| 28 October 2011
Alright, so I’m guessing you’re disappointed. Alabama and LSU aren’t playing, so really, you’re not even sure if it’s worth getting out of bed on Saturday morning. Maybe it'd just be easier to roll over, lay under the sheets and mope until next Saturday, right?
Still, I’m going to say something that’s going to surprise you: I think we could very well be in for the most important weekend of college football this season. Call me crazy, it’s ok. I’ve been called worse. (Even occasionally by my own parents.)
Here’s why I think this weekend is so interesting: up until last Saturday, this college football season was playing out to be more predictable than the ending to an episode of Two and a Half Men. You how every episode of that show was the same? (or at least how it used to be anyway) Charlie Sheen meets a girl, makes a few jokes at his self-deprecating brother, we laugh, Charlie gets the girl, drinks some scotch on the rocks, make a few more jokes, and we close credits.
Well, that was basically this college football season. The winner of Alabama-LSU was going to play the winner of Oklahoma-Oklahoma State, and we were going to crown a National Champion. Close credits. To everyone else, to teams like Stanford, Clemson, Wisconsin, it was fun, thanks for playing, see you next year. Close credits. For lack of a better term, with those teams, there was no light at the end of the tunnel.
Guess what? With Wisconsin and Oklahoma losing last week, all of a sudden, there is that light, and everyone can see their paths a bit more clearly. For Oklahoma State, win out, and you’re almost assuredly playing for a title. If you’re Stanford, win your games, then get on your knees and pray that something happens to Oklahoma State between now and the end of the season. Clemson? You need more help, but the path has even cleared for you. Win your games, and hope for Oklahoma State and Stanford lose somewhere along the way. It isn’t as easy for everyone, but they all know that if they take care of business, they at least have a chance. That’s something they didn’t have at this time last week.
Now the fun part. Which of those teams is going to run toward the light, embrace the challenge, and create their own fate? And who cowers under the covers? For Oklahoma State, Clemson and Stanford, it’s time to go into survival mode.
With that as a background, let’s get to this week’s picks. Ten games, against the spread, with the home team in CAPS.
Enjoy!
Michigan State (+4) over Nebraska: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ESPN
Over the summer I was asked which team I thought was in best position to take over atop the Big Ten standings, assuming that Ohio State was going to take a step back. At the time, I said Michigan, but the more I think about it, the more I think that the team might be Michigan State. The way they play, the way they run the ball, hit you on defense, wait for you to make a mistake, and win games by ugly scores like 10-7 and 17-14, is so, well, “Tressel-ian,” really. Which makes sense. Since Mark Dantonio did come up under Jim Tressel.
Just to prove my point, I went ahead and looked up what the Spartans record in close games was over the last few years, and the numbers back me up. Did you know since the start of last season, the Spartans are 9-0 in games that are decided by 14 points or less? Meaning that if you don’t get up on them early, don’t keep piling on the points, and don’t give them the kill shot when you get the chance (something Wisconsin was unable to do last weekend), well, they will beat you. Simply put, Michigan State is as comfortable in close games as Bo Pelini is a loose-fitting, wrinkled, non-hooded sweatshirt.
And as for this game in specific, well, I just don’t think Nebraska is talented enough to get a big lead or maintain it.
In other words, give me another Michigan State win, in another close game.
TEXAS A&M (-11 ½) over Missouri: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. FX
I still contend that Missouri is a pretty good team, despite their 3-4 record. Speaking of which, umm, have you seen their schedule? At Arizona State. At Oklahoma. At Kansas State. Oklahoma State at home. Man, there are teams in the NFL who’ve had easier paths so far. And it gets no easier when they go to Kyle Field Saturday.
I said it last week, and I’ll say it again: It’s a bad year to be average in the Big XII.
KANSAS STATE (+13 ½) over Oklahoma: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ABC
Speaking of being average in the Big XII…well, actually, neither of these teams is average. But as Oklahoma learned last week, if you play like you’re average, in this conference, in this given year, you will get beat.
And while we’re on the subject of Oklahoma, I’ve got to ask: What is the Sooners motivation for this game supposed to be exactly?
Seriously, let’s think about it. Their BCS hopes officially ended last week, they’re banged up, and now they’ve got to go on the road to play a team that has infinitely more to play for than they do. Not to mention, it’s not like this particular group (call them the “Landry Jones Generation”) has been known through the years for their mental toughness. Honestly, I’ve seen high school girls field hockey teams with more intestinal fortitude than these guys. (Sorry Oklahoma fans, it’s kinda true)
Just about the one thing Oklahoma has to play for is the opportunity to be a “spoiler” but even I think that’s a bit overrated. I might buy it if the opponent was Texas, Oklahoma State or even A&M. But Kansas State? With all due respect to what Bill Snyder has done this year, there isn’t a single guy on this Oklahoma roster who came to Norman to play “spoiler” in a game in Manhattan, Kansas. Sorry. If anything, this is a game which I’m pretty sure half this roster has had checked off as a “W” since August.
Point being, I think Oklahoma either wins this game by 40, or wins by a field goal (if they can avoid the loss all together), without much in between. I'll take the latter.
Georgia (-3) over Florida (in Jacksonville): Saturday, 3:30 p.m. CBS
I know, I know. Every year we say “this is the year that Georgia finally picks off Florida,” only to watch the Gators crush the Dawgs, and make us wonder, “wait, why did we like those guys again?” Honestly, it’s one of my favorite fall traditions, along with seeing the leaves change, drinking apple cider, and muting Mark May every time he comes on my TV. Good times.
There are a few reasons why I think this year is different though. One, I actually think Georgia believes they’re the better team this time around. That’s hasn’t always been the case. Sure they put on a nice, pretend “yes we think they’re better” front, kind of like when your girlfriend sees a picture of your ex, and says “oh, she’s not that pretty.” Ok, sweetie, whatever. We both know she’s better looking than you. And that was Georgia the last few years. They could say that they didn’t notice how pretty Florida was, but they knew. If that makes sense.
The other thing is this: Are we sure Will Muschamp can coach?
Now that’s not to say Muschamp has been bad, and that’s certainly not to say that I blame him for any of the losses on the schedule. There aren’t very many teams in the country that would’ve looked any better than the Gators did in those back-to-back losses to Alabama and LSU, and following that up with a trip to the Plains to play Auburn is just cruel and unusual punishment.
Still, I can’t help but think back to that Auburn game, think about late in the second half, when nothing seemed to be going right, and how I thought to myself, “My God does Will Muschamp looked overwhelmed.” While Gene Chizik paced the sidelines, with his calm, cool, “I got this,” Gene Chizik face, there was Muschamp, bright red, screaming, most times to no one in particular. Again, I like Muschamp. But on Saturday nights in the SEC, you can’t just yell away your problems. That might work when you on a Tuesday at practice. But not when you’re trying to win at Auburn.
Point being, I think we learn a lot about Muschamp this weekend. The talent differential between Florida and Georgia isn’t great. The Gators get John Brantley back (supposedly), and are coming off a bye. This is a game they can win.
But for a change its Georgia that comes in with the confidence and swagger. And for once, the Gators are the team I’m just not sure about.
PENN STATE (-5 ½) over Illinois: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ABC
If there was one song to describe the way I feel about Penn State right now, it’d be “I’m a Believer.”
You know the words: “Then I saw Joe Pa’s face…no I’m a believer. Not a trace, no doubt in my mind. I’m in loveeeeeee (with Matt McGloin’s red hair)… I’m a believer, I couldn’t leave her if I tried!!”
(by the way, is it any surprise I got a “D” in fifth grade choir?)
Anyway, I lied a bit. I’m not really a believer in Penn State, at least not against any team that’s half decent. But in a game like this, where all they’ve got to do is play great defense, and tell Matt McGloin “Please for the love of God, just don’t do anything stupid,” I’ll take them.
It won’t be pretty, and you will hate yourself for watching. But Penn State will win by a Penn State-y kind of score like 13-3, 21-10 or something like that.
Baylor (+13 ½) over OKLAHOMA STATE: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ABC
And nowwww this is where things get interesting. Saturday may be more interesting for the Pokes than anyone else in the country actually.
Why’s that? Well, it’s just that of all the undefeated teams entering last weekend, Oklahoma State might’ve had the least pressure of anyone. Yes they were undefeated, but not only were they not the biggest story in their own conference, they weren’t even the biggest story in their own state. Nooooobody was paying attention to them. At least not beyond, “Well, I hope they stay undefeated for the Oklahoma game.”
Well guess what? Oklahoma lost, and now, after playing on the road for two straight weeks, they return home, and return to real tangible expectations. Not to mention that they’re doing it against a damn dangerous team that’s coming off a bye, and puts up points on everyone. You have heard of Robert Griffin and Kendall Wright, correct? You know, the seventh ranked pass attack in the country?
I’m going to take Oklahoma State. But I’m thinking this one is closer than most expect.
TENNESSEE (+4) over South Carolina: Saturday, 7:15 p.m. ESPN2
So entering this game, all anyone is talking about is Tennessee quarterback Justin Worley, who is making his first career start. Except, wait a second, isn’t Connor Shaw making his umm, fourth career start? When exactly did he become Joe Montana in the mid-1980’s? Because I’ve watched that guy, and other than a win against Kentucky, Shaw hasn’t looked all that spectacular.
As a matter of fact, I’m just going to come out and make this my Saturday upset special. Tennessee has too much pride and just enough talent that eventually they’re going to come out on top against one of these highly ranked teams. Why can’t it be this week?
Give me the Vols by a field goal.
Wisconsin (-7) over OHIO STATE: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ESPN
You know how I was mentioning earlier in this preview that I think Oklahoma shows up with nothing to play for Saturday? Yeh, I think Wisconsin does the same…only the exact opposite. The Badgers are a prideful team, Russell Wilson is a damn prideful player, and 
after the way the game ended last week, you’ve got think they come out pretty fired up. Not to mention that the Badgers also know that if they win out, they’ll almost certainly get another shot at Michigan State in the Big Ten title game.
As for Ohio State, well, umm… Jared Sullinger sure has lost a lot of weight, huh?
GEORGIA TECH (+4) over Clemson: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ABC
And now we get to Part II of “As the Undefeated Teams Turn,” and I’ve got to ask, does anyone else have a strange feeling about this game? It’s not that I don’t like Clemson, but still, you’ve got to admit that this is a weird spot for the Tigers. On the road and at night is one thing, but playing Georgia Tech is quite another. Especially since it seems like every time we give up on the Jackets, they have one of those nights where they come out, execute their offense to perfection and put up 45 points on some unsuspecting team.
Like Oklahoma State before them, I’m not picking Clemson to lose, per se.
But they better be careful.
Stanford (-7) over USC: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ABC
And finally, we’ve got Stanford, who, I’m actually pretty confident has nothing to worry about Saturday.
Understand it’s not that I don’t like the Trojans or appreciate what they did last Saturday at Notre Dame. Believe me, I do. But it’s also no secret that the way to beat USC is to run the ball at them, keep running the ball at them, and then, just when you’re ready to try something different, run at them again some more. And I’m pretty sure that given their druthers, Notre Dame would’ve done exactly that last week. The problem was that they fell down by two touchdowns early and never got the chance to. In a related story, USC won going away.
Well for Stanford, I can’t imagine it’ll be nearly as big a problem. You know, since they average over 219 yards rushing per game, and went for 446 last week against Washington.
This one might be close for a half, but Stanford wins…going away.
And now, this week’s “Fan’s Take”:
Matt Hubacher (@GamingIncCEO) writes in on Baylor-Oklahoma State:
It's so tempting to take Baylor and the two touchdowns. Baylor's offense is explosive and RGIII is an exciting a player as there is in the country. Texas showed that even an average offense can move the ball on Oklahoma State, so Baylor will at least keep it close, right? Not so much.
The problem with Baylor is their defensive effort resembles that of a sorority sister pillow fight. Baylor is allowing over 32 points per game and its rush defense is among the nation's worst. Oklahoma State has recently found balance with RBs Joseph Randle and Jeremy Smith, and Mike Gundy's Air Raid doesn't need much of an introduction at this point (387 pass ypg). What really should concern Baylor backers is the Bears -1 turnover margin (vs. Okie Lite's +15), coupled with the fact that Baylor laid a complete and total egg in its first true road game (55-28 at The 12th Man, Kyle Field).
I've said for a while that Baylor is the type of team that beats the teams they should beat and loses to the teams they should lose to. The opening game upset victory against TCU doesn't look quite as impressive as it did six weeks ago, and Oklahoma State now controls its destiny for the BCS National Championship Game. All in all, it should be a happy day over in Boone's backyard.
Ross Collings (@Rossenator22) writes in on Ole Miss-Auburn:
In one corner, we have the disappointment of the SEC in Ole Miss, who under Houston Nutt have achieved very little, in the other corner we have Auburn, the only three loss team ranked in the BCS Top 25. Auburn needs to bounce back after their beat down by the Bayou Bengals, they have the chance to continue their path onto 7-8 wins just like most Auburn fans thought, but for Ole Miss, after playing Arkansas well last week, need to put it all together and pull of a stunning win over a rebuilding Auburn, taking a win over the defending National Champions might just save the Nuttmeister for another season.
Though unlikely, remember that Houston Nutt always has one game every season he has no business winning.
Jeremy Hicks (@JMattHicks) writes in on:
Missouri at Texas A&M: Hi reader, remember me? I'm the die-hard Aggie fan that was completely done with Aggie football this year after the Oklahoma State and Arkansas debacles. Well, beating hated "rival" Texas Tech and then pounding just-as-hated Baylor has brought me back into the fold...but with a much more grounded handled on this Fightin' Texas Aggie Football that I love so dearly. Anyways, here's my brief take on Missouri at A&M: Ags win 48-17, exacting revenge for the embarrassing loss Mizzou handed us at Kyle Field last season. Christine Michael and Cyrus Gray combined for 200+ yards rushing again, Ryan Tannehill goes for 280 yards and 3 touchdowns, and Jeff Fuller gets his first 100 yard, 2 TD game of the season.
Baylor at Oklahoma State: First and foremost, I'm not one to go against Oklahoma State very often. For the past 4 years, all they've done is prove every critic wrong in dramatic fashion. But let me also say this: I am a believer in Robert Griffin III. You see, this sets up perfectly for Baylor. a) all of the pressure is on Oklahoma State and b) Robert Griffin III has GOT to have a chip on his shoulder with all of the Heisman voters writing him off (and Brandon Weeden in) because his teams not winning (thanks to that porous Baylor defense). If he's competitive like myself, he's wanting to go out there and absolutely shock the nation JUST to prove a point. If Baylor can force two turnovers while playing a turnover-free game themselves, and RGIII continues to play like the best college football player in the country, the Baylor Bears will win in relatively convincing fashion. If not, Oklahoma State will beat the brakes off of Baylor much like my Aggies did. Heart? 38-31 Baylor. Head? 55-24 Oklahoma State.
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