| 14 October 2011
You know how ESPN comes up with goofy, gimmicky names for every weekend of the college football season? Stuff like “Showdown Saturday,” or “Rivalry Week”?
Well, if I were naming this college football weekend, it’d be “Oh my God, maybe I’ll actually hang out with my family, Saturday.” I know it’s not as catchy as some of the other titles, but I think it’s applicable. Quite frankly, I can’t ever remember a worse college football slate than this one. Hell, I’ve seen funeral precessions more entertaining than what we’re about to get Saturday.
But just because this Saturday is a bit…ahem, slow, doesn’t mean that the college football preview won’t go on. After missing last Saturday’s games because of travel, I’m back, and ready to pick this weekend’s biggest games. And of course I use the term “biggest,” loosely.
As always, the home team is in CAPS, the point spreads are provided by BETUS.com, and I am picking against the spread, not straight up. Also, at the bottom you'll see the weekly "Fan's Take," submission. As always, if you want to get involved, feel free to send in a quick write-up on any game you please, and I'll be sure to add it along with my picks in the weekly preview. For more information on the Fan's Take, please click here.
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Anyway, let’s get to the picks!
MICHIGAN STATE (-2 ½) over Michigan: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ESPN
I just refuse to believe Michigan is this good. It just can’t be true. I won’t believe it.
Now, does that mean I don’t like Brady Hoke? Of course not. I fascinated by the man, right down to the fact that just by looking at him, it’s pretty clear that he spends at least 30 minutes a week in a tanning bed. I’ve never been to Michigan, but I’m comfortable saying that by mid-October, nobody in the entire state is should be that tan. Well, at least without some “natural enhancement,” anyway.
Regardless, I’m getting off on a tangent here. Just know that Michigan is small up front, and thin overall on defense, and definitely hasn’t played a team with the power running attack that Michigan State is going to bring to the table Saturday afternoon. If Michigan State can’t win with their size in the trenches, in a rivalry game, at home, then I really don’t know who’ll beat the Wolverines between now and a potential matchup with Wisconsin the Big Ten Championship Game.
Simply put, I’m not ready to live in a world where Michigan is a 10 or 11 win football team. Not this soon anyway. Sparty by a touchdown.
Baylor (+9 ½) over TEXAS A&M: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. FX
So wait, umm, did I miss something? Was Robert Griffin arrested? Did Kendall Wright flee the country? Did Art Briles resign as head coach and Ken Starr named himself as a replacement?
No?
Then can someone please explain why Baylor- a team which can score points on anyone- is close to a double-digit underdog to a team that has given up an average of 39 points a game over their last three games? Other than Kenny Stills' haircut, this is the most illogical thing I’ve seen in college football in a long time.
Give me Baylor and the points. This is the most skewed line of the week.
South Carolina (-3) over MISSISSIPPI STATE: Saturday, 12:21 p.m. SEC Network
So what will you remember most about the Stephen Garcia era?
Is it the flowing locks and handsome beard? The five suspensions, including two before his freshman year even started? The girls he snuck into his room prior to a bowl game? Or the fact that when he wanted to be, that dude was just about as good as nearly any quarterback in the country?
In all honesty, that’s the saddest part to me about the Stephen Garcia era. People are going to remember his look and remember the partying, but they’re going to forget that he was tough as nails, won a lot of big games, and that he was the only person to ever lead South Carolina to an SEC East title. Seriously, it had never been done until Garcia arrived on campus (Then again nobody had ever drank a full 30-pack of beer, a liter of Jack Daniels and a gallon of margarita mix in one sitting before Garcia arrived on campus either. And yes, I’m kidding). Not to mention that during his time on campus, Garcia beat the No. 1 team in the country as a junior, and nearly did the same as a sophomore as well against Tim Tebow’s Florida team.
But at this point, it really isn’t about football. Not to get too sappy here, but I wish Garcia nothing but the best going forward. Clearly he’s got much bigger issues than what happens between the white lines, and hopefully he gets some help for them.
Garcia’s football career may be over, but his real life is about to begin. And I hope it goes better than his last few weeks at South Carolina did.
I also hope that someday we can remember him for what he did on the field, than off of it.
NORTH CAROLINA (-3) over Miami: Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ESPN3
To steal a line from popular sportswriter Bill Simmons, Miami is a classic “Zig, zag team.” Just when you think they’re going to zig, they zag. Just when you think they’re going to zag, they zig. And just when you think they’ve turned the corner, Jacory Harris throws four interceptions and they lose by 24.
Anyway, I’m not sure whether they zigged or zagged last week, but after nearly pulling an upset at Virginia Tech, if they hold true to form I fully expect the Canes to come out flat Saturday. Miami is the better team, but that means little when you’re dealing with this particular group of Canes.
LSU (-17) over TENNESSEE: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. CBS
For those of you keeping score at home, I want to be on the record, and want everyone to know that I was aboard the Tyrann Mathieu bandwagon long before anyone else. Truth be told, I love the guy about as much as one man can platonically love another.
As a matter of fact, just to prove my point, I’ve come up with a nifty timeline to show you exactly how far the two of us actually go back.
(And in case you’re wondering, yes, this will be used as “Exhibit A,” in a court of law, when I’m charged with stalking after setting up a tent outside Mathieu’s dorm room in Baton Rouge)
May 13, 1992: Tyrann Mathieu is born to Tyrone and Shelia Mathieu in New Orleans, LA. As a seven-year-old in Connecticut, I instinctively wake up out of a cold sleep, knowing that something great just happened. I’m not sure what, but I know that someday I’ll find out.
November 14, 2001: A massive hurricane sweeps the East Coast, wiping out power in my hometown for three days.
I later come to find out that it was just Tyrann Mathieu sneezing.
October 9, 2010: Fast-forward to Mathieu’s freshman year. LSU is playing Florida in the Swamp, and for the first time, Mathieu makes a name for himself in front of a national TV audience, forcing a fumble and recovering it. This is the first of approximately 200 times that I will Google Mathieu’s name during the 2010 season wondering “Who the heck is that guy?”
It is also the first of approximately 522 times which I double-check to see if I’ve spelled his name correctly.
June 27, 2011: I buy myself a pet goldfish, and in honor of Mathieu, name him Tyrann. Upon placing the goldfish in his bowl, he jumps out, walks to the kitchen and makes a peanut butter and jelly sandwich, before grabbing my girlfriend by the arm, and taking her out to a movie.
Somehow, this seems entirely appropriate.
August 22, 2011: In an SEC Preview for the website Crystal Ball Run, I actually write this, explaining who I think is the best defensive back in the SEC entering the 2011 season:
Again, picking one guy in this group is like going to a Victoria’s Secret fashion show and having to choose one model. In essence, why would you make me do it? Looking across the board, you could go in a million different directions. There is Dre’ Kirkpatrick, Robert Lester or Mark Barron all of Alabama. Or maybe Tremain Thomas at Arkansas, Stephon Gilmore at South Carolina or Georgia’s Brandon Boykin. Hell, how about Morris Claibourn at LSU, who had the benefit of playing across from Patrick Peterson last season, and ultimately got five interceptions because of it.
But with all that said, I’m going to stay at LSU, and go a bit off the radar. Give me Tyrann Matheiu.
If you don’t Matheiu’s name, its ok, you’re going to get to know it real quick. The 5’9 sophomore didn’t start in 2010, thanks in large part to the brilliance of Peterson, and to a smaller degree Claiborne. However, as someone who watched as much LSU football as I could last year, trust me when I say that it was impossible not to notice Matheiu. He finished his freshman campaign with 4.5 sacks, five forced fumbles and two interceptions, as well leading the country in “Guy whose name was Googled the most by confused, intrigued college football fans.”
Matheiu may not have the size or overall speed that Peterson did, I get it. But pound-for-pound, inch-for-inch, he is every bit the football player.
You will notice him this year. I can promise you that.
Yes, I know what you’re thinking: “Aaron plagiarized that Google joke from himself, that’s messed up.” And you’re right.
Still, I actually wrote that…in August! I’ve got to get partial credit, right?
October 8, 2011: Finally, fast forward to last weekend, and after six weeks of waiting, Erin Andrews finally gets around to doing a College Gameday profile of Mathieu (what the hell has she been doing all fall? Geez!). And in it, our old pal Les Miles has the quote of the century about his star defensive back, explaining where his nickname “The Honey Badger,” came from. Miles said of the honey badger (the animal, not the player):
It attacks snakes, goes in beehives, it gets stung, it gets bit by cobras. The personality that is depicted by the honey badger… I see that in No. 7.
Needless to say, that ESPN profile may have been one of the 10 defining moments of my entire life.
So what do I expect this weekend from old No. 7?
Well, I’m thinking Mathieu finishes with 10 tackles, three TFL’s, an interception, a forced fumbled…and of course one restraining order against me.
LSU 31, Tennessee 10
TEXAS (+7 ½) over Oklahoma State: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ABC/ESPN
So here’s the thing: Since I didn’t watch Texas-Oklahoma last week, I don’t know what to make of the final score. Was Oklahoma just that good? Was Texas just that bad? Is it possible that the entire Longhorns roster was suffering from some weird strand of Mad Cow disease we just don’t know about? Again, I don’t know.
And because of that, I’ll take Texas strictly as a situational play here: There’s no way Texas could possibly be as bad as they were last week, and after scoring 70 points, there’s no way Oklahoma State can be quite as good. Add to the fact that pretty much everyone has been able to move the ball on the Pokes this year (they’re 103rd in the country in total defense), and the fact that Texas is at home, and I think we end up with some kind of fun, 37-31-ish type shootout.
Call me crazy, but I just can’t imagine that Texas is as bad as last week’s final score might’ve indicated.
Ohio State (+3 ½) over ILLINOIS: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ABC/ESPN
Simply put, I just can’t live in a world where Ron Zook is the coach of a 7-0 football team. If that happens, it’ll seriously go against everything I’ve ever believed in. At that point, someone might as well tell me that the Earth is flat, that the sky is purple and that Whitney Cummings is funny. I’m just not ready for it.
So I’ll go ahead and take Ohio State here.
Illinois has only played one team with an even half-decent rushing attack (Northwestern), and in that game, they gave over 150 yards on the ground. Well, with Boom Herron back, Ohio State will bring three really good backs into this game (Herron, Carlos Hyde and Jordan Hall), and even if Braxton Miller only has one good ankle (or none for that matter), I suspect it’ll be enough.
At least that’s what I’m telling myself.
MARYLAND (+8) over Clemson: Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ESPNU
The more people I talk to, the more amazed I am at how many have the same opinion on Clemson: They can’t be this good, they’re going to implode, that’s just what Clemson does.
Me? Well, I actually think they’re pretty good, and will end up with 10 regular season wins. At the same time, I do think that this game in particular is a bad spot for them. Going on the road, in a night game, with Tajh Boyd at less than 100 percent is bad news.
Then there’s the Randy Edsall effect. I watched the guy’s teams for a decade, and I know that just when you think he’s down for the count, just when you think his team has fully quit on him, Old Buzz Cut Randy pulls some magic out of his as---, umm, hat. UConn won four in a row after starting 4-5 in 2009, and five in a row last year, to close out the least impressive conference championship run in the history of college football.
Granted, I don’t think that Maryland makes a run at a conference title. But I just think this is the wrong spot for Clemson.
Florida (-2) over AUBURN: Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ESPN
As I mentioned in my Top 25 poll the other day, I can’t totally figure out why everyone is so down on Florida. Is it because they lost to the two best teams in the country? Because if so, I’m pretty sure that just about every team in college football would’ve looked just as bad as the Gators did the last few weeks. Truthfully, to anyone who thinks they have any idea how good Florida is or isn’t, you’re a straight liar. Either that, or you don’t know what you’re talking about.
But Auburn? We know plenty about them. We know they can’t pass the ball (106th in the country). We know they can’t stop the run (103rd in the country). And we know that they give up more yards per game on average (439.5) than any other team in the SEC. Just as easily as the Tigers have two losses, they should probably have at least two or three more. Utah State held a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter against them, Mississippi State outgained them by 150 yards, and South Carolina, well, if Jerry Garcia had been quarterbacking them instead of Stephen Garcia, the Gamecocks would’ve won.
Again, we really don’t know much about Florida, but we do know one very important thing about Auburn: They’re just not good.
I think Florida wins, easily.
Arizona State (+14 ½) over OREGON: Saturday, 10:15 p.m.
Hey, did you know Arizona State quarterback Brock Osweiler is 6’8? No, seriously, he is! I can’t believe no one’s mentioned that!
In all seriousness though, Arizona State is like a better version of Miami. Their play yo-yos with their competition, but the difference between them and the Hurricanes is that even when the Sun Devils play poorly, they’re still good enough to win. Of course when they play a big name opponent and they’re up for the challenge, they’re capable of beating just about anyone.
Arizona State is one of the few teams that can match the speed of Oregon, and if you’ll remember back to last year, played the Ducks deep into the fourth quarter in Tempe. The fact that LaMichael James isn’t playing doesn’t help matters much either.
Oregon wins this game, but the point spread is about five points too high.
I’ll say Oregon 41, Arizona State 34
Now, let’s get to the Fan’s Take:
Matt Hubacher (@GamingIncCEO) writes in on Oklahoma State-Texas:
All I keep hearing about is how Texas has won 13 straight after Oklahoma. Here's the thing: Colt McCoy ain't walking through that door, Vince Young ain't walking through that door, and Chris Simms ain't walking through that door (Major Applewhite, however, is technically walking through that door, but you get the point). Texas' offense just simply does not have the firepower to keep up with Oklahoma State's Air Raid that is averaging 430+ pass yards on the year. Although Oklahoma State's defense does not possess the difference makers of the Sooners D, Texas only managed to score 17 points last week, and seven of those came from a Fozzy Whittaker kickoff return.
The Longhorns are going to need significantly more offense to remain competitive in this one, and I just don't see things getting turned around in one week. Texas will limp into a bye week with back to back losses as I predict Oklahoma State will be able to score as many points as Mike Gundy's age (which, if you didn't know, is 44) and Texas simply won't be able to keep up.
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