| 21 October 2011
Let's quickly get to the Week 8 picks:
Oklahoma State (-7) over MISSOURI: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. FX
Let’s get one thing out of the way: Missouri is a good team. I’ve been saying it since the Arizona State game, and I’m standing by it. Put them in the ACC or Big East, they’d be in the conference title race. Put them in the Pac-12, and they’d be right there as the third or fourth best team in the league. The problem is of course that they’re in the Big XII. And it’s the wrong year to be average in the Big XII.
And honestly, who better exemplifies that than Oklahoma State? A team that is normally “pretty good,” is exceptionally good this year. And like most all exceptionally good teams, to their credit, Oklahoma State is taking care of the teams they’re supposed. They’re winning on the road and overcoming deficits. For lack of a better term, they’re doing what they need to do. And I just don't see a reason they won't do the same here.
Again, I like Missouri. I think they’re a good team. This year Oklahoma State just happens to be better.
North Carolina (+10 ½) over CLEMSON: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ESPN
I’ve got so many questions (all good) on Clemson that I don’t even know where to even begin. In no particular order:
1. Given how good Tajh Boyd has been, why did it take 11 games to get serious playing time over Kyle Parker last year? Did Parker have incriminating photos of Dabo Swinney? Did he pay off the coaching staff with some of his baseball money? Did Boyd have some kind of infectious disease we didn’t know about? I want answers damn it!
2. Every time I’m watching a Clemson game on TV, the announcers point out that Sammy Watkins was the fourth ranked wide receiver in last year’s high school class. Wait, how is that possible? Who is doing these rankings? And who are these three mystery men that were supposedly better than him? Again, I want answers, damn it!
3. Most importantly, is Chad Morris single? Because if he isn’t, he should be right now. As a matter of fact, I’ll even volunteer to be his wingman. If needed, I'll be happy to fly down to South Carolina.
As for Saturday’s game, Clemson wins, but I’m thinking the spread is may be three points too high. It’s a noon kickoff, against a team that got embarrassed last weekend, and because of it, North Carolina plays their best game of the year. The problem is that like Oklahoma State-Missouri, the Tar Heels just plain aren’t as good as Clemson.
Give me Clemson by a touchdown.
Arkansas (-15 ½) over Ole Miss: Saturday, 12:21 p.m. SEC Network.
Hmm, so let me get this straight: Bobby Petrino likes running up scores as it is, and Arkansas fans get a sick thrill out of twisting the knife in Houston Nutt’s side (as my Ole Miss buddy Rick points out)? And the spread is only 15 ½?
Apparently they’re just giving away money down in Oxford. Arkansas might win this one by 40 (Sorry Rick).
Auburn (+21) over LSU: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. CBS
So just as I was sitting down to write this preview on Thursday night, I put out what I considered to be a seemingly innocent comment on Twitter, which said the following:
“It’s really too bad Auburn doesn’t have the receivers or quarterback to expose LSU without Mathieu/Simon. Could’ve made things interesting.”
Needless to say, that didn’t go over well with Auburn fans. I got a lot of responses; some of them good, some of them not so good, and some involving innovative swear words I’ve never heard of before. Good times!
What I will say though, is that enough of those Tweets shared a common thing which caught my attention. To paraphrase, I had more than a few Auburn fans tell me, “Doubt Clint Moseley at your own discretion. The dude is a gunslinger. He’s going to keep it close.”
Never one to ignore the fans, I decided to do a little research on Mr. Moseley, and came across quite a few tidbits on the guy.
As a matter of fact, here’s an excerpt I found from a column on AL.com:
But Powell, who is now the coach at nearby Jackson High, said Moseley expects success. This, after all, is an athlete who won five state championships in high school -- three in football and two in baseball.
"He's always been a winner, whatever he's done," said Powell. "He's a competitor. He doesn't like losing games -- or positions."
Other than an injury as a freshman at Leroy, Moseley hadn't ever experienced a setback like the one he struggled through in August, when Chizik and offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn chose Trotter as the starter after a long battle in camp with Moseley and freshman Kiehl Frazier.
Moseley was visibly upset during a subsequent media interview. An ESPN special that aired later showed the disappointment and what might have been surprise in his face when Chizik gave him the news.
"He thought he had a leg up," Powell said of Moseley. "When he didn't get job, he was disappointed -- maybe even embarrassed -- and just kind of stuck his head in the sand. He knew everybody down here expected big things out of him. He felt like he disappointed and let them down."
Now before we go any further, you need to understand one thing about me: I am a fool for gushing quotes from old high school coaches. It’s one of my weaknesses, along with chocolate and Reese Witherspoon movies. Tell me a guy “hates to lose,” or “he’d run over his grandma to get into the end zone” and I swoon. Literally.
As to how it relates to Saturday, well that quote, along with the absence of the “LSU three” is enough to convince that Auburn keeps it close. They probably won’t win- actually I’m certain of it- but I expect Moseley and Dyer to be able to move the ball better than most against the LSU defense, and on offense, Spencer Ware’s suspension probably hurts LSU more than Tyrann Mathieu’s or Tharold Simon’s do.
LSU wins. Auburn covers. And on Monday, I plan on reading more gushing excerpts about Moseley.
Don’t say you weren’t warned.
Georgia Tech (+3) over MIAMI: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ESPN
Here’s why I like Georgia Tech this weekend. Yes, their loss to Virginia was. I get it. But remember, it takes time to prepare for the triple-option, and Virginia was coming off a bye. Traditionally, ACC teams coming off a bye always have had the most success against Tech, and well, Miami, obviously doesn’t have that luxury. Not to mention that even if they did have time to prepare, the best defenses against the triple-option are the disciplined ones, and “discipline” has never been one of Miami’s strong suits.
Point being? I like Georgia Tech here, and honestly I’m not sure it’s close.
Penn State (-4) over NORTHWESTERN: Saturday, 7:00 p.m. Big Ten Network
Before we start, I just want to make one thing clear: Just because I’m picking Penn State DOES NOT mean I’m endorsing either of their quarterbacks…
…
Kidding Penn State fans. Geez, you guys are so sensitive sometimes!
In all seriousness though, I’m going to go back to the theory on Northwestern I used a few weeks ago when they played Michigan. If you remember, I compared the Wildcats to Duke basketball in the sense that they’re a smart, sound, fundamental team, but the second they go up against a team with more athleticism, they literally just can’t match up physically. Just in the same way that Duke wins 27 or 28 games in college basketball every year then gets stomped out in the NCAA Tournament, that’s what happens to Northwestern when they go up against teams that are just superiorly skilled.
And that’s what we have here. Say what you want about Penn State’s quarterbacks (and believe me, I’ve said it all), but their defense is really, really good. Not that you need proof, but look at what Penn State did against Alabama. They held the Crimson Tide to a touchdown less than anyone has all year.
Give me the Lions in a comfortable win. And speaking of the Crimson Tide...
ALABAMA (-29 ½) over Tennessee: Saturday, 7:15 p.m. ESPN2
Looking at this point spread, I can’t help but think one thing: Vegas is sick of getting crushed by the Crimson Tide (much like all their opponents, actually). Seeing that they’re nearly a 30 point favorite is Vegas’ way of saying, “Please, for the love of God, stop betting ‘Bama!! Please!! We’re begging you!! We are going to have to shut down our casino if you don’t!”
Guess what? I still like ‘Bama.
As many of you know, I’ve been writing a lot about the Tide a lot lately, if only because I’m fascinated by them. As I’ve said many times, it’s not just that they’re beating teams, but the brute force with which they’re doing it. Honestly, it’s almost like they’re taking things personally at this point.
And according to a really fascinating e-mail I got from a ‘Bama fan this week, they just might be. What he told me was basically that since the Auburn loss last year (sorry for bringing it up guys), Nick Saban and Kirby Smart have emphasized not only “finishing” 
games, but finishing them with authority. They’ve emphasized not letting up. Not taking a play off. Going for the kill on every single play, of every single series, of every single game. And apparently it’s working. Like I said, before, Alabama isn’t just good on defense; they’re like transcendently, overwhelmingly, intimidatingly good.
I’ll say Alabama 31, Tennessee 3. Sorry Vols fans, but for Alabama, it’s personal.
(Also, I’d to take a moment, take a break from this column, and say a quick prayer for Matt Simms.
Buddy, I’ll be honest: I don’t know if you’re going to make it out of Saturday alive. But if this is the last time you put on your pads and helmet, I just want you to know that it’s been a pleasure watching you these last few years. And if it’s any condolence, I always liked you more than your brother.
Good luck.)
NOTRE DAME (-9 ½) over USC: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. NBC
I really don’t have much to say about this game except that I think USC is way worse than their 5-1 record, Notre Dame is better than their 4-2 record, and that it gets proven on Saturday night.
Still, do I really have to take Notre Dame and the points? Please don’t make me do it. Please!
Washington (+20) over STANFORD: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ABC
You know what the most annoying trend of the early college football season is for me? People who still have Andrew Luck as their Heisman favorite simply because “he hasn’t done anything to lose the top spot?” Really? That’s the best reasoning you’ve got? Even as Trent Richardson runs over SEC opponents like the oversized kid in pee-wee, and Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin have put up equal or better numbers against better competition? Really? It’s just so stupid it blows my mind.
As a matter of fact, I spent 10 minutes trying to come up with a fair analogy, and the best one I have is this: Keeping Luck as your Heisman front-runner because he “hasn’t done anything to lose the 10 spot” is like saying “well, Pamela Anderson was considered the the best looking girl on the planet 15 years ago, and she basically looks the same as she did then, so in my mind, she’s still the best looking girl in the world.” No she isn’t. Others have passed her. A lot have passed her actually. Just like a lot of people have passed Luck in the Heisman race.
Now I’m not saying he can’t or won’t play himself back into the race by the end of the year. And if he puts up the same stats against Washington, Oregon and Notre Dame that he did against Colorado, Utah and Arizona, then I’ll definitely reconsider. But right now? I don’t even have him in my top three.
Anyway, I’m rambling, but I needed to get that off my chest.
As for this game in specific? I think Stanford wins, but at the same time, they have yet to face an offense nearly as explosive as what they’ll see from Washington Saturday. And I think it comes back to bit them.
The Huskies put up points. Stanford puts up just a few more.
Wisconsin (-7) over MICHIGAN STATE: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ABC
Let’s be honest, if you’re a fan of Clemson, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, LSU, Alabama, Boise or Stanford, you better be rooting damn hard for the Spartans Saturday night. Simply put, if Wisconsin gets through this game, they will go undefeated. Mark it down, write it in ink, take it to the bank, and get ready for Mark May to yell at you for the next six weeks. It will happen.
And for the record, I do think they get the win. Truthfully, I’m actually thinking this is a higher scoring game than most people project it as. We know Wisconsin can move the ball, meaning that what this game likely comes down to is if they can stop Michigan State. The Spartans looked pretty good last Saturday, but we do need to remember one tiny detail about their win… it was against Michigan. I’m pretty sure I could run for 100 yards against them. Ok, maybe not, but they’re still pretty lousy, especially along the defensive line.
I think both teams score, and score a lot. But in the end, give the best player on the better team.
On Wisconsin!
Or better yet, On Russell Wilson!
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