A Break From Baseball: The NBA Draft
Yesterday I took some time away from baseball and responded to John Frascella's blog on Fan Nation about the O.J. Mayo- Kevin Love trade that took place during the NBA Draft.
The link is http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/221955, but I will transcribe it as well.
The original post from John:
Elsewhere, one of the headlines of the draft was the O.J. Mayo trade, following the night's official festivities. The Timberwolves sent Mayo, Antoine Walker, Marko Jaric, and Greg Buckner to the Memphis Grizzlies for Kevin Love, Mike Miller, Brian Cardinal, and Jason Collins. A very intriguing, but unusual deal.
The last couple of days before the draft, everyone seemed to be raving about Mayo -- fans, players, analysts, coaches and executives alike. As expected, the Wolves grab Mayo at the No. 3 spot, and everyone congratulates them. Some were even speculating that the Heat were going to pass on Michael Beasley in favor of Mayo at No. 2, which gives you an idea of the credit people give to O.J.
So why did Minnesota pass on Mayo's promise and ship him away to Memphis?
For starters, I think the T'Wolves felt O.J. is overrated, and they drafted him with the intention of trading him all along. They knew they could use the surrounding hype to get a number of different offers from teams around the league, the question in their mind was: which deal do we take?
I haven't heard the specifics of any other proposed deals, but I can't imagine this was the best offer out there for Mayo. I'll agree with Minnesota in believing that he won't be as good as advertised -- because he lacks the killer instinct and 48-minute intensity required to be a true winner in the NBA -- but they definitely should have received more in return for a player with so much natural ability.
Love is significantly more overrated than Mayo, and if Minnesota believes he's going to be a force in the post, they are sorely mistaken. Those of you who have been reading know I can't stand the guy as a player -- slow, undersized, unathletic, no explosion, poor defensive footwork, inconsequential wingspan, and a non-factor in the open court.
I like Mike Miller, he's a nice all-around player who knows how to fill up the box score, but he's not the type of guy who can turn an abysmal franchise around. I realize that the Wolves think the combination of Miller and Al Jefferson (over Mayo and Jefferson) gives them a better chance to compete on a night-to-night basis in the coming season or two, but it's not like they'll have any shot to make the playoffs. Pointless to mortgage the future on a good but not great player in Miller.
Like the deal for Memphis. Unlike Minnesota, they realize that they aren't going to be back in the playoff hunt for, at the very least, another two to three seasons, so they are looking to assemble a championship team for the future. They have an excellent start with the 1-2-3 trio of Mike Conley Jr., Mayo, and the sensational Rudy Gay. They'll need to address their frontcourt to be taken seriously in the coming years, but they remain the winners of the Mayo trade.
And my response:
Coach Frascella-
As much as I respect your opinions as a basketball expert, I do have to disagree with you on the trade involving O.J. Mayo and Kevin Love as the principles. As you said both franchises are still ages from making the playoffs, but I believe that had these two teams kept the pieces that they traded away, they'd be in better position to contend for a postseason berth sooner, rather than later.
For Minnesota, this pick was a no-brainer. In a draft that I feel had a lot of guys who will be good NBA players for a number years, only Derrick Rose, Michael Beasley and O.J. Mayo are potential "franchise changers," in my eyes. Mayo, with his penetration, passing and overall offensive skills, clearly is a step up from his prime competitors for the point guard position- Randy Foye and Sebastian Telfair.
[caption id="attachment_114" align="alignnone" width="150" caption="Why Kevin McHale? Why?"]
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Don't get me wrong, I've never been a big fan of Mayo. The arrogance in which he carries himself could fill all of Minnesota's 10,000 lakes. But keeping Mayo would have allowed the Timberwolves to win "more now," by allowing Mayo to handle the ball-handling responsibilities, create for his teammates and have more of a scoring capacity than he likely will in Memphis. Teamed with Al Jefferson, they could have become one of the elite young inside-outside combinations in all of the NBA. It also would have allowed Foye to utilize his skills as a primary scoring guard off the bench, a role he's more suited to play than running a first team NBA offense on a night to night basis.
Now let's look at Mayo's role in Memphis. The Grizzlies have two young point guards in Mike Conley Jr. and Kyle Lowry. While Mayo is a more talented player than Love (and we'll get to Love in a second), his role in Memphis becomes less defined, and with that will create one of two alternatives that will give coach Marc Iavoroni headaches all year (And after another losing season will ultimately lead to his firing). If he chooses to use Mayo in the capacity that he should be used- a ball-handler who runs the offense and uses his penetration ability to score and create for others- than that effectively eliminates Conley- a former fourth overall pick- from any true role in the offense. Playing Mayo off the ball would be an even bigger blunder since all the qualities that make him a great player- penetrating and finding the open man (either under the basket or on the wing) and scoring off the dribble, will be neutralized. Remember that although Mayo was USC's leading scorer, this was a guy who had to have the ball in his hands to be effective. He is a not a set shooter, nor a player who can score coming off screens. And if Memphis management thinks that Mayo will quietly accept a role as an off the ball scorer, they have another thing coming to them.
Onto Love. We all know his limitations. He isn't tall. He isn't athletic. He can't jump. He spends too much time in the mirror manicuring his pencil-thin mustache and beard. However, Love is a player who despite these limitations, knows his limitations. He's not going to command the ball. He's not going to force ugly shots.
What he will do is get you double digit rebounds every night (I know he would have had no help in the frontcourt in Memphis, but remember, in virtually every college game he played, his defender was more athletic and Love still managed to get his ten boards a night). Also, who's better at starting a fast break than Love? Remember all those easy baskets Darren Collison and Russell Westbrook got for UCLA last year. Now imagine Love hitting Conley to start the break, who in turn would either hit Rudy Gay for a monstrous dunk or Mike Miller for a corner three. Memphis still wouldn't win any championships with this lineup, but at least they'd be scoring points and be fun to watch.
Where does Love fit in Minnesota? They already have Jefferson- a player with Love's skill set who is simply better. If you play them together it creates clogging in the paint on offense since neither can score much more than 10 feet from the basket. On defense there will always be a mismatch, since neither is tall or strong enough to guard most of the Western Conference's centers (At least if Love was in Memphis he'd have Darko Milicic or Kwame Brown to protect his back). Minnesota has the option to bring Love off the bench, but when you have the third pick in the draft, do you really want to trade it for someone you don't see starting?
Maybe I'm wrong. Love and Mayo with their respective teams were two of the best performers in this summer's NBA rookie league. However, I'm not confident with both of these general managers trade history that this will work out (Memphis GM Chris Wallace is famous for trading a franchise center in Pau Gasol for two bench players in Brown and Javaris Crittendon and Marc Gasol, who may never even play in the NBA. Although Minnesota GM Kevin McHale is best known for trading Kevin Garnett and not getting Rajon Rondo in return, his favorite deal of mine was trading the rights to future NBA Rookie of the Year Brandon Roy for the rights to Foye, who in my eyes shouldn't even be a starter).
In any case I don't feel as bad for the players involved, as I do for the fans of these franchises who will have to endure another season of disappointment and the bag full of losses they're accustomed to. Look on the bright side Minnesota and Memphis fans, only 11 months until next season's NBA draft, your will preside in your familiar seat- the lottery.
On the bright side, the next greatd debate can begin. Who's got dibs on Hasheem Thabeet?
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Don't get me wrong, I've never been a big fan of Mayo. The arrogance in which he carries himself could fill all of Minnesota's 10,000 lakes. But keeping Mayo would have allowed the Timberwolves to win "more now," by allowing Mayo to handle the ball-handling responsibilities, create for his teammates and have more of a scoring capacity than he likely will in Memphis. Teamed with Al Jefferson, they could have become one of the elite young inside-outside combinations in all of the NBA. It also would have allowed Foye to utilize his skills as a primary scoring guard off the bench, a role he's more suited to play than running a first team NBA offense on a night to night basis.
Now let's look at Mayo's role in Memphis. The Grizzlies have two young point guards in Mike Conley Jr. and Kyle Lowry. While Mayo is a more talented player than Love (and we'll get to Love in a second), his role in Memphis becomes less defined, and with that will create one of two alternatives that will give coach Marc Iavoroni headaches all year (And after another losing season will ultimately lead to his firing). If he chooses to use Mayo in the capacity that he should be used- a ball-handler who runs the offense and uses his penetration ability to score and create for others- than that effectively eliminates Conley- a former fourth overall pick- from any true role in the offense. Playing Mayo off the ball would be an even bigger blunder since all the qualities that make him a great player- penetrating and finding the open man (either under the basket or on the wing) and scoring off the dribble, will be neutralized. Remember that although Mayo was USC's leading scorer, this was a guy who had to have the ball in his hands to be effective. He is a not a set shooter, nor a player who can score coming off screens. And if Memphis management thinks that Mayo will quietly accept a role as an off the ball scorer, they have another thing coming to them.
Onto Love. We all know his limitations. He isn't tall. He isn't athletic. He can't jump. He spends too much time in the mirror manicuring his pencil-thin mustache and beard. However, Love is a player who despite these limitations, knows his limitations. He's not going to command the ball. He's not going to force ugly shots.
What he will do is get you double digit rebounds every night (I know he would have had no help in the frontcourt in Memphis, but remember, in virtually every college game he played, his defender was more athletic and Love still managed to get his ten boards a night). Also, who's better at starting a fast break than Love? Remember all those easy baskets Darren Collison and Russell Westbrook got for UCLA last year. Now imagine Love hitting Conley to start the break, who in turn would either hit Rudy Gay for a monstrous dunk or Mike Miller for a corner three. Memphis still wouldn't win any championships with this lineup, but at least they'd be scoring points and be fun to watch.
Where does Love fit in Minnesota? They already have Jefferson- a player with Love's skill set who is simply better. If you play them together it creates clogging in the paint on offense since neither can score much more than 10 feet from the basket. On defense there will always be a mismatch, since neither is tall or strong enough to guard most of the Western Conference's centers (At least if Love was in Memphis he'd have Darko Milicic or Kwame Brown to protect his back). Minnesota has the option to bring Love off the bench, but when you have the third pick in the draft, do you really want to trade it for someone you don't see starting?
Maybe I'm wrong. Love and Mayo with their respective teams were two of the best performers in this summer's NBA rookie league. However, I'm not confident with both of these general managers trade history that this will work out (Memphis GM Chris Wallace is famous for trading a franchise center in Pau Gasol for two bench players in Brown and Javaris Crittendon and Marc Gasol, who may never even play in the NBA. Although Minnesota GM Kevin McHale is best known for trading Kevin Garnett and not getting Rajon Rondo in return, his favorite deal of mine was trading the rights to future NBA Rookie of the Year Brandon Roy for the rights to Foye, who in my eyes shouldn't even be a starter).
In any case I don't feel as bad for the players involved, as I do for the fans of these franchises who will have to endure another season of disappointment and the bag full of losses they're accustomed to. Look on the bright side Minnesota and Memphis fans, only 11 months until next season's NBA draft, your will preside in your familiar seat- the lottery.
On the bright side, the next greatd debate can begin. Who's got dibs on Hasheem Thabeet?