| 10 August 2010
Yesterday, I revealed the first part of my "Way Too Early," College Football Preseason Top 25. We laughed, we cried, and luckily, remained injury free through all 3,000 words. To read the preview click here.Today it's time for the second part, where I reveal 15 more teams, and end with the revelation of my preseason No. 1 (I'm sure you'll all be real shocked who I take at No. 1. Kidding.). Two quick notes before we start:
1. This is a very, VERY long article, even by my standards. You probably won't read it all in one sitting, and that's ok. Take your time, soak it in, swish it around in your mouth, like a glass of fine wine. Come back two or three times if you need to. And if you don't want to do that, just print it out and read it on your commute home, in bed while ignoring your wife, or wherever else you do your reading (I don't want to know where that might be). Just make sure to block off a fair amount of time.
2. After finishing yesterday's countdown at No. 15 Miami, we are starting... back at No. 15. Why, you ask? Well because I'm an idiot and actually ranked 26 teams instead of 25. I guess that hypothetically makes Notre Dame No. 26 in this poll, not No. 25, but I'm keeping them there anyway. Whatever. Like I said, I'm an idiot. Clearly, math was never my strong suit.
Anyway, let's get back to the list...
No. 15 Nebraska: So after losing the Big XII Championship Game by one point, and roasting Arizona like a Christmas ham in the Holiday Bowl, people are tripping over their own feet to hop on the Nebraska bandwagon. Next stop, a BCS bowl game. And that's cute. It really is.
Except here's the thing: I watched the Cornhuskers last year. And two games at the end of the season can't hide the fact that they weren't all that good in the first 12. On offense, they were really nothing short of a train wreck.
With that, I understand that guys (especially quarterbacks) need time to mature. Offseason's can do wonders. But I just can't buy Nebraska being any better this year, mainly because last year's starting quarterback Zach Lee...Hasn't even won the starting job yet!!!
It'd be one thing if we were hearing quotes out of camp from Bo Pelini, like "Zach really gets it now," and "Thankfully, I no longer have to consider paying the mob to make him 'disappear.'" But we're not hearing those quotes. Quite the opposite actually, Lee is holding onto the position for dear life. This, from a guy who has been the starter the last two years. I'm no football expert, but I don't think that's a good sign coming into the season.
I still think Nebraska is the best team in the Big XII North, but the idea that they're a Top 10 team (like I've seen published some places) is laughable. Settle on a quarterback first, then we'll talk.
No. 14 Arkansas: On the opposite end of the quarterback derby is Arkansas and Ryan Mallett.
Coming into 2010, there isn't a single passing stat that I don't think the guy can accomplish. Could he throw for 500 yards in a game? I wouldn't bet against. Six touchdowns in a quarter? If he gets the opportunity. Decapitate one of his receivers? If Vegas gave me a line, I'd bet it. Last year I created a rule that was roughly called, "If Ryan Mallett's playing, I'm watching." That won't change in 2010.
Of course, this is where you say to me, "But Aaron, this defense is terrible. The only thing tougher to watch every Saturday is Mark May on College Football Final." And it'd be hard for me to disagree with you.
Here's my defense: Yes they were bad. Incredibly bad. Mark May arguing with Lou Holtz kinda bad. But with seven starters returning, they have to better this year by default. Don't they?
Plus remember, Arkansas lost two HUGE games- at Florida and at LSU- by a combined six points. Even with just an incremental improvement by the defense, and an assumed incremental improvement on the offense (which we all know is coming, by the way), that's two more wins right there.
And that's not even getting into Arkansas biggest defensive problem last year: The big play.
Because I have no social life, I decided to look up two games that I remember Arkansas' tackling being especially bad last year (leading to big plays for the opposing offense), and here's what I came up with: Against Georgia, they allowed touchdowns of 80 yards, 50 yards and 42 yards, and the following week gave up touchdowns of 52 yards, 50 yards and 80 yards against Alabama. If they could have made just one or two more plays at the line of scrimmage in those games, they're right in both. All of a sudden, we're looking at a potential 10 win team in 2010.
Finally, one last thought on Arkansas, because I think it's an important one. One of the best parts of my job is corresponding with fans from all over the country and talking to them about their teams. I love it. And when it comes to Arkansas, I will tell you this: Fans of other schools in the SEC are terrified of them. Absolutely terrified. Even Alabama's fans want nothing to do with them, and Nick Saban has owned Bobby Petrino the last two years, to the point that he should probably be paying the guy's mortage. And still, Alabama fans are scared.
That's got to count for something, right?
13. North Carolina: Last year I started out super-high on North Carolina, and they ended up falling flat on their face. So why am I so high on them this year? Well, obviously because I'm an idiot.
Honestly, I really don't know what to make of them in 2010 any better than I did last year. Just like in 2009, their defense (with or without Marvin Austin), is going to to steal a win or two, even if their offense doesn't give them anything. Make no mistake, this is an NFL defense in a college uniform.
As for that offense (Like Arkansas' defense), they've got to be improved, if only because they can't get much worse. Their 16-3 loss to Virginia last year actually set the game of football back 20 years. Yes quarterback T.J. Yates was lousy, but it isn't like there isn't talent around him. North Carolina has two solid backs (Shaun Draughn and Ryan Houston) and a handful of good receivers. And quite frankly, I don't expect Yates to have the starting quarterback job for very long anyway. All indications are that Bryn Renner is coming on strong.
I guess what I'm trying to say is that a crappy qb + good weapons + a great defense still equals a lot of wins.
12. Georgia Tech: There are four reasons that I like Georgia Tech to potentially repeat as ACC Champions. Here they are:
A. You know how I enjoy making fun of coaches? Like get a weird, sick, thrill out of it? Well you'll never hear me cracking wise about Georgia Tech coach Paul Johnson. The guy is a genius. Watching him go up against some of his competition in the ACC would be like watching Jessica Simpson play chess against a grand master. After awhile you almost just feel bad.
B. Everyone is getting all worked up about running back Jonathan Dwyer and wide receiver DeMariyus Thomas leaving early for the NFL. Except that in this system, those guys are replaceable. Quarterback Josh Nesbitt is not. As long as he can stay healthy (and that's a big if with all the hits he takes), this offense is going to be just fine.
C. Everyone is getting all worked up about this defense too. Except, they brought in Al Groh as the new defensive coordinator.
Now, was Groh terrible as a head coach at Virginia? Of course. The only coach I made more bad jokes about last year was Ron Zook. But can he coach defense? Yes. Michael Felder of InTheBleachers.net did an excellent job of breaking it down in our podcast last week. Listen here.
D. It's impossible to prepare for Georgia Tech's offense in one week. You just can't.
But it's that last point where I'm a little concerned. Because as Michael pointed out, they have to play both Virginia Tech and North Carolina coming off bye weeks.
Do I think they'll lose both? Probably not. But that fact alone scared me away from putting them in my Top 10.
11. Virginia Tech: Speaking of Virginia Tech, we've got our fourth ACC team in the Top 15. Good times.
Like everyone else Virginia Tech has their questions: How good is this defense? How developed is Tyrod Taylor's passing? Will anyone emerge is a big-time receiving threat?
Here's why I like them to emerge from the ACC quagmire though: They know who they are. Seemingly a simple statement, but look around the rest of the league. No one else can say that. North Carolina has no idea where their points are coming from. Jacory Harris still hasn't put it all together in Miami. Georgia Tech is one Josh Nesbitt injury from potentially falling back to the middle of the pack.
Virginia Tech doesn't have those problems. They're a team that's going to pound the ball right at you, and keep pounding it at you, until the last play of the fourth quarter. They'll hit you with Taylor on a bootleg, but now a senior, he knows better than to try to make too many plays with his legs. And even though their defense doesn't return a lot of starters, that doesn't mean guys haven't played. Again, Virginia Tech knows who they are.
And I think because of it, they can beat everyone on their schedule. Except Boise. More on that coming...
(Yes my friends, that is what we in the business call a "tease." Although, to be fair, I'm not really in the business. But you get the point.)
10. Texas: When it comes to Texas, I could sit here and bore you with all kinds of fancy stats and figures, and maybe even throw in a pie chart or two for good measure. But instead, I'll be quick. You and I both have better things to do. Well, at least you do anyway.
What it comes down to for Texas is this: The defense is going to be really good (Full of sweaty, Will Muschamp chest bumps). The skill position guys are going to be really good. Malcolm Williams, D.J. Monroe and James Kirkendoll are all burners. But, is Garrett Gilbert ready? Because if not, nothing else really matters.
As I've discussed with several people, including in my Big XII Preview Podcast with Allen Kenney of BlatantHomerism.com, at the end of the day, it doesn't matter who you are, who your coach is, or what the name on the front of the jersey says, at some point, your quarterback is going to have to win you a game or two. Even
Alabama- who had a Heisman Trophy winning running back- doesn't beat Auburn last year unless Greg McElroy steps up.So that's the conundrum for Mack Brown and Texas. All the other pieces are there. A 10-win season for the 500th straight year is still likely. I just see one or two games where Gilbert is thrown into the fire, and is just...not...quite...ready.
He will be soon enough. Just not in 2009.
9. Iowa: Early last season I compared Iowa to one of those really good Italian restaurants that only you and your friends know about, where you know the chef personally, and can show up at 7:00 p.m. on a Friday and still get a table. Then the local newspaper does a review of the place, and all of a sudden it's Friday night, you've been standing in the rain for 45 minutes, still haven't gotten a table, and end up eating cold burgers at Arby's. Not fun.
That was my experience with Iowa football in 2009. I watched them in relative secrecy from my couch those first few weeks, but by mid-season, they'd blown up like the Italian restaurant. Next thing I know, they're America's darling, and Mark May is talking about Ricky Stanzi like they've been best friends since grade school. Sorry Mark, but I found these guys first. Stay away! They're mine!
Anyway, I thought about putting Iowa higher in my poll, but two things held me back.
The first being, that as good as Stanzi was last year (Back off Mark!), the dirty little secret was that he was wildly inconsistent (17 touchdowns and 15 interceptions). Quite frankly, I'm still not sure how he rallied Iowa against Indiana last year. And that's my concern in 2010. Stanzi put his hand on the stove a lot in 2009 and never got burned. I just don't think he can be that lucky again this year.
The other issue is that Brian Bulaga isn't around any more to protect Stanzi's blind side. That dude was a hoss. He put defensive ends on their backs. And I don't know how they replace him at left tackle.
This is still a 10 win team, but not a Big 10 champion.
(Random side note: Is it just me, or does Iowa have the coolest sounding pair of wide receivers in college football? Derrell Johnson-Kulianos and Marvin McNutt, are you kidding me? When I first heard their names, I thought they were the guitar players in the Dave Matthews Band or something.
All I'm saying is, that I feel like if my name was Marvin McNutt I'd be getting a lot of tail right now. Way more than I currently am anyway. That's all.
8. USC: This is going to be a bit of a negative, grumpy preview. So if you're looking for funny, happy AT, you might want to skip over this USC section.
Here are a few thoughts on the Trojans:
First off, because of their NCAA sanctions, USC wasn't listed in the USA Today Coaches Poll. I know that's to avoid conflict at the end of the season with the BCS Poll, but at the same time, it's just stupid. They're still taking the field every Saturday, and should be ranked if they merit it. And they do. Plus, doesn't taking them out of the rankings, negatively affect other team's rankings in the BCS computers? Again, just stupid. Here in the AaronTorres-Sports.com poll, they're ranked.
Secondly, you know how people always talk about how the media influences public opinion? Example No. 2,147 is Lane Kiffin.
Now, is the guy a prick? Maybe, I've never met him. But, the idea that he isn't a good football coach is just stupid. I'm sorry, but it is.
Yes, he didn't do all that well with the Raiders, but come on. Even if Vince Lombardi was coaching them, with Bill Walsh as his offensive coordinator and Bill Belichick as his defensive coordinator, they wouldn't have gone .500. If going 5-15 in Oakland makes Kiffin a bad coach, then well, there isn't a single good coach in all of football.
Also, anyone who says that Kiffin didn't prove anything at Tennessee is an idiot too.
Look, I take great pride in my job, and part of that is actually watching the teams, coaches and players I talk about on this website. I watched almost every down that Tennessee played last year, and they absolutely, unequivocally got better. From week-to-week, month-to-month and over the course of the season. Jonathan Crompton went from a guy who couldn't complete a pass to an NFL Draft pick. The defense was one of the best in the country. And as a program, Tennessee went from 5-7 in 2008 before Kiffin got there, to 7-6, and a bowl game in Kiffin's only season in Knoxville. Meaning that yes, he did in fact improve the team. My question for anyone who says that Kiffin can't coach is this: What exactly was he supposed to do at Tennessee last year? Go 12-0? Come on.
Thirdly (And I'm sorry for being so grumpy, but I've got to get this out of my system. The rest of the preview will be much happier. Promise!), anyone who thinks that USC isn't a 10 win football team this year (especially with 13 games on the schedule), doesn't know what they're talking about. Period.
Honestly, go ahead and look back at last year. Everything that could have gone wrong at USC did. They lost nine starters on defense. They lost both coordinators to Washington. They had a fluky streak of injuries that had to be seen to be believed. They started a true freshman at quarterback. And you know what? They still won nine games! Nine! How many programs would kill to have a "down," year like that?
When the sanctions really hit USC in a year or two, this team may take a step back. But not in 2010. They're still the best team in the Pac-10.
(One more grumpy note on USC, because I don't know where else to put it. I finally saw the Real Sports interview with Pete Carroll on the USC sanctions over the weekend, and let me tell ya, it was just about the most one-sided, misreported and presumptuous piece of journalistic garbage I've ever seen. I'm half surprised Andrea Kremer didn't try to blame the BP oil spill and global warming on Carroll too.
Please understand that this isn't Aaron taking a cheap shot at a female reporter, because truthfully, I like Kremer. But her story was pathetic. She took public assumption, did no research, no fact-checking and showed no understanding of how a major Division I athletic department works. Again, she blamed Carroll for everything. But where was the blame on USC AD Mike Garrett? Where was the blame on the compliance office? Where was the blame on Bush himself and his family? No where. It's not Pete Carroll's job to know what kind of car Bush is driving or where his parents live, yet apparently Kremer thought so.
I hate to toot my own horn, but if you want to see some fair reporting of the story, click here.
Now, back to some positive, happy, football previewing.)
(Be sure to follow Aaron on Twitter @Aaron_Torres and Facebook.com/AaronTorresSports)
7. Wisconsin: I already know what you're thinking: "Aaron, come on, Wisconsin? Really? Those goofy white guys?" And believe me, last year I was with you. No one made more jokes about their pale complexion than this guy. Nobody.
But as my bookie can attest, I repeatedly underestimated them, and they repeatedly came through with flying colors. They aren't the prettiest team to watch, but they just win games and cover spreads.
(Onto another side note: Speaking of gambling, if you asked me for one long shot Heisman Trophy candidate I would bet on, it'd be John Clay at +1400. Remember when I called Brian Bulaga a hoss? Well this guy is a HOSS! He rushed for 1,517 yards last year, averaged 6.8 yards per carry, and did it in an offense where everyone knew he was getting the ball on first and second down. This year he'll be running behind one of the most experienced offensive lines in the sport, and won't be splitting carries with anybody. If he can stay healthy this is a great investment.
Gambling related side note No. 2: Whether you gamble or not is your business, and you should only do so responsbily. With that said, if you are interested in wagering a little bit on this college football season, sign up with AaronTorres-Sports.com's official gambling partner BetUS.com.
Again, I'm not saying that you should sign up if you're not comfortable, but if you are, go ahead and throw down a few bucks, and make sure in the referral part of the application, you mention www.aarontorres-sports.com. Anyone who signs up for the football season and uses me as a referral, gets a free t-shirt and some other cool stuff (And for the record, I wouldn't recommend a product if I didn't use it myself, and promise it's 100 percent safe. Not to mention the best gambling experience online.
Ok, I'll stop shilling, but did need to get in a shout out for my sponsor.)
6. Florida: Another great part about this job is that I get to do a lot of cool stuff that I wouldn't get the opportunity to do without this site. An example of that came in May, when I covered the post-spring practice, SEC coaches teleconference.
Coming into the meeting, I was definitely skeptical of the Gators. You know, since they lost everybody but the towel boy and long snapper from last year's team.
Then Steve Addazio (filling in for Urban Meyer) got on the phone. He started, not by talking about replacements for Tim Tebow, Joe Haden or Brandon Spikes, but by praising his offensive line, and saying that it very well could be the best in the country. And it was after that point when it dawned on me, this Florida team is actually going to be pretty good.
No, they're not perfect, but are still as talented top to bottom as anyone, thanks to about 97 straight top two recruiting classes. Not to mention that the SEC East is down, they get South Carolina and LSU at home, Urban Meyer owns Georgia, and the only game that they probably won't be favored in is at Alabama. And what's the worst that can happen there? They're not expected to win anyway. Plus, this offensive line is going to keep new quarterback John Brantley upright, and give him time to make plays. If he can get the ball to Chris Rainey, Jeff Demps and others in space, this team will score points.
Really, the more I really think about, the more I really like this Florida team. And it's all because Steve Addazio started a press conference by talking about the offensive line. Who knew?
5. Oklahoma: It's funny, because I feel the exactly opposite about Oklahoma that I do about Florida. I'm really not all that crazy about their talent or depth.
Why do I have them ranked so high then? First off, other than USC, nobody had more brutal injuries last year than Oklahoma. Nobody. Forget Sam Bradford, but imagine if they'd just had Jermaine Gresham and a few of their injured guys on defense for all of last year. All of a sudden we're looking at a 10 win team in 2009, and I'm feeling way different about them headed into 2010.
Also, look at their schedule. They might trip up against Florida State or Cincinnati out of conference, but I just don't know if anyone in the Big XII can beat them. They don't play Nebraska. Texas has the previously mentioned quarterback concerns. Who does that leave exactly? Texas A&M? Wake me up when Mike Sherman finds his pulse. Or a defensive coordinator.
So congratulations to Oklahoma. You're the first team ever to be a preseason top five team by default. Enjoy another Big XII championship.
4. TCU: I've been seeing TCU ranked anywhere from No. 6 to No. 8 in the preseason and really, I don't understand how that's possible. Looking at the stats (and I really hate stats to describe the dominance of a team, but it's the only way to fully appreciate this team), you could make a pretty strong case for them at No. 2 or No. 3. Let's check them out.
Last year, TCU ranked in the top six in college football (Remember, this was out of 120 teams) in the following categories: Scoring offense, total offense, rushing offense, scoring defense, total defense, rushing defense and passing defense. And oh, by the way, they return 16 starters off a 12-1 team. In other words, they're going to score a whole lot of points, and not give up very many on the other side of the ball.
Now let me ask you, how is this the No. 6, 7 or 8 ranked team in the country?
3. Ohio State: In my preview last year (And please don't look through the archives, the writing was terrible. Please, I don't ask for much), I compared the Ohio State Buckeyes to an episode of Everybody Loves Raymond. It starts with a few laughs (Ohio State beating up on Toledo), then Ray does something a little controversial in the middle to piss Deborah off (Ohio State losing a game they maybe shouldn't), and the episode ends with more laughs (A Big 10 title). After awhile there's no point in even watching, because you know exactly what's going to happen.Entering 2010, I don't expect things to be much different. The defense is going to be really good, because, well, it always is. I don't think I'm breaking new ground there. Quite honestly, I'm pretty sure this group has given up more than 17 points in a game since sometime in the mid 1990's.
My one concern though, is if we're making a little bit too big of a deal out of Terrelle Pryor's Rose Bowl performance. Because if my memory serves me correctly, I'm pretty sure that like two months before Pryor sliced and diced Oregon in Pasadena, half the Ohio State fan base wanted him moved to wide receiver. Maybe I just dreamt that. But I don't think I did.
Now I know that Pryor was better over the second half of last year, I'm not arguing that. But other than the Rose Bowl, was he great? Not from what I remember. What I remember is a good quarterback, who was put in a position to not make mistakes, which is exactly what he did. The Rose Bowl performance was phenomenal, but then again, with a month between games, shouldn't we take all bowl performances- good and bad- with a grain of salt?
Here's how I see Ohio State's season playing out: Pryor will be much improved from beginning to end, more second half of 2009 than first half. Still, like every Jim Tressel coached team, the Buckeyes are still going to rely on the running game, defense and Pryor not to do anything stupid. It will work for most of the year, but at some point (maybe at Iowa, maybe at Wisconsin), they'll need Pryor to come through and he won't. Part will be his fault, and part will be that I just don't see any of his receivers as the A.J. Green/Julio Jones types that can just go out and make plays when needed. And Ohio State will lose one game.
Obviously, an 11-1 finish wouldn't be bad by any measurement, and almost most any other program would kill to start the year as the No. 3 team in the country. But I just don't think this Ohio State team will be playing for a National Championship in January. That's all.
2. Boise State: Like last year, what this season comes down to for Boise is their first game. You all know that. Win it, and they're going to be comfortable favorites in every game after. Lose, and for all intents and purposes, the season is over.
Since we all know pretty much everything there is to know about Boise (mainly that return 21 of 22 starters), here are three reasons why I like them to beat Virginia Tech on Labor Day.
A. Quarterback Kellen Moore just doesn't make mistakes. Period. Just to verify, I decided to check out his touchdown to interception ratio in 2009. It was 39 to 3. Well then.
B. Like every other big game in program history (Fiesta Bowl against Oklahoma, Fiesta Bowl against TCU, opener against Oregon last year), this game is coming off an extended break, just about nine months after the Broncos last game to be exact. That's nine months for Boise State to figure out how to stop you, and nine months for them to come up with a whole bunch of stuff you're not ready for. If this game were played in Week 3 or Week 5 I might like Virginia Tech. Not in an opener.
C. Anyone who still thinks of Boise as a gimmicky, goofy team didn't watch them play last year. That might have been who they were in 2006. Not anymore.
Yes they might break out a trick play here or there, but in their most recent big games, they've been a tough, physical football team and controlled the line of scrimmage.
Take last year's opener with Oregon for example. It was supposed to be Chip Kelly's spread offense that carved up Boise's smallish front line. That dominated the trenches. That ran all over an overmatched defense. Well, Boise ended up outrushing them 164 yards to 31. And if it wasn't for a couple bone-headed plays in the red zone, they would have won by a much wider margin than 19-8. Go ahead and watch that game again, it easily could have been 31-8. Boise also doubled TCU's rushing total in their Fiesta Bowl matchup.
While they might not double Virginia Tech up on Labor Day, they are going to get the win. These ain't your fathers Boise State Broncos.
1. Alabama: For anyone who has made it this far, first of all, thanks for reading. I'm sure by now you want to stick a ball point pen in your eye. I appreciate you not do that, and finishing out this article to the end.
Seriously though, there's probably nothing I can tell you about Alabama that you don't already know. They return a Heisman Trophy winning running back. Their quarterback is undefeated. Their defense is young, but talented. And their coach is a success driven maniac, who handles losing about as well as I handle my mornings without coffee.
With that, even the most optimistic Alabama fan will admit that going undefeated won't be easy this year. Not with a schedule that has Arkansas, LSU, Tennessee and South Carolina on the road, Florida and Auburn at home, and a potential SEC Championship Game. Just based on the odds, you'd think a loss would be mixed in there somewhere, and that doesn't even factor in the mental stress that comes with entering the season No. 1. We saw it wear down Florida last year, and you've got to think it'll weigh on the Crimson Tide all year.
Still though, this is the best team on paper in college football and the defending National Champion. They're still on top of the mountain, and until someone knocks them off, they belong at No. 1.
We'll find out if they'll stay there, starting September 2.
Thanks for reading. Now go get a cold drink. You deserve it!!
(Love the article? Hate it? Disagree with some of Aaron's picks? Let him know by commenting below or e-mailing him at This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it .
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