| 29 March 2010
Alright, so for those of you who might not be college basketball fans, I’d like to apologize. I know here at Aaron Torres Sports it’s been a long time since I’ve yapped about anything but hoops. For those of you who have no interest, I am sorry.
But no need to worry my dear friends. Because with Opening Day less than a week away, it’s time to talk some baseball! In specific, fantasy baseball. Because as hard as it might be to believe, of all the fantasy sports, baseball is my favorite…By far.
Weird I know. But what can I say, I love, love, love fantasy baseball. I love the length of the draft. I love the length of the season. And I especially loved all the Ron Washington jokes that have been incoporporated into my draft's this year.
But what I really love about fantasy baseball, is that unlike the other fantasy sports, to win in baseball, it requires more knowledge and skill, than just plain old lucky.
Take basketball for example. You can draft well, play the waiver wire like Warren Buffet does the stock market, and make Rotoworld your daily toilet reading, but it just takes one bad injury to completely derail your season. It happened this past fantasy season with Chris Paul, and previous years with Dywane Wade and Yao Ming. If one of your best players goes down, you’ll never be able to replace his stats. It’s impossible. Lose Chris Paul and you’ve all but lost your season. No trophies, no mock applause from your friends. Just a big-time empty feeling in the pit of your stomach. Thanks for playing.
Baseball’s different though.
In baseball, injuries don’t come as fast and furious as the other sports and are usually more the result of wear and tear from a 162 game season than from one freak play.
Unlike the other sports, when you do lose a guy to a bum shoulder or bad back, you can usually see it coming a mile away, and can prepare accordingly. And unlike basketball, the waiver wire is always full of guys who can help your team, the benefit of having 30 teams with 25 man rosters shuffling players in and out of the minor leagues. Hell, in 2007 I picked up Carlos Pena and he ended up hitting 46 home runs for me. Try to find value like that after the draft in basketball. It’s impossible.
Of course, there are a few down sides to playing fantasy baseball too, namely that it’s a grind. A long, long, grind. These guys play six days a week, every week from the beginning of April until the end of September. And you’ve got to be following their moves every step of the way.
Believe me, it’s not easy. Especially when it’s August and you just want to be sitting on the beach drinking Coronas, instead of worrying about whether Emilio Bonafacio or Cody Ross is starting in left field for the Marlins. But again, fantasy baseball is a game that lends itself to the prepared, more than to the lucky.
So with that, how do you go about drafting, building and molding a championship team? No need to worry, as your old pal AT is here to help.
Today, we’ll run Part I, where I offer my five biggest draft day tips, which should help you put together the core of a successful team.
In Part II tomorrow, we’ll add some advice on how to approach the middle and end of your draft, and find the guys that may not put up monster numbers, but will fill out the remainder of your roster. I’ll also provide a list of sleepers to watch out for.
And finally on Wednesday, I’ll be talking to my old pal Tom Finn, formerly of CBS Sports, to get his take on the entire season and his thoughts on who you should be watching out for this upcoming season.
So again, for those of you who stuck with Aaron Torres Sports through the doldrums of March, I appreciate it. Baseball season is right around the corner, so be sure to check back here all week (and all season long for that matter), as we get you ready for the 2010 season!
Let’s talk some fantasy!
Rule No. 1: Go Into the First Round With A Game Plan: Look, it’s certainly excusable if you need some time to make your picks once the draft is a few rounds in. But in the first couple rounds, you should never, ever be hesitant. You need to be prepared.
And when I say prepared, I don’t just mean being prepared to take Albert Pujols with the first pick. Or Hanley Ramirez with the second pick. But prepared for a million scenarios if, say, you have the 10th pick. Do you know what the guys are thinking in front of you? Who they like and why? Do you know who will definitely be off the board? Are you certain that the guy you want will be there?
Take my 14 team, head-to-head draft this past week for example. I had the 10th pick, and after asking around amongst the various other General Managers in my league (Yes, that’s what we call ourselves. Feel free to make fun of us. We deserve it.), I thought I had a pretty good idea of who would and wouldn’t be available when I picked. Basically, in some order, these guys were going to go ahead of me: Pujols, Hanley, A-Rod, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Lincecum and Mark Teixeira. It didn’t really matter to me who went where, I just wasn’t expecting to see any of them when it was my turn to pick.
With those guys off the board, that left me with- in my mind- four options: Joe Mauer, Evan Longoria, Miguel Cabrera, or if I wanted to go off the radar, I felt pretty good about taking Roy Halladay. Again, I was preparing myself for anything.
I quickly eliminated Mauer from that list. Sure he’s a great player, but I don’t want my top pick missing a game every week to protect his knees. It’s like dating a super-hot, super-insecure girl. Sure, it seems nice on paper, be we all know it never works out in the end. I’ll leave the headaches up to someone else.
(Random side note: Just because I eliminated Mauer in my head, doesn’t mean that I stopped telling people that I really wanted him. In specific I knew one of my buddies drafting behind me liked him, and I wanted to keep everyone on their toes as much as possible. This is Reason No. 2181 why fantasy drafts are awesome: It’s an excusable and understandable reason to blatantly lie to your best friends.)
I also quickly soured on Longoria. It’s not that he isn’t a nice player, just that he went through a major swoon in June of last year, and didn’t really break out of it for two months. Sorry kid, I like ya, I really do, but I can’t risk you going 2 for 45 in the middle of the most 
important part of my season. Maybe in the second round, but not with my first pick. No thank you.
I also eliminated Halladay. Something concerned me about the fact that everyone is just assuming he'll run train now that he’s out of the AL East. It’s like gambling, if something seems like too much of a safe bet, it probably is.
So that left me with our old pal, Mr. .23 blood alcohol level himself, Miguel Cabrera.
Now did it concern me that last September Cabrera went out, got Lindsay Lohan level drunk and took a swing at his wife just hours before the biggest game of his season? Of course it did. And while I certainly don't condone domestic violence, I’m also not the guy’s lawyer or publicist, I just want to know is if he can put up stats. Well, he’s a .311 lifetime hitter and has averaged 35 home runs over the last two years in one of the toughest hitter’s parks in baseball, which is pretty darn good as far as I’m concerned. I don’t care if the guy is drinking Yoohoo or Captain Morgans, as long as he’s putting up those numbers. Hell, I’ll buy the guy his alcohol myself if he wins me a championship.
Anyway, after all that debate, all the tossing and turning, staying up lying, crunching numbers, lying to my friends about my interest in Mauer and everything else, I settled on Cabrera. I had my game plan, and he was my guy. I was prepared. Or so I thought...
Fast forward to draft day. As planned, the first three picks went exactly as expected: Pujols, Hanley and A-Rod. Easy enough, right?
Wrong. Just when the draft seemed to be hitting its groove and taking shape, the guy with the fourth pick selects…Evan Longoria…The guy that I didn’t even want at No. 10! Wow.
Obviously that pick turned the draft completely on its head, and sent the war room into a frenzy. Longoria at No. 4? What? Was this guy kidding? (That selection also led my buddy Mark to make the first of roughly 3500 Ron Washington jokes on the day, when he asked the kid who took Longoria, if he was on the Ron Washington "Good Stuff." Gotta love fantasy drafts.)
As planned, Utley and Lincecum went next and leaving my buddy Steve picking at No. 7, with a choice. He had been planning on taking Ryan Howard all along, but the better pick was Ryan Braun. Which Ryan would it be? Smartly, he stayed calm and took Braun. Like any good, prepared General Manager, he had a plan. But when he was forced to adapt, he did so perfectly. Good job Steve-O.
Next went Teixeira, and then another curveball, when, wait for it…wait for it… Mauer went off the board at No. 9!!!
At this point our draft reached prison riot proportions. Everyone started questioning the Mauer selection at nine, a few people were still yelling over Longoria at four, with my buddy Sam setting a mattress on fire just for effect. Ok maybe that last one didn't happen.
And of course, with all this commotion going on in the background, it was time for me to make my pick.
But despite the tornado around me, I stayed calm. And as much as I loved Miguel Cabrera, I knew I had no choice but to take Ryan Howard. Give me those 40+ home runs and 120+ RBI's any day of the week, thank you very much.
Again, though, it’s about being prepared. Sure I wanted Miguel Cabrera. I lusted after him for three weeks. I was ready to spend the next six months letting my life revolve around him.
But just like at the end of a long night at the bar, if something better comes along at the last minute, you’ve got to be willing to change the game-plan and adapt. I did just that and ended up with one of the best power hitters in the game. And it happened because I was prepared.
Rule No. 2: Don’t “Think,” In the First Few Rounds. Know: Again, let’s go back to the chasing girls analogy I just used. When you’re in the bar talking to a girl, you don’t want to be passive or indecisive. The passive guy is the one eating pizza at 2:30 in the morning while your girl walks off with some dude in a leather jacket. You’ve got to be firm and decisive.
Now what does this all have to do with fantasy baseball? Just like with the situation above, you absolutely, positively cannot be indecisive in the first few rounds of your fantasy draft. Otherwise, you’ll be eating pizza alone at 2:30, while Matt Holliday is hitting 35 home runs for someone else’s team.
Let me give you an example. A few years back, I was looking for a big bat in Round 3 of my fantasy draft. I hemmed and hawed, and finally took a flier on Travis Hafner over a few other big boppers (By the way, Hafner has to be the MVP of the “Guys who never officially got caught using steroids, but most definitely did,” All-Star team. Just saying.).
Sure Hafner’s numbers were down across the board the previous year, but come on, he was Hafner. He just had to bounce back. Which is how I justified making the pick.
But read those last few lines again. I “took a flier,” on him. He “had to bounce back.” Are those indecisive thoughts or what?
Again, part of this was probably lack of preparation on my end, but part of it was not being firm and wasting a very important draft pick. Hafner ended up getting hurt, playing in just 57 games, and was a complete albatross to my team. It was the only year I've ever done fantasy baseball and not made the playoffs.
And as much as I’d love to blame Hafner (and his “doctor,” for taking him off the juice), I can’t. It was my own fault. When I took Hafner, I was “thinking,” instead of “knowing.”
One of my first rules, is that there should never be any red flags in your first half dozen picks. They’re too valuable. I don’t care if a guy is coming off an injury, suspension, drug bust, deportation or starred in an off-season sex tape. If he's got baggage, let someone else worry about it.
I made that mistake and it cost me the season. Don’t let it do the same to you.
Rule No. 3: No Excuses, Play Like A Champion: Sorry, I couldn’t help myself. Here is my actual third rule...
Rule No. 3: Drafting Early Based On Position Scarcity Will Lose You Championships, Not Win Them: For those fantasy beginners who might not know what position scarcity is, let me give you a run down: It’s the principle that certain guys have more value early, because there aren’t as many good players at their position.
For example, think about all the first basemen that can get you big time power numbers: Pujols, Howard, Teixiera, Prince Fielder, Cabrera, Kendry Morales, etc. On the other hand, Joe Mauer might be the only catcher that can do the same.
Basically, if you pass on Mauer, there’s a pretty good chance you’ll end up being forced to take some unnamed Molina brother in the last round just to fill the position. It's simply really, there just aren't that many catchers that belt home runs. They're scarce. Hence the term position scarcity. Get it?
Position scarcity is one of the most debated topics in fantasy baseball, and everyone has their own opinion on it. Mine? It’s a crock.
When I’m drafting, I want the best player, regardless of position, every chance that I get to draft one early on. There might only be one catcher who can hit 30 home runs for a season, but there’s also only so many guys (regardless of position) who can hit you 40 home runs and finish with 120 RBI’s. Give me those extra 10 home runs, I’ll find a catcher later.
I don’t believe in position scarcity, I believe in talent scarcity. It’s like our oil reserves, once the big bats are gone, they’re gone for good (Sorry with the weird analogy, but I’ve been reading T. Boone Pickens’ autobiography, and it’s gotten me really interested in big oil and how it effects our economy. Yes, I’m a weirdo. Now, back to your regularly scheduled baseball talk). But again, give me the best players, and I'll worry about filling positions later. Even if that means I take Xavier Henry Molina to play catcher for me in the last round. I don’t care.
Because I’m full of examples today, let me give you another one to illustrate my point. I’m going to give you two guys (Without revealing their names until later) and their stats, and you tell me based on the blind taste test who you’d rather have.
Player No. 1: .279 BA, 45 HR, 141 RBI, 101 Runs, 8 SB
Player No. 2: .282 BA, 31 HR, 83 RBI, 112 Runs, 23 SB
Now, if you could only choose one of these players, it’d absolutely, unequivocally be Player No. 1 right?
Well what if I told you that Player No. 1 was being drafted on average 11th overall, while Player No. 2 was being drafted fourth overall. You’d think I was on the “Ron Washington Good Stuff,” right?
But it’s true. And if you haven’t figured it out yet, Player No. 1 is Ryan Howard, and Player No. 2 is Chase Utley. Position Scarcity 101 at its finest. There just aren’t a whole lot of second basemen who’ll hit you 31 home runs like Chase Utley does.
Again though, let me ask you this: Is it really worth giving up those 11 home runs and 60 (60!) RBI’s, just so you have the best second basemen in the game? Especially when you could have one of the best raw power hitters in the history of the game instead? Not to me it isn't.
So while Utley is going higher in most drafts, give me Howard and his stats all day. I’ll find a second baseman later.
Rule No. 4: Let The Draft Come to You: I know Rule No. 1 was to always be prepared, and truthfully, you should be. But as the draft moves along, you’ve also got to be flexible and quick on your feet. Feel everything out. Don’t force picks. Let the draft come to you.
Sure you may not like taking starting pitchers early, but if you don’t see any bats you like, grab that starter. If you took an outfielder in Round 1, but the best available player in Round 3 is also an outfielder, take another outfielder. Don’t get into too much of a set routine. You’ve got to take advantage of the opportunities where they present themselves.
Take my draft last week for example. Now I don’t like taking relief pitchers early, if at all, but in one of the middle rounds I was in a bind. All the truly elite starting pitchers were gone, as were the power guys. No more Ryan Braun’s, Matt Holliday’s, Adam Lind’s or C.C. Sabathia’s as far as the eye could see.
There was someone that caught my eye though, but no, I couldn’t possibly take him, could I? That man of course, was Mr. Mariano Rivera.
Again, as a general rule, I don’t like drafting closers. They're unpredictable. In any given season, most mentally or physically break down. And because of it, there are usually four or five new guys that will emerge over the course of the season that you can grab on the waiver wires.
Anyway, as much as I usually stay away from closers early, I had to take Rivera in this spot. Not only was I getting the best player at his position in one of the middle rounds, but also a guy who has made a career of staying healthy, in a spot where most players go down faster than bad guys in a Steven Segal movie. It was a no-brainer in every sense of the word.
So I ended up taking Rivera, not because of position scarcity, but again, because of talent scarcity. He was far and away the best player on the board at that point, and I jumped on him.I didn’t try to force a square peg into a round hole by taking a player I didn’t like. I let the draft come to me.
And you know what? I ended up with the best closer in the history of the game. Not bad, huh?
Rule No. 5: Everything Matters: Now I know what you’re thinking: “Everything matters? AT what kind of advice is that?” Great advice actually. Thank you very much.
Baseball is the fantasy sport where there are more peripheral things (beyond just talent) that you need to take into consideration before making your picks. In basketball, roll out the ball and you know Steve Nash is going to get you 16 points and 14 assists. Or that Joakim Noah is going to get you 10 points, 10 rebounds and two blocks. Or that Rasheed Wallace will get nine points, four rebounds and a technical. In baseball, not so much. You need to be prepared for everything. EVERYTHING.
Is the guy a traditionally slow starter? Does he hit a wall at the All-Star break? Is he a hitter playing in a pitcher’s park? A pitcher in a hitter’s park? Does he play in a city that’ll be freezing cold in April and September (Colorado, Chicago, Cleveland for example) or a city that’s a furnace in July and August? Will anybody be on base in front him? Is there anyone behind him in the lineup to serve as protection? Will his manager let him steal bases? Does his manager micromanage pitchers? How about overwork them (For this reason alone, I’ll never draft a Reds starting pitcher. Thanks Dusty Baker!).
Again there are 1000 peripheral things you need to take into account when making your draft picks, and when you’re done thinking them over, 1000 more. Make sure that you’re prepared for all of them...
***Make Sure To Visit Again On Tuesday For Part II of the Fantasy Breakdown, Including A List of Aaron's Sleepers For 2010***
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