| 06 October 2011
No time for fun and games, as I give you my Saturday selections from a hotel room here in Virginia.
As always, let me know what I did right, what I did wrong and why I’m an idiot, in the comments section below, or by e-mailing me at This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it
Oklahoma (-10) over Texas: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ABC
As most of you know, I’ve now adopted Texas as one of my 2011 college football crushes. It didn’t happen overnight, and didn’t happen by accident. But there’s just something about this team I can’t get enough of. Watching the Longhorns is like watching a baby take its first steps; they’re just young enough, just dumb enough and just naïve enough that you can’t help but pull for them. They actually remind me a lot of my beloved 2011 UConn Huskies basketball team the more I think about it.
The problem is of course, that they haven’t played anyone with close to the talent level that they’ll see from Oklahoma this weekend. I mean seriously, look at the Longhorns schedule. Rice and UCLA are absolutely awful. BYU’s offense is so impotent I half expect to see Jake Heaps in a Cialis commercial one of these days. And Iowa State? Well, I actually like them more than most people do. Paul Rhodes is especially dreamy. But that still doesn’t mean that the Cyclones are going to be anywhere near the top of the Big XII standings at the end of the year.
With all due respect to Texas, it’s been a fun ride so far. But while it’s great to be young, dumb and naïve…it’s a lot better to not-so-young, not-so-dumb and more talented.
I expect this one to be close for about two and half quarters, but eventually the Sooners will pull away. Texas just isn’t ready to tango with the big boys yet.
Missouri (-3) over KANSAS STATE: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ESPN/ABC
This might ruffle some feathers, but I’m going to say it anyway: I firmly believe that this year, the Big XII is deeper with quality teams than any conference in college football. Yes, that includes the SEC. I already mentioned the merits of Texas and Oklahoma above, and looking around the rest of the conference, things don’t get any easier. Oklahoma State is a legitimate top 6-7 team. Baylor can score points on anyone. And Texas A&M has the talent of a Top 20. Even if they’ve got the heart of the cowardly lion.
Then there are these two teams, and this game in specific. And ultimately, doesn’t the fact that Kansas State is ranked, at home, with two pretty good wins (at Miami and Baylor), and they’re still considered underdogs, kind of make my point about this conference? Missouri might be 2-2 right now, but you I actually believe they’re probably one of the 25 best teams in the country. They probably should’ve beaten Arizona State in Arizona, and a week later gave Oklahoma all they could handle in Norman. In any other conference, I firmly believe Missouri would be a nine win team. In this conference, in this particular year though, they’ll be lucky to get to seven.
Saturday will be one of them.
Moving on…
Iowa (+4) at PENN STATE: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ESPN/ABC
Wait, was Daryll Clark named the starting quarterback for this game and I missed it?
No? So that means that Penn State still has the same Rob Bolden-Matt McGloin Cluster-F at quarterback they’ve had all season? And they’re favored by four?
What am I missing?
Miami (+7) over VIRGINIA TECH: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ESPN/ABC
I know what I see with my own two eyes, and I know this: Somewhere underneath all the dank, dark, crapiness that we’ve seen from Miami this year, there actually is a half decent football team. I don’t care that they lost to Kansas State at home a few weekends ago. I don’t care that Bethune-Cookman outgained them last Saturday. And I don’t care that Al Golden seems just about ready to call in a favor to Nevin Shapiro and ask him to make Jacory Harris “disappear” (if you catch my drift). I don’t care about any of it. I’m convinced Miami is actually a good football team, and no one can tell me any different.
As for Virginia Tech, well, I don’t know what to think. I didn’t really expect all that much from them entering this year, and last Saturday, kinda, sorta proved my point (although in the Hokies defense Clemson is actually a really good football team). This team is still really young on defense, and with all due respect, Logan Thomas has a long way to go (although in his defense, the expectations were never fair to begin with). Quite frankly, beyond David Wilson, I don’t trust anyone on this team.
I’ve got to go with my gut here, and I’ve got to say this: I think Miami is a better football team than Virginia Tech point blank. If they care at all about not making me look bad (which they should!) they keep things close here.
LSU (-13 ½) over Florida: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. CBS
Honestly, I’d love to give you some incredibly insightful words of wisdom on this game, but they’re just not coming to me. LSU is the more talented and experienced team, is at home, and I’m guessing they’re probably just about ready to show America how good they are. You think they didn’t watch ‘Bama beat the Gators by almost 40 points last Saturday and use that as motivation at practice this week?
Florida might’ve been able to keep things close with John Brantley. As things are though, LSU will roll.
Michigan (-6) over NORTHWESTERN: Saturday, 7:00 p.m. Big Ten Network
Before everyone goes slobbering all over Brady Hoke, I’ve got to get something off my chest: Look, I know Michigan is 5-0 right now, but, umm, didn’t Michigan start 5-0 the last two years? And didn’t they finish the season at 5-7 and 7-6 respectively? Ok, that’s what I thought. Glad we’re on the same page.
Now granted, this is a different Michigan team. I get that. But I don’t think it’s as different of a team as people think. After all, they still haven’t played a game away from the Big House yet, Denard Robinson has regressed as a passer (55 percent this year compared to 62.5 percent a year ago), and for all the talk about the defense being “improved,” umm didn’t they give up over 500 yards of offense to Notre Dame? Ok, that’s what I thought. Glad we’re on the same page.
So by now you can probably tell that I don’t like Michigan all that much this season. But in this game? Give me the Wolverines.
The simple truth is that I’ve seen Northwestern enough now to know that for all the experience that they have, they’re just not a very good fast or skilled football team. Tough? Sure. Smart? Absolutely. But just not very good.
Actually, the more I think about it, the more I think the proper analogy to Northwestern’s football team is this: You know how Duke goes through every college basketball season, puts up a lot of wins, then gets blown out by 30 in the NCAA Tournament because they just don’t match up athletically? That’s basically this Northwestern-Michigan game in a nutshell. They’re good. But they just don’t have the athletes to match up.
Michigan will get their comeuppance, and soon. Just not Saturday.
TENNESSEE (-2) over Georgia: Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ESPN2
I hate to toot my own horn…
Ok, I’ve actually gotta stop myself right there. Because I love to toot my own horn. But that’s not the point. The point is…Wait, what was I saying again?
Oh yeh, I’ve got toot my own horn here, after writing the paragraph below in last weekend’s college football weekend preview:
I know I’m not the first one to say it, but I’m going to throw it out there anyway: Being a Georgia fan (or even just being a dopey fool like me who picks them in columns like this) really is like being in an abusive relationship. Just when you think they’ve turned the corner, just when you think everything is ok, just when you think you’re ready to move on and live happily ever after…they end up stumbling in the door at 2:30 in the morning with lipstick on their collar and beer on their breath (Or choking as a touchdown favorite. You pick the analogy which fits best).
Well I’ve got to ask, if there was ever a time that was applicable, it had to be last weekend right?
After all, Georgia played just about the most complete game I’ve seen them play in years in the win over Mississippi State. Really, they were fantastic. The Dawgs were lights out on defense, Isaiah Crowell and Malcolm Mitchell continue to emerge as true playmakers on offense, and for the first time in a long time, Georgia actually played with a swagger to match their talent. The Dawgs are a damn good football team, and last Saturday was the first time I felt like they actually believed it.
But, to quote myself, “just when you think they’ve turned the corner, just when you think everything is ok, just when you think you’re ready to move on and live happily ever after….” Saturday night happened. And on Saturday night, one of Georgia’s best defensive players, Cornelius Washington, got popped for a DUI, and is suspended for this game. As much as things change, they stay the same in Athens, huh?
And above all, that’s why I’ve got to take Tennessee here. It’s not so much that they’re the more talented team (they’re not) or even because they’re even at home (although it helps), just that I’m not sure how Georgia will handle adversity. For three years now, it’s been one step forward, two steps back with this program, and if the Mississippi State game was one of those steps forward, well, the Washington arrest was definitely a step back.
Does Georgia have the talent to win this game? Unquestionably.
But will their heads be in the right place? History tells me the answer is probably no.
TEXAS TECH (+8) over Texas A&M: Saturday, 7:00 p.m. FX
If the last 18 months have proven anything, it's that someone needs to go ahead and hire Mike Leach. Like right now (I’m looking at you Ole Miss!). After all, has any college football program gone from “perennial Top 25,” to “completely irrelevant,” faster than the Red Raiders since Leach left Lubbock? Not one I can think of.
As a matter of fact, let’s play a game. Go ahead and name me one, single, player on Texas Tech’s roster without looking it up. Do it. I dare you.
You can’t, can you? And you know why? Because unless you’re the parent, friend or baby-momma of a player on this team, there’s no reason to watch Texas Tech football! They’re less compelling than a flat diet coke without any ice in it. What is interesting about this football team? Again, nothing I can think of.
But with all that said, I’m still going to take Tech and the points here. Mainly because if Texas A&M wasn’t jacked up to play 60 minutes of football against Oklahoma State and Arkansas the last two weeks, what kind of inspiration with they have to go on the road and get a W this week? None that I can see.
This game will be a field goal one way or the other. Just don’t expect me to watch.
ARKANSAS (-10) over Auburn: Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ESPN
A couple of thoughts on this one.
1. Auburn fans, as much as I love you all (and honestly, you all have been amazing to me), it is absolutely impossible to take anything out of last weekend’s win at South Carolina. Yes, I know it was on the road, and I know it was a gutty win, but my God. South Carolina is a bigger mess than Hank Williams’ personal life right now.
2. I think that the Arkansas team we saw in the second half last weekend is much more of the “real” Razorbacks team than the one we saw in the first half. If we’ve learned anything through the years, it’s that when you play Alabama, you’re usually so beat up by the end, that it takes a full half the following week to get over it. That’s exactly what happened last Saturday. After Arkansas stopped feeling sorry for themselves, they were much, much better.
3. I’m going to pull out an analogy that I created last year, and say that this is one of those games where “Mean Girls Corollary,” kicks into effect for Bobby Petrino.
What do I mean by the “Mean Girls Corollary?” Well, it’s just that Petrino actually reminds me of a character from the movie “Mean Girls.” When he gets the opportunity to pick on someone weaker than he is (think Ole Miss or Vandy), he absolutely does it. Nobody loves running up scores like Bobby Petrino does. But the second someone stands up to him? He backs down like the bully that he is.
As for this game in particular? Well, I'm thinking that after two weeks of tough games, Petrino is ready to pick on someone. You're the unlucky victim.
NEBRASKA (-11) over Ohio State: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ABC
You think ABC regrets deciding a few months ago to make this their primetime game?
After what I saw from Ohio State last week, this line could be 30 and I wouldn’t touch them.
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