| 03 August 2011
Quite frankly, I don’t know if there’s anything harder in sports than trying to put together a preseason Top 25 in college football. There are just too many factors to consider. Who’s returning? Who graduated? What’s the schedule look like? Is my team coached by Ron Zook or not? Again, there are a million factors.
This year is no exception. Looking up and down the board, every team has an issue. Some lost key players, others are going through coaching changes and a bunch are switching conferences. Honestly, I don’t even know if there are 25 teams worthy of the Top 25. But I’m going to try anyway, as I reveal the first half of my preseason Top 25 today.
Understand that this isn’t an exact science, and these rankings don’t necessarily indicate how I think a team will finish the season. Just how good they are today. For example, anyone who reads my articles or listens to my podcasts, knows I like Georgia coming into this year. Based on how I think certain players will improve, and how I expect their schedule to play to out, I believe they will win the SEC East. At the same time, there is no tangible way that you can say that today, on August 3, 2011, they’re better than South Carolina. You can’t. Therefore, South Carolina will be ranked ahead of them. Same with some other teams from different conferences.
Either way, with camps opening up, and Joe Schad again, begrudgingly becoming a part of my everyday routine, it’s time to talk some football. Here is Part I of my Top 25, teams 25-16. Part II will run on Friday, as I reveal my Top 15 teams.
Again, this isn’t an exact science, but it is a fun jumping off point.
25. USC:
Ultimately to me, the No. 25 spot came down to the two perceived favorites in the Pac-12 South, USC and Arizona State (And please, don’t try to sell me on Utah as a favorite. They lost some really good personnel, and the schedule has been majorly upgraded. Remember, not only did Utah get blown out three times last year, but they also won four more games by five points or less. I’ll believe the Utes are better than a 7-5 team when I see).
Starting with USC, I can understand the strong argument against them. Mainly that their defense wasn’t very good last year, and overall, the Trojans have less depth than the urine drenched kiddie pool at your local park. One injury at virtually any position, and they could be in big trouble.
At the same time, one thing they do have going for them is Matt Barkley. Say what you want about the Trojans, but besides Andrew Luck, you could make the case that Barkley is as good as any quarterback in college football. And he should only be better, with Kyle Prater, a 6’5 former high school All-American returning from injury at wide receiver. Remember also that two of USC’s five losses last year came with Barkley injured last year. Add him into the mix, and the Trojans win at least one of those games (likely a 20-16 home loss to Notre Dame).
As for ASU, they’re getting a lot of buzz as the trendy pick du-jour in the South, mainly based on the fact that they’ll have a really good defense (hellllllllllllo Vontaze Burfict), and that they’re about as experienced as any team in college football. They return something absurd like 31 seniors to the team.
Then again, don’t you just love when pundits throw around statements, “They have 31 seniors on their team,” as an arbitrary reason why a team will be good? Who cares if you have 31 seniors if they all suck? Wouldn’t you rather have 15 seniors, five juniors and 11 sophomores that can all ball? For example, I feel like everyone used the same logic with Maryland last year, and where did all those seniors get them? A respectable nine wins, yes. But also a blowout loss to a much more talented Florida State team with an ACC Atlantic title on the line. Give me talent over experience any day.
Ultimately, I actually think Arizona State will be pretty good. To their credit, they lost a ton of close games last year, and closed out strong with a win over Arizona.
But in the end, give me the team with Matt Barkley at quarterback.
24. Northwestern:
Now here’s a trendy pick du-jour I can get behind!
Look, like a lot of teams battling for these final few spots in the Top 25, Northwestern has plenty of questions. Mainly, how does their defense bounce back from giving up about 11 bajillion points in the last few games of the season, seven bajillion of them to Wisconsin alone? Honestly, I’m not sure, especially since half their defense is likely still having nightmares about that Wisconsin game to this day.
What I do know about Northwestern though, is that for all the bad jokes about Dan Persa and “the dumbbells,” this week (if you don’t know what I’m talking about click here), he very well might be the most underrated player in college football. That 73.5 completion percentage the threw for last year, just don’t lie.
Plus, you can’t help but like the Wildcats schedule. There’s no Ohio State or Wisconsin. Michigan State, Michigan and Penn State are all at home. And the only real tough challenges on the road are at Nebraska, which is almost assuredly loss, and at Iowa, which most definitely isn’t. Did you know Northwestern has won five of six against Iowa, including three straight at Kinnick? Bet you didn’t. Well, unless you’re an Iowa fan.
Ask even the most pessimistic Northwestern fan, and 9-3 not only seems achievable, but expected.
23. Texas:
Listen, I watched Texas just as much as you did last year, so I know that I’m asking you to take a leap of faith with me here.
At the same time, this is what we do know about the Longhorns:
1. Prior to last year, Mack Brown had won at least nine games every year he’d been at Texas, and 10 or more for nine straight years. If you go back to his days at North Carolina, he’d won at least nine in 13 straight years, and 10 or more in 11 of 13 seasons (Including several with only 11 regular season games). For you non-math majors, I’m sorry about all those numbers. I guess what I was just trying to say is that umm, this Mack Brown guy can coach.
2. As bad as their record was last year, the Longhorns still got after it defensively, and finished a surprising No. 7 in the country in total defense. They return key players on every level, guys like Alex Okafor, Kheeston Randall and Blake Giddeon that could play for pretty much any team in the country. Sophomores Jackson Jeffcoat and Jordan Hicks were also big-time recruits that could’ve signed just about anywhere. In other words, the talent is still there.
3. Yes Texas lost Will Muschamp at defensive coordinator, but to Texas’ credit, they did about as well replacing him as could’ve been expected, with Manny Diaz. And by any tangible measurement, you’ve got to think that Bryan Harsin is a step up at offensive coordinator from Greg Davis. No?
4. Malcolm Brown is the first legit running back recruit they’ve signed in years. Do I know if he’ll be as good as advertised? Nope. But at least he gives Texas hope. That’s something they didn’t have last year.
Now obviously it’s no secret that the ultimate success or failure of this team will come from the play of the quarterback. Garrett Gilbert wasn’t just bad last year he was awful. Actually, he was something worse than awful, an adjective that I’m not even sure in his vocabulary.
Which brings us to the question, will he be better? To some degree, you’d think that by default he’d have to be, right? But to Texas’ credit, Gilbert hasn’t been handed the keys to anything. If he gives them the best chance to win, he’ll play. If Case McCoy or someone else beats him out in fall camp, then they’ll be the starter Week 1 against Rice.
In the end, I just think there is too much talent both on the field and in the coaches office for this team not to be significantly improved this year. They will make a bowl game, and worst case scenario I believe, is eight wins.
But whether they can get back to that 10-win plateau is up to the quarterback. Whoever that quarterback is.
22. TCU:
Quite frankly, there are a lot of reasons to like TCU this year. Their defense returns quite a bit, namely star linebacker/ruckus-raiser Tank Carder, who might be the scariest guy in college football. Honestly, I’m getting nervous just typing his name in this Microsoft Word document. On offense, there is plenty of returning talent too. Ed Wesley is the best running back you’ve probably never heard of.
Buuuuut with all that said, I’m not nearly as excited for TCU as most.
The most important reason is the loss of Andy Dalton, he with a head of bright red hair, and 60 touchdown passes in the last two years. Poor Casey Pachall has impossible shoes to fill, made more impossibler (yes I just made up that word), since he’s thrown a grand total 
of nine career passes. Which might not be bad, except for this: TCU’s four toughest games are all on the road. Two of them are in the first two weeks at Baylor, and at altitude against Air Force, giving Pachall no time to get acclimated to anything. And it won’t get any easier when the Horned Frogs go to San Diego State and Boise State later in the season. Poor Pachall isn’t just getting thrown into the fire, he’s getting thrown into an inferno.
With all due respect to what Gary Patterson has done at TCU the last decade or so, this team isn’t going undefeated for the third straight regular season. Getting to 10-2 will probably be an achievement in its own right.
21. Miami (FL):
As I’ve mentioned many times, I pride myself on the fact that I watch just as much college football as anyone. Meaning that when I throw something out there like “Miami is definitively a Top 25 team, take it to the bank,” when no one else is saying the same, I usually have the facts to back it up. Unlike certain reporters, writers and pundits (cough…Mark May…cough), I don’t say things just for the sake of saying them.
So why do I like Miami so much? Well, for all the talk about Jacory Harris’ misery last year, what gets lost is that Miami was actually good on defense. Like really, really good, with a ton of talent returning this year. Sean Spence, Vaughn Telemaque and Marcus Forston could play for anyone. Olivier (Newton-John) Vernon and Ray-Ray Armstrong probably could too.
The other thing is this: I firmly believe that the new coaching staff will use Harris (or Stephen Morris if he starts at quarterback), better than the old staff did. Basically, the way I see it, last year’s offensive coordinator Mark Whipple saw Harris the same way a 50-year-old guy in the midst of a mid-life crisis sees a brand new sports car. Just like the 50-year-old revs up the car and hits 90 on the highway (even though he knows better), Whipple couldn’t help but do the same, essentially by letting Harris chuck the ball all over the field. Too often it resulted in ugly interceptions.
Which brings us to Al Golden. I’m not saying I know a ton about the guy, but he seems like an old-school, “Win with defense, the running game and field position,” kind of guy. Well, Miami has the defense and running game already. Now they just have to keep Harris under control. Which I fully expect them to do.
Trust me when I say that Miami will be better than you think.
I wish I could say the same about…
20. Stanford:
I already made my case for Stanford’s struggles on the other college football website I’m contributing to, Crystal Ball Run. Feel free to read those thoughts here.
Also, let me add an addendum to that, because I’ve got one more important thought. And that’s the following: How many times have we seen a good team lose a great head coach, and take a MAJOR step back the following year?
Think about it. It happened last year when Brian Kelly left Cincinnati. Louisville went from 11-2 and an Orange Bowl win to 6-6 the year after Bobby Petrino left. West Virginia was worse after Rich Rodriguez left town. And maybe the best example was when Steve Spurrier split from Florida, and the Gators tanked with Ron Zook. Poor Rex Grossman’s career was never the same.
And really, that’s the thing. When you’ve got a great coach, a truly elite one, it isn’t so much about the X’s and O’s, as it is about the attitude he brings every day. Football is all about emotion, and when your coach knows that he’s the baddest dude in the room, it rubs off on the players too. Well that’s what Jim Harbaugh brought to the table every single day. He knew he was the better than the coach he was going up against, and after a while, his team started to have the same attitude.
Ultimately, that’s my biggest concern with Stanford. It’s not that I don’t think David Shaw will be a good coach, because I suspect he will be. But he just…isn’t…Jim Harbaugh. Understand that Shaw may keep the same playbook. He may keep the same schemes. But it’ll be impossible for him to replicate Harbaugh’s attitude.
Stanford will obviously win games. Andrew Luck is too good to let them fall too far.
But if you think they’ll be the same team they were last year, you’re mistaken.
19. Michigan State:
Honestly, I feel the same way about Michigan State. They’ll be good. But you’ll see Jordan Jefferson and John Brantley finish one and two in the Heisman race before you see State win 11 games again this year. Let me tell you why.
Look, anyone who knows me, knows I’m not crazy about using stats to define teams, but I think they're important with Michigan State. Did you know the Spartans ranked no better than 36th and no worse than 60th in the following categories last year: Total offense, total defense, scoring offense, scoring defense, rushing offense, passing offense, rush defense and passing defense. In other words, they’re the classic, ‘good at everything, great at nothing,’ type team.
Which is fine, if you’re playing the dregs of the conference, or playing your best opponents at home. The problem is this year’s schedule is significantly tougher than the last.
Last year the Spartans didn’t play Ohio State. This year they go to Columbus (albeit without the ‘Tat Four,’ who will still be suspended). They add Nebraska to the schedule. Two teams they barely held on to beat last year, Notre Dame (the fake field goal win) and Northwestern (a 21-point, fourth quarter comeback) are both on the road. And they also travel to Iowa, the only team to beat them last year.
And that’s where my theory on being “Good at everything, great at nothing,” comes in. As far as I’m concerned, every great team has something to lean on when they’re in crisis. Alabama knows their defense can force a three and out when they really need them to (Like last year against Arkansas). Oklahoma has their passing game. South Carolina can pound Marcus Lattimore. Hell, even LSU has Les Miles drawing up wacky plays in the sand (Plays which by the way, helped them beat Florida and Alabama last year). What does Michigan State have? Where do they go, and who do they turn to when they need a play??
….
My thoughts exactly.
18. Mississippi State:
The more I think about it, the more I’m trying to figure out if there’s a single team that’s getting more random, bandwagon love than Mississippi State. And why not? Throw in Dan Mullen, add a dash of Vic Ballard, and a whole helping of that beat down of Michigan last winter, and it all makes sense, right?
Well, I’m not so sure. There are a few reasons why I’m a bit less bullish on Mississippi State then most.
As my buddy Rick (a huge Ole Miss fan) likes to point out, for all the success Mullen has had, do you know how many games he’s won in the SEC West over the last two years? Two. One per year, both to Ole Miss (Much to the chagrin of Rick of course). In other words, in the last two years, Mississippi State is a combined 0-8 against Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn and LSU. Some of those losses were close (last year to Arkansas, two years ago to LSU). But they were still losses none the less.
The other thing I’ve got to ask is, have any of you seen Chris Relf play quarterback? The guy makes Jordan Jefferson look like Joe Montana by comparison. He’s a hell of an athlete yes, but also throws a wobbly ball, and isn’t all that accurate. I guess what I’m saying is, I don’t trust Chris Relf. Like at all.
In the end, I think Mississippi State will be good. They’re going to find wins. They may even upset LSU or South Carolina at home.
I just don’t see them being much better than last year’s 9-4.
As for…
17. Notre Dame:
I think they could be one of the surprise teams in the country.
Granted, I understand that it’s easy to look at Notre Dame, look at recent history and say, “AT, you so craaaaaaazee. Notre Dame is ALWAYS overrated” I get it. I do.
I also know that:
Brian Kelly is an elite coach, and most elite coaches make “the jump,” in year two. Gene Chizik and Les Miles (whether you think they’re elite or not), won National Championships in year two. So did Urban Meyer, Bob Stoops and Jim Tressel. Pete Carroll took USC from 6-6 to 11-2 in his second year. Nick Saban took Alabama from 7-6 to 12-2. The numbers don’t lie, and Notre Dame brings plenty back on both sides of the ball (especially defense) to see vast improvement. The fact that Michael Floyd was reinstated today, only helps.
Then there’s the schedule.
Look, I’m not saying it’s going to be easy. At the same time, where are the bona-fide, guaranteed, “no way in hell they win that game,” game losses? Stanford, Pitt and Michigan are the three toughest road games, and are all breaking in new head coaches. So is Maryland. USC, Michigan State and South Florida are all tough, but all at home. Despite their struggles against Navy, they’re at home too. Same with Air Force, who’ll be tough. Yes, there’s enough week in and week out competition where Notre Dame won’t go undefeated. No one is denying that.
But factor in the coach, talent and overall schedule? Doesn’t 9-3 or 10-2 sound just about right?
16. Nebraska:
I feel like you can look at the Cornhuskers one of two ways.
The first “glass is half full,” theory is that if Nebraska’s defense was able to shut down the high-powered passing attacks of the Big XII, then they should have no problem stopping the somewhat simpler schemes found in the Big Ten. Because honestly, doesn’t it seem like just every team in the conference uses the exact same, five-play, all-running-between-the-tackles playbook?
The glass is half empty is as follows: Yes Nebraska scored a lot of points last year, but they’re also going up against a much better defensive brand of football this year. Will they be able to score as easily?
And that’s my hold-up on Nebraska. They were good on offense yes, but they also lost their two best playmakers in Roy Helu and Niles Paul. Beyond that, can Taylor Martinez stay healthy? He missed a lot of time in the second half of the year last year. And in 2011, Nebraska doesn’t have Cody Green as a safety net backing him up.
Then there’s the schedule….woah the schedule. Incredibly, of Nebraska’s eight conference games in the new Big Ten, seven are against teams that went to bowl games last year. There is no Indiana or Purdue to beat up on, with Wisconsin and Ohio State (with the Tat Five) to open the schedule, and Michigan State, Northwestern, Penn State, Michigan and Iowa to close it. My gooooodness.
Nebraska will be good.
But the Big Ten schedule makers did them absolutely no favors….
Please come back Friday, where I’ll reveal my Top 15 teams!
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