| 30 March 2010
I know I mentioned it yesterday, but it's really worth repeating: We're less than a week away from Opening Day of the Major League Baseball season. Wow!But with first pitch just days away, there is still a lot of preparation to be done, and I'm not talking about your favorite team deciding on their fifth starter. Nope, I'm talking about you making the final tweaks to your fantasy team.
On Monday, in Part I of the mega-preview, I provided fantasy baseball tips on how to approach the early rounds of your draft, and make sure that you get the best possible player with each one of your first few picks. Well I'm back again today, to provide you with additional information, on how to project sleepers, and avoid the busts that'll ruin your team. Remember, you don't win fantasy baseball championships by taking Albert Pujols or Hanley Ramirez in the first round. You win them by finding the best values in the latest rounds.
So sit back, relax and enjoy. And stick with this article until the end, when I reveal my 10 sleepers you need to know.
(Aaron's Note: I wanted to make a quick note on a schedule change for this week. Although I was planning on having my buddy Tom Finn on Wednesday afternoon to do a preseason baseball podcast, that has now been pushed back to Friday. I have something special running on Wednesday that I think you all will enjoy. We will resume baseball talk on Friday. Promise.)
Now, back to the fantasy baseball chatter, with my first tip for the later rounds:
1. Stay Away From Rookies: No, no, no. Don't do it. You're better than that. Seriously stop! STOP! Don't draft Jason Heyward. Or Stephen Strasburg. Or Aroldis Chapman. Please, for the love of God don't do it!
Because for all the talk about about these three potential superstars, the key word there is still potential. And while Heyward, Strasburg and Chapman may be great in two or three years down the road, they won't be this year. They'll still be drafted that way though.
Now don't get me wrong, I'm high on all three. How could I not be? Bobby Cox just called Heyward the best young outfield prospect he's seen, since...Hank Aaron. Damn.
But here's the thing that everyone forgets. While Hank Aaron may have evolved into one of the greatest home run hitters in the history of the game, it didn't happen overnight. As a matter of fact, Aaron hit just 13 of his career 755 home runs as a 20-year-old rookie in 1954. While Heyward may eclipse that 13, I don't think he'll hit 45 either. Which is key, the ability to differentiate what could happen from what will happen.
Remember, it was right around this time last year, that Baltimore catcher Matt Wieters was being touted as "Mauer with Power." Pretty lofty expecations for a guy who was 22 at the start of the season, and he ended up getting drafted based on that expectation. Well, "Mauer with Power," ended up spending the first two months of his season in the minor leagues, and finished with just nine home runs. He was hardly the value people projected him to be when they drafted him. Again if you drafted him, it was based on what could happen, rather than what would happen. Don't make that same mistake again this year.
So unless you're in a keeper league, let someone else deal with Heyward. Let someone else draft Strasburg. Let another manager through growing pains with Chapman. They'll be great, just not yet. And you'll be ready to pounce when they are.
2. Build A Deep Pitching Staff: While the early rounds should be reserved for getting power bats (and maybe one stud starter), it's the middle rounds where you want to build depth in your pitching staff. The way I look at pitching is the way actual Major League teams do: You can never have too much.
Unlike hitters, pitchers are hardly a proven commodity, or even consistently great. They come and go, the way 20-year-old females come and go from John Mayer's house. Over the course of the season, pitchers miss starts, lose command, get demoted to the minors and go down with shoulder, elbow and back injuries. Remember, it was just two years ago that Erik Bedard was a top 40 selection. Now he's hardly a top 400 selection, and the rest of his career is in jeopardy.
Which is why the middle rounds are when you need to hoard arms. Look high, look low, in Arizona, Milwaukee and Seattle. Get righties and lefties, starters and relievers. Hell, you might lose your best pitcher tomorrow and need to be prepared. You can never have too much pitching.
3. Don't Overvalue One Category Superstars, Specifically, Base Stealers: Way back in the mid '00's when I started doing fantasy baseball (Alright, I guess it wasn't that long ago), Major League managers were terrified to let their guys run. If you didn't take a Carl Crawford, Chone Figgins, Ichiro Suzuki or Jose Reyes in the first few rounds, you could all but kiss the stolen base category good-bye. Thanks for playing, see ya next year.
Well, it's 2010 now, and times are a changing. Much like a 40-year-old woman after two happy hour cocktails, managers have loosened up. They're giving guys the freedom to run, like it's 1984 all over again. All we need is Tim Raines in an Expos uniform, and Otis Nixon doing drugs in the bathroom and we'll be good to go.
But because more guys are stealing more bases, it has de-valued the true "base stealer," in fantasy baseball. At least as far as I'm concerned. While just a few years ago, guys like Jacoby Ellsbury and Crawford might be worth their weight in gold, now the market has
been flooded, not just with the handful of guys who'll get you 65 steals, but also with a bunch who'll get you 25 as well. And 25 home runs just to boot.Remember, drafting is all about extracting the maximum amount of value out of every pick. So I ask you, who is more valuable: Ellsbury stealing 70 bases but hitting only eight home runs? Or Justin Upton who will get you just 20 stolen bases, but 26 home runs, and more than 80 RBI as well?
And even if you miss out on those 25 home run, 25 steal guys (Upton, Ian Kinsler, Brandon Phillips, etc), this year the stolen base pool is deeper than ever. Take a late round flier on Dexter Fowler, Juan Pierre or Coco Crisp. Take a super late round flier on Evereth Cabrera or Alicides Escobar. If you absolutely insist on taking a guy who'll only get you steals, do it with Nyjer Morgan or Rajai Davis in the 12th round, rather than Chone Figgins in the third round.
I guess my point is, that there are many options for stolen bases in 2010. Ellsbury, Crawford and Figgins shouldn't be one of them.
4. There's No Such Thing As A "Hometown" Discount: This is a rule that I guarantee you will find only here, exclusively at AaronTorres-Sports. Let me explain.
In my 14 team head to head league (cough...previous champion...cough), almost every guy I play against grew up in New York. They're as big a group of Mets and Yankees fans as you'll find anywhere. All they need is a little hair gel and their own tanning beds, and they'd be just about set to star in next season of Jersey Shore. I wish I was kidding.
But Jersey Shore joking aside, it is in this league, that I have never once had a Met or Yankee on my fantasy roster. Why? Because everybody in my league goes crazy over them.
Seriously you should hear our war room on draft day: "David Wright's gonna hit 40 home runs! Phil Hughes is gonna get 24 wins! Brett Gardner is gonna win the triple crown!" Umm, no he's not. Thank you very much.
But really it's not their fault, we all get irrational with our teams. We can't help ourselves.
Whether we intend to or not, we get attached to a guy after watching him play 162 times over the course of six months. We know his strengths and weaknesses. We know what his body language looks like when he'd rather be at the strip club than the on-deck circle. We know when he had a tough night with his wife, or girlfriend, or in some cases both. Which is why I stay away from the "hometown," guys. Nobody can get a fair gauge on them.
And you should do the same. If you live in Los Angeles stay away from Dodgers and Angels. If you live in Chicago don't draft a Cub or White Sock. When it's a player on our team, one of our guys, we just can't be rational.
Which is why it's best to just stay away.
5. Finally, Don't Sacrifice Too Much Average For Too Much Power: This is my greatest piece of advice, and one of the biggest reasons I had a miserable summer of 2008 (Which by the way, I still don't want to talk about). During the draft, I did myself in and got way, way, way too starry eyed about guys that put up monster power numbers. Honestly, I felt like Tiger Woods in a V.I.P. room full of blondes, if I saw a guy who'd hit 25 or more home runs the previous year, I had to have him. I just couldn't help myself. (Honestly, like I said, I couldn't help myself. I've since realized that at the time, I felt entitled, and that's not how I was raised. Luckily, I've since gone to therapy for my transgressions, rediscovered my faith in Buddhism and am looking forward to a fresh start in the summer of 2010.)
Seriously though, don't make the same mistake I did. The key to anything in life (And obviously, fantasy baseball is no exception) is balance. If you're going to draft power hitters early that's great, I'm happy for you. Seriously I am. You and Mark Reynolds enjoy your summer together. I mean it. But make sure that for every .250 batting average, home run hitting monster you have, that you've also got two or three, boring, .320 hitting middle infielders on your roster as well.
I know that chicks may dig the long ball (And believe me, at one point in my life I did too). But there's also nothing wrong with a boring old, 4 for 6, three runs scored stat line either.
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Well folks, that's all she wrote. Or is it he. Whatever. Between yesterday and today, I hope I've helped you get ready for your 2010 Fantasy Baseball season, with Part I of my preview yesterday, and Part II of today.But why stop here? How about 10 more sleepers heading into 2010 just for good measure? Sounds like a plan to me!
(Also, be sure to check back on Friday, when I interview Tom Finn of CBS Sports, to get his take on the 2010 season.)
Here are my 10 Sleepers:
Catcher: Kurt Suzuki, Oakland: Ok, ok, I know, Suzuki is everyone's sleeper at catcher. But seriously, what do you want from me? It's catcher!
Either way, the guy has played at least 147 games, gotten at least 500 at bats, and hit at least .270 in each of the last two years. Plus he added 15 home runs and 88 RBI a year ago, all while playing in one of the toughest hitters parks in the game.
Again, catcher is thin, and I'm not a miracle worker here. But Suzuki is a better option than whatever Molina brother you'd end up with otherwise. Right?
First Base: Chris Davis, Texas: It's weird, because first base is almost the bizarro catcher. As in, there are so many good players, it's hard to find a true sleeper among them.
And although I just went on a tangent about how important batting average is, Davis is a guy to take a flyer on. Sure he only hit .238 last year, but most of that came early in the season. After returning to the big leagues from a minor league stint, he hit over .308. And he blasted 21 home runs in just about 400 at bats. Not too shabby.
Plus- and I can't emphasize this enough- he's playing in Texas. His stadium is a bandbox. There will be guys getting on in front of him. There will be protection behind him. And he's still not even 24. His numbers should improve immensely.
Second Base: Scott Sizemore, Detroit: Ok, so the rumors are true, I may be developing a little bit of a man crush on Sizemore. What can I say, look at the guy!
But seriously, Sizemore does everything you'd want from a middle infielder: hits for average, scores runs, and has absolutely ZERO competetion at second base in Detroit. And you can potentially get him in the last round of mixed league drafts. Grab him late and be patient. The payoff will be worth it.
Shortstop: J.J. Hardy, Minnesota: Why do I like him? Well, the guy hit 24 home runs just two year's ago, and is moving to a hitter's park in Minnesota. Not to mention Hardy's got a huge chip on his shoulder after getting the boot from Milwaukee. Plus, he's just reaching his peak years, as he'll be 28 in August.
Third Base: Martin Prado, Atlanta: Martin is my man. The classic, boring, "Does everything good, but nothing great," utility guy that fantasy championships are won with. In just under 400 at bats, he hit .307 with 64 runs, 11 home runs and 49 RBI in 2009, and has eligibility at first base and second base as well. Sign me up!
Outfield: Dexter Fowler, Colorado: Scored 73 runs and had 27 stolen bases in his rookie year, and is looking to be even better in 2010. This is the kind of guy you get in one of the last rounds of your draft, who makes your team championship caliber.
Outfield: Colby Rasmus, St. Louis: Yes, he batted just .251 last year, but similar to Fowler only has room to grow. And with Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols batting in front of him, the pressure should be minimal.
Outfielder: Cameron Maybin, Florida: Sensing a trend here? Maybin is mashing the ball in spring training, just a year coming in as a rookie. He's also Example No. 4127 of why you should avoid the overhyped first year players, and instead, take a chance on an underappreciated second year one.
Starting Pitcher: Ian Kennedy, Arizona: Kennedy is finally out of the fish bowl in New York, where every sneeze and burp is headline news. Not to mention he's been killing it in spring training, and is moving from the American League East to the National League West. I've got him on my team, and you should too.
Relief Pitcher: Chris Perez, Cleveland: Perez is filling in for the injured Kerry Wood, a pitcher who will likely be traded at the deadline anyway. Perez should be Cleveland's closer for the first two months of the season, and the last two as well. Not too bad for a guy you'll be able to get in the late, late rounds of your draft.
Check out Part I of Aaron's Fantasy Preview Here
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