| 30 September 2011
After spending all afternoon yesterday writing about baseball...yes, baseball yesterday, I'm a bit behind this morning.
(Aww, screw it, let's talk a tiny bit more baseball: Here are my divisional picks: Tampa Bay over Texas in five; Detroit over New York in four; Philadelphia over St. Louis in four; and Milwaukee over Arizona in five.
Cut to the World Series, and I've got Philadelphia over Tampa in a re-match of the 2008 World Series.
And in case you're wondering, yes, by all means I expect you to throw these picks in my face in a few weeks)
Now, with all that said, let's get back to college football, for some picks here too. As always, home teams are in capital letters, and the picks are against the spread, not necessarily who I think will win straight up.
As always, feel free to tell me how bad I messed up in the comments section below, on Twitter @Aaron_Torres or by e-mail at This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it .
Enjoy!
GEORGIA (-7) over Mississippi State: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ESPN3
I know I’m not the first one to say it, but I’m going to throw it out there anyway: Being a Georgia fan (or even just being a dopey fool like me who picks them in columns like this) really is like being in an abusive relationship. Just when you think they’ve turned the corner, just when you think everything is ok, just when you think you’re ready to move on and live happily ever after…they end up stumbling in the door at 2:30 in the morning with lipstick on their collar and beer on their breath (Or choking as a touchdown favorite. You pick the analogy which fits best).
But while every fiber in my body tells me that I’ve seen Georgia in this situation too many times before and that they’re going to let me down again, for some strange reason, I’m sticking with them here. Why? I’m not entirely sure, but I still feel the same way about them that I did a week ago before the Ole Miss game: For whatever they lack in the normal skill and depth that most SEC teams have, they make up for it by playing really hard for Mark Richt. That might not mean much when they play some of the better teams in this conference later on in the year, but against a team with comparable talent like Mississippi State, I think it’s the difference Saturday.
(Of course if Georgia lost by three touchdowns I wouldn’t be surprised either)
Texas A&M (-2 ½) over Arkansas (at Cowboys Stadium, Dallas): Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ESPN
So much of college football is timing. Catch the right team, on the right day, under the right circumstances, just about anyone can beat anyone else. Take North Dakota State’s win over Minnesota last week…ok, bad example. I actually think North Dakota State might just be the better team.
In all seriousness though, I think this is just a bad spot for Arkansas. It’s one thing to be coming off a tough loss, which is exactly what both A&M and the Hogs are dealing with right now. But it’s quite another thing to be coming off a loss the way that Arkansas got beat down in Tuscaloosa last weekend. Again, it wasn’t just that the Razorbacks got beat, but that they were physically overwhelmed by a team that was just bigger, faster and stronger than them. As I joked with someone earlier this week, it’s going to take a pretty strong rainstorm to get rid of all of the blood stains Tyler Wilson left on the turf at Bryant-Denny last Saturday.
Point being, for Arkansas to play such a physically exhausting game last weekend, and then to be asked to come back seven days later and do the same against a team as good as A&M is just cruel.
Had Arkansas played, say Ole Miss last weekend, and could ease their way into this one, I’d feel a lot better. But with plenty of bumps and bruises- both physically and emotionally- from Alabama last Saturday, A&M wins and covers.
Northwestern (+8) over ILLINOIS: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ESPN2
As far as I can tell, this is the most skewed line of the weekend.
I mean, I get that Illinois is 4-0, and probably deserves to be ranked. But what exactly have they done to be more than a touchdown favorite here? Is it that thrilling three point victory they had against Western Michigan last week? The win over Arkansas State in Week 1? Or a victory over Arizona State that was such a clear let down game, that just about everyone (including someone as stupid as me) picked the Illini to win even as Arizona State was coming off their biggest win in years.
Point being that I’m not buying Illinois…yet. Northwestern isn’t crazy talented, but is experienced and is capable of winning.
Also, are you really backing Ron Zook here? Really?
Kentucky (+27 ½) over LSU: Saturday, 12:21 p.m. SEC Network
All I know about this game is the following: LSU is the No. 1 team in the country, and…this is a terrible spot to pick them to cover. At home, in an 11:30 kickoff, in a game where they know they have the physical advantage at every single position, after three marquee games in four weeks? I expect the Tigers to come out flatter than Randy Edsall’s buzz cut. LSU wins but Kentucky covers, with a final score somewhere in the neighborhood of 27-10.
And since I don’t have anything more to discuss about the game itself, let’s chat about something much more interesting: The return of Jordan Jefferson from suspension.
For the record, I’m happy to hear that Jefferson is in the clear, and allowed to return to football. I’ve watched a lot of LSU games during Jefferson’s career, and for whatever shortcomings he’s had on the field, I've never gotten the impression that he's a bad kid off of it. Jefferson deserves to be able to return to football and get some semblance of normalcy back in his life.
But with that said, I think it’s the worst possible thing that could’ve happened to LSU’s football team.
Understand that’s not an insult to Jefferson, Lee or even Les Miles. It’s just that LSU is an incredibly tight team, and there are a lot of guys who really, really like Jordan Jefferson. As my buddy Carter Bryant pointed out on my podcast last week, a lot of the guys on the team wrote a number “9” on their cleats to honor Jefferson while he was suspended, and I noticed a few of them etched the number on their biceps in ink last week at West Virginia too.
And really, that’s where my concern lies. Mainly that there was already a divide in that locker room between the two quarterbacks to begin win, and it’s only going to intensify if Lee struggles even just a little bit. Even if he doesn’t struggle, the simple truth is that Jefferson brings things to the table that Lee simply does not, and should probably play at least some snaps because of it. Simply put, having an available Jordan Jefferson makes LSU a better football team on paper.
Yet again, that’s the problem. Football isn’t played on paper, and a lot like a basketball team, putting the best 11 guys on the field, doesn’t necessarily make for the “best team.” To further the hoops analogy, Lee is a lot like a really good point guard right now; someone who is getting everyone the ball- be it Spencer Ware, Odell Beckham, Ruben Randle, whoever- in the position that is most conducive to him. Adding Jordan Jefferson to the mix would be like adding Chris Paul to the Miami Heat. Does it make them a better team on paper? Of course. But is it the right fit for the guys that are already there? That’s another question all together.
Right now, LSU is a team that is playing far and away better in all three phases of the game right now than anyone else in college football. They don’t need any complications. And good or bad, Jordan Jefferson does complicate things.
It’ll be interesting to see how Miles handles things from here.
Anyway, moving on…
Arizona (+13 ½) over USC: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ABC
So far this year I’m 2-0 picking against Arizona, and 2-0 picking against USC. What to do, what to do…
Aww, screw it, give me Arizona. The truth is that whatever USC was four or five or even two years ago, they aren’t now. The Trojans have no depth, and as we all know by now, are poorly coached. Really the drop off from Pete Carroll to Lane Kiffin would be like driving a Maserati to work every day for nine years, then all of a sudden one day, being forced to ride a 10-speed bike instead. I’ve tried to defend Kiffin over time, but at this point, he’s indefensible. This team has seemingly gotten worse by the day since he’s taken over as head coach.
Oh, and one more thing. I wasn’t going to say it, but I’ve got to get it off my chest: Matt Barkley is overrated. There I said it. And boy, do I feel better.
Look, I know that you can’t blame all the Trojans problems on him, and if anything, like the rest of his teammates, a large part of his struggles have come from inferior coaching. You definitely can’t blame him for that. But at the same time, everyone seems to give Barkley a pass as the struggles for USC continue. And at some point, some of the blame has to go on the quarterback.
And another thing, I wish announcers would stop forcing it down my throat that he’s a future first round NFL Draft pick. Honestly, I don’t care. I don’t care about all the intangibles, all the physical skills, how he can throw 40 yards downfield across his body. That’s wonderful. How about you beat Stanford or Oregon, or really even anyone half decent instead.
Anyway, I’m just rambling at this point. All I’ll say is that in regards to Saturday’s game, what it comes down to is this: Everyone knows Arizona sucks, but for some reason, a lot of people still haven’t figured out the same about USC. There is no way this team should be a two touchdown favorite against anyone.
OHIO STATE (-3) over Michigan State: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ABC
I’ve got one thought and one thought only on this game: If their loss to Notre Dame proved anything two weeks ago, it’s that Michigan State just isn’t that good. As my buddy Adam Jacobi pointed out on our podcast this week, the Spartans not only struggled to run the ball, they were literally incapable of it. And if Michigan State couldn’t run the ball, I don’t expect things to be much better this weekend against Ohio State.
The truth is that I really don’t think either of these teams is very good right now. At the same time, I think Ohio State will get there eventually. I don’t really feel the same about Michigan State.
SOUTH CAROLINA (-10) over Auburn: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. CBS
If we’ve learned anything about South Carolina over the years, it’s that they’re as front-running as a team can get.
Put them in a Saturday afternoon kickoff against Vanderbilt, and you’ll get what you got last week: An overall sloppy effort, four Stephen Garcia interceptions and about a million people making the same, “Maybe Steve Spurrier should just let Garcia have a beer or two before kick-off, he seems to play better when he’s a little buzzed,” jokes that I did. Good times. Unless you're a South Carolina fan.
Of course at the same time, put the Gamecocks in a big game, and they can beat anyone. Just ask Alabama last year. In a way, South Carolina is like Jekyll and Hyde…only if Jekyll and Hyde were diagnosed as bi-polar and forgot to take their medication.
Anyway, coming off a season last year when they lost to Auburn twice (with one of the games being winnable), I expect the Gamecocks to come out fully focused and give their best effort. You can’t say that very often, but when you do, watch out. When they want to be, South Carolina is still a very dangerous team.
Clemson (+7) over VIRGINIA TECH: Saturday, 6:00 p.m. ESPN2
Don’t worry, I already know what you’re about to tell me: Much like smoking cigarettes, binge drinking and watching too many consecutive episodes of The Big Bang Theory, selecting Clemson in your weekly picks column could be hazardous to your health. Really, the Surgeon General should put a warning on the side of their helmets or something.
So why am I picking Clemson? It’s because if we’ve learned anything this year, it’s that when a team steps up in competition after playing nothing but cupcakes in previous weeks, they usually struggle. Off the top of my head, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Michigan State and USC all fit that category. Each looked bad when they actually had to step-up and play a team with comparable talent as them.
Well, welcome Virginia Tech to the same club. I’m not saying they’ve played a lot of cupcakes so far…ok, who am I kidding, that’s exactly what I’m saying. The Hokies have feasted on so many cupcakes so far this season, I think Jenny Craig staged an intervention about their sweet tooth earlier this week.
Ultimately, I’m not saying Virginia Tech can’t or won’t win here. But until I see them take a step up in competition, I’m pegging this as a field goal game.
FLORIDA (+4) over Alabama: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. CBS
Speaking of a field goal game, I give you Florida and Alabama.
By now, you obviously all know how I feel about both of these teams, so I won’t waste too much of your time. Alabama is just, well Alabama. They’re such an efficient machine, it’s almost surreal watching them. As for Florida, well, the column I wrote on them for Crystal Ball Run last weekend was so complimentary, that it probably should’ve come with a courtesy gift bag for every reader. Seriously, I never thought I’d see the day where I was so nice to Charlie Weis and John Brantley, but really they’ve been fantastic together this year.
Anyway, I’ll wrap up by saying that in discussing this game with people late last weekend, the biggest surprise to me, was that everyone was quick to say, “Well, how is Florida going to move the ball on this Alabama defense?” without asking the proper follow-up question. That is of course,“Well, how is Alabama going to move the ball on this Florida defense?” The Gators might not be quite as good as the Tide on that side of the ball, but they’re really close. And almost as well-coached with Will Muschamp as well.
Whoever wins this game (and I’m still not entirely sure who it’ll be) won’t win by more than a field goal.
WISCONSIN (-9) over Nebraska: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ABC
So umm, this is probably going to get awkward. Yesterday, I got involved in a conversation on Twitter with a Nebraska fan, we shared some discussion, and because of it, I ended up with about 10 new followers, all of whom are Cornhuskers fans. Thanks for the new follows, guys!
But while I appreciate you following, I just don’t think Saturday will turn out well for you all. I’m sorry, but it’s true.
Understand that it’s one thing to go on the road, into one of the most hostile environments in college football, and do it in your first game as a member of a new conference. That’s really, really hard as is. But to do it with a struggling defense, and to go against quite possibly the best quarterback in college football? That’s just not fair. I know Russell Wilson hasn’t gone against anyone quite as good as Nebraska this year, but you know what? I don’t care. The guy is that good. As a matter of fact, I’m going to say it right now: I think he wins the Heisman.
This point spread may seem big, but by Saturday night, I doubt anyone will be questioning it anymore.
Wisconsin cruises to a big, big victory. Sorry Big Red.
Now, let’s get the Fan’s Take:
Matt Hubacher (@GamingIncCEO) writes in:
Illinois is 4-0 for the first time since Red Grange, and this week the Illini look to make it five in a row against their in-state rivals. The Zooker certainly has his guys clicking on all cylinders early in the 2011 campaign. Not only is Illinois among the tops in the nation in rush offense (241.8 rush ypg/4.9 rush ypa), they are also a big play pass offense averaging 8.7 ypc. The defense is stuffing the run to the tune of 56.5 yards per game and is allowing only 4.5 yards per play.
On the other side of field is Northwestern who seems to be getting back QB Dan Persa, last year's 1st Team Big Ten quarterback off a an Achilles injury. Many prognosticators are suggesting that Persa's return will provide a much needed boost to the Wildcat's offense. I don't think that's going to be the case. Early word from the Northwestern program was that Persa would be ready for the season opener, then came word that Persa was having difficulty running. I have a hard time believing that Persa will be 100% ready to go come Saturday, and even if he is, Illinois is not the type of team against which one can shake off rust without hurting the team. The Illini enjoys advantages in both first down and punt differential, and they should control the line of scrimmage against a smaller team.
(Love the article? Hate it? Disagree with something Aaron said? Let him know by commenting below, e-mailing him at This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it .
Also for his continued take on all things sports, and updates on his articles, podcasts and giveaways, be sure to follow Aaron on Twitter @Aaron_Torres, Facebook or by downloading the Aaron Torres Sports App for FREE for your iPhone or Android Phones
And finally, remember, if you enjoy Aaron Torres Sports, and plan on using Amazon.com in the future, please use the link on the right-hand side of this website to make your purchase. In the process, your purchase won't be impacted, however a small percentage does go to to this website, to keep it up and running)
