, have you watched the Nuggets this year? They play with the same feel as a married couple that should’ve been divorced five years ago, but are, still together “for the sake of the kids.” The Nuggets have no cohesion, no chemistry, no energy, and nobody seems to care about anything other than getting through the game and going home. You know how people used to describe the Yankees as “having 25 guys take 25 cabs to the game?” Well the Nuggets are like 25 guys living in 25 different states. I’ve honestly had to stop watching them because the team is so depressing.

As for Ronnie and Sammi, well, much like ‘Melo they’ve hijacked this entire season of Jersey Shore and taken any potential fun out of it for anyone else. I honestly don’t think we’ve gone more than four minutes of any episode without seeing one of them crying, yelling, or breaking each other’s stuff. Honestly the whole thing has made me feel sick, like I would after watching a 24-hour marathon of Maury Povich  or listening to Antonio Cromartie give parenting tips.

And really, did anyone sum things up better than when the great philosopher Pauly D said “Am I supposed to be this stressed out about someone else’s relationship?” Couldn’t have said it better myself.

6. They’ve Both Had To Deal With Snitching: For Carmelo, it comes in the form of the famous “Stop Snitchin” video he appeared in a few years back. In the shore house, Vinny re-named Mike “The Situation,” Mike “the Snitch-uation,” last night, after he ratted out Vinny to Snooki about a prank they were playing on each other.

Am I reaching here? You bet. Whatever, leave me alone. I’m having trouble getting to 10 bullet points.

Let’s get back to your regularly scheduled column…

7. Both Have Played The Hand Dealt To Them Poorly, And Backed Themselves Into A Corner: Especially Carmelo, who screwed this thing up since Day 1.

By now you know the story, since it really hasn’t changed for six months. Here goes: Carmelo wants to be traded, which isn’t news. The problem is though, that upon getting traded, he also wants to sign a three-year $65 million extension, guaranteeing himself the most money possible, before the collective bargaining agreement changes this summer.

Which is all well and good, except no one is willing to trade for him, without knowing he’ll sign the extension. And since the only team Carmelo seems intent to sign the extension with is the Knicks, everything is in a holding pattern. New York won’t trade for him when they can sign ‘Melo this offseason, save assets and get him cheaper. And at the same time, no one else will make a move if they’re only getting him for a few months. It’s like the “Chicken and the Egg,” thing times 1,000. And it’s made Carmelo look like a fool.

Back in Jersey, Ronnie played his hand similarly, forcing a break up with Sammi, which was all well and good until…

8. Both Situations Got Clouded By Potential Suitors: In Jersey, bad went to worse, and eventually hit a tipping point, when we saw “Single Sammi,” unleashed for the first time. She partied with the girls, danced with a bunch of guys and took a whole lot of shots in between. Now, would she have ever actually considered fooling around with anyone else besides Ronnie? Probably not. At the same time, the whole thing sent her Ronnie into a tailspin (More on that coming).

What made it even more interesting, is that right around the same time, the Lakers reportedly threw their hat into the Carmelo sweepstakes. And like Sammi’s power play in Jersey, no one is quite sure what to make of it. Was it just a rumor leaked by Denver to make the Knicks feel threatened? Was it an attempt by the Lakers to get Andrew Bynum playing harder? Or was there some actual credence to it. We’ll never know.

But it made things interesting, leading to…

9. Both Situations Escalating To The Point of No Return: For ‘Melo, we’re here. This is it. His fans hate him. His teammates have turned on him. The public is tired of talking about him. And with the trade deadline approaching, something has to give. It’s put up or shut up time.

With Sammi and Ronnie, well, we saw the disastrous results. After Sammi’s night on the town, Ronnie went bonkers, going through her personal belongings, throwing around her clothes like a dog with a rag doll in its mouth, and smashing her glasses to pieces. Honestly, we can joke all we want about the Carmelo situation, but really it’s just basketball. The Ronnie and Sammi situation was real life, real people, and it was just depressing.

To Sammi’s credit she eventually decided it was time to pack her bags and hit the road for awhile. She left the shore house to clear her head, and truthfully it seems to be for the best. As Snooki explained to Ronnie in last night’s episode, the two just don’t seem right for each other. And while I’d normally be concerned with the state of America as a whole when Snooki is the voice of reason, in this case she’s right.

10. Both Situations Will Come To A Head Within The Next Week: It has to, right?

On the Jersey Shore, it appears more and more likely that Sammi will come back in the next episode. Why? Well, I’m not exactly sure. Love is definitely playing a part, and stupidity, naivety and insecurity too. Still, she’s an adult, so ultimately, what can you say?

From here though, it’s really anyone’s guess. Personally I would think that after everything Ronnie did in Miami, everything he did to crush his girlfriend’s feelings, he would’ve been more considerate this time around in Jersey. Did he really learn anything with her leaving the house in last week’s episode? That I don’t know. What I do know, is that something has got to change. Whether Ronnie is willing to do that or not, remains to be seen.

As for Carmelo, well, logically if something is going to happen, it will within the next day or so. It’s being reported that he’s meeting with New York and New Jersey officials over the All-Star weekend, while at the same time Denver’s brass is negotiating with those two teams separately. Something will go down in the next 24 hours. It’s just a matter of what.

Ultimately, do you want a guess from me? Well too bad, I’m going to give you one anyway. Carmelo will either become a Net, or remain a Nugget within the next week.  

Truthfully, I just don’t see New York having enough to bring to the table to make a deal with Denver happen. And of what the Knicks do have, the Nuggets want too much of it. Honestly, we’ve all known for nine months that ‘Melo wants to be a Knick. So if a deal was going to happen between these two, don’t you think it would’ve by now?

Which leaves it up to the Nets and Carmelo Anthony himself.

New Jersey has the pieces that the Nuggets want. They have the money to pay ‘Melo. But will he sign an extension there? If- after all this time- the answer is still no, than we’re right back where we started. ‘Melo will be a Nugget until the end of the season. Forget the Knicks. Forget the Lakers. Forget the Bulls, Bucks or Bobcats. It’s Nets or bust right now.

Just know that the ball is ‘Melo’s court, and it’s time for him to act. This ‘Melo drama has gone on too long, much like everything on the Jersey Shore.

Luckily, we should have a resolution to everything soon…

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