| 20 November 2009
It seems like a lifetime ago, but I started out this month quoting an old saying, “They Remember November.” Looking at this and next week’s college football schedule however, this November might be one to forget.
Maybe.
Because while the national media has called this season a dud, I still have hope. Sure, there haven’t been all-time great teams, or transcendent “Bush Push,” type games that we’ll be telling our grandchildren about. But with a few weeks left, there’s still plenty to look forward to, and plenty to look back on.
In no particular order, here are some of the things I’ll remember from this season: How good TCU became, and how quickly they made me look like an idiot for doubting them; how much fun it was to watch Tennessee grow as a football team, and how much fun it will be watching Lane Kiffin get catty like a teenage girl with Urban Meyer, Mark Richt and Nick Saban going forward; how tough and resilient Oklahoma continued to be, even though their players went down faster than the guy’s in Forrest Gump’s platoon; how Alabama showed up every week no matter who the opponent was; how Oregon played maybe the worst game of any contender to start the year (at Boise State), and maybe the best (against USC) as well; how the UConn community rallied around the death of Jasper Howard; how Texas and Colt McCoy just kept chugging along and racking up double digit victories; how the unbelievable development in Jimmy Clausen’s game was overshadowed by so many other things at Notre Dame; and finally how much the sport is changing.
That last one might be most important. Because while everyone’s complaining about the lack of marquee matchups in these last few weeks, I promise you they’re still there. Sure Michigan-Ohio State, Florida-Florida State and USC-UCLA won’t be as exciting as years past. I’ll give you that.
But at the same time, when have Stanford and Cal been more evenly matched than this year? How about Oregon and Oregon State potentially deciding a Pac-10 championship in their “Civil War,” game? And I’m sorry that they may not be the most recognizable programs, but when Cincinnati and Pittsburgh play in two weeks, the game will most likely feature two top 10 teams with a Big East title on the line.
So while the names may not be familiar, just enjoy the ride. It’s going to be a fun couple of weeks.
And with that, let’s get to the games. As always, the point spreads are provided to us by our friends at BetUS.com, with home teams in CAPS.
Ohio State (-12) over MICHIGAN: 12:00 p.m.
An interesting matchup between a team not built to cover big spreads (Ohio State) and an opponent who forgot how to tackle sometime about six weeks ago. It’s like a preview of the Alabama-Florida SEC Championship game…Only the exact opposite.
(Random side note: Everyone is talking about Michigan having Rich Rodriguez’s head on a platter, except for one thing: his offense is fine. They’re the top scoring team in the Big 10.
Here’s the real problem. Michigan’s defense has given up 30 or more points in six of seven Big 10 games this year. In other words, it’s just another year in the life of Michigan defensive coordinator Greg Robinson.
For those of you not familiar with Robinson’s handiwork, let’s go ahead and take a quick peek at his resume over the past half decade.
In 2004, he was the defensive coordinator at the University of Texas. Yes they had a good year and finished 11-1. But they also won a National Championship the year after he left in 2005. Coincidence? Probably not, since the Longhorns had one of the single most dominant college football players of the last 20 years on their sidelines in Vince Young. I’ll give old man Robinson a pass on that one.
But after his stint in Austin, that’s when things started to get a little dicey. And by dicey of course I’m talking about his 10-39, four year stint at Syracuse, during which time Robinson did what was previously thought to be the impossible, mainly making Syracuse a more depressing place than it already is. And as someone who’s spent some time there, I assure you that is no small feat.
This of course, brings us back to this year, where he’s turned Michigan’s defense into the laughingstock of the Big 10. Needless to say, it hasn’t quite been Robinson’s decade.
So on a serious note, I’m going to make a plea to everyone out there.
Can we please stop hiring this guy? Please? After watching him for four years at Syracuse, I’m not sure he’s competent enough to set up an e-mail account, let alone run a Division I defense (can you tell I’m a little passionate about this?). And honestly I’m not so sure he won’t be a greeter at some Atlantic City casino within the next few years.
So please end the Greg Robinson reign of terror. Please!)
Mississippi State (+11 ½) over ARKANSAS: 12:21 p.m.
See this is what I love about the SEC. This is a game featuring two totally middle of the pack teams that I should have no interest in, yet both having compelling coaches and star power, and I’m more interested in this one than most of the other games on the national schedule.
Here’s why I like Mississippi State to keep it close: Look at their schedule. They’ve faced every single offense you can possibly go against over the course of the season: High-powered passing attacks (Houston is ranked No. 1 in college football in passing offense), a triple-option running game (Georgia Tech is the No. 2 rushing defense in college football), Florida’s spread option, a pro-style running game with some Wildcat mixed in (LSU) and even a power running game featuring a potential Heisman Trophy winner (Alabama).
So while I’m terrified to bet against Ryan Mallett and Arkansas’ offense (The Surgeon General has asked me to put in the following warning: Anyone who is pregnant, suffering from chest pain or who has had an erection lasting more than four hours should seek immediate medical treatment before wagering on this game), the Bulldogs aren’t going to play scared. And after looking at that schedule, why should they?
TEXAS TECH (+6 ½) over Oklahoma: 12:30 p.m.
College football is a funny game. Last year this was a primetime game, featuring two top five teams playing for a Big XII South title. This year, these two are a combined 12-8, and this game is on Fox Sports 13, sandwiched between Chet Barclay’s Big Game Hunting Show, and a rerun of Roseanne. My how quickly the mighty fall.
Anyway, I was all set just to pick Oklahoma and move on, until I took a look at their box score from last week against Texas A&M.
Did you know the Sooners scored three early touchdowns off A&M turnovers? Yep that’s right, one ended up being a fumble return for a touchdown, the other two setting up scoring drives of four plays and 22 yards, and the other five plays and 25 yards. In other words A&M basically handed Oklahoma 21 points (By the way that is a perfect example of the kind of hard-hitting statistical analysis that I’ve sacrificed my social life, to bring to you, my fans.)
Plus, if you’ve followed Oklahoma , they really haven’t played well in back-to-back games, basically all year (unless you include Idaho State and Tulsa…which I don’t).
All signs are pointing to me towards Tech in this one.
NOTRE DAME (-6) over UConn: 2:30 p.m.
Believe it or not, I’ve probably seen these two teams more than any others this year (Why you ask? Well I live in Connecticut, and Notre Dame is on TV every week. So like I psycho ex-girlfriend, I just can’t get away from these two even if I wanted to.)
My quick take? Even against Cincinnati, UConn hasn’t faced anything close to a passing attack like this. I don’t see any way that Notre Dame scores less than 30 points, or Jimmy Clausen throws for under 300 yards. Meaning of course that Charlie Weis gets to save face for another week, before his unofficial funeral at Stanford in seven days.
MICHIGAN STATE (+3) over Penn State: 3:30 p.m.
What’s that I smell? That’s right, it’s the: “If It’s Too Good To Be True, It Probably Is, Sucker Bet of the Week!!!”
OLE MISS (-4) over LSU: 3:30 p.m.
You know, a few days back I felt pretty good about this one being my “Semi-upset, that’s not really an upset,” bet of the week. Then a scary thing happened, and everyone from Kirk Herbstreit, to the guy who smells like pee at the bus station made Ole Miss their pick too. For awhile I didn’t know what to do.
After some deliberation, I stuck with my gut for two reasons:
The first is the obvious one, and the reason everyone is hot on Ole Miss. For LSU, Charles Scott is out with a shoulder injury and quarterback Jordan Jefferson is no where near 100 percent. Fine, makes sense.
However, this is the real reason I’m taking Ole Miss: Houston Nutt owns Les Miles. That’s not my opinion it’s fact. The Ole Miss coach has beaten the LSU coach the last two years at two different schools, almost costing LSU the National Championship in 2007. Miles to his credit wins a lot of games, but hasn’t figured out the Wildcat, Wild Reb or whatever Nutt is going to throw at him on Saturday.
Every coach has their kryptonite, and unfortunately Miles is facing his this weekend. Ole Miss 31, LSU 21
Cal (+7) over STANFORD: 7:30 p.m.
Alright, so don’t make fun of me, but while I sit on my couch for 12 hours every single Saturday watching endless amounts of football, I always keep a notebook. Dorky I know.
I usually don’t write down anything too important in there, just things I notice, funny quotes, goofy haircuts, you know stuff like that.
Anyway, the other day I was looking through my notebook from the season, and I noticed that on two separate occasions, I unknowingly praised Cal defensive tackle Tyson Alualu. After doing a little research on the kid, I realized that I’m not loosing my mind and that’s he’s actually pretty good: Mel Kiper has him as a second round pick in next spring’s draft.
And with Stanford having faced a smaller, quicker d-line against Oregon two weeks ago, and USC’s M.A.S.H. unit last weekend, I think they might not be ready for how physical Alualu and Cal’s defense is going to be. Plus, I’m feeling like there might be a little residual karma at Stanford, for trying to run things up on USC last weekend. You don’t dare cross Pete Carroll that way, you just don’t.
So what am I trying to say in all this? I’m thinking it’s going to be a big day for Tyson Alualu. Bet you've never heard that before.
Kansas State (+16 ½) over NEBRASKA: 7:45 p.m.
Three thoughts and three thoughts only on this game:
1. I can’t imagine anyone who’s not related to a player on either team being able to name five guys in this game.
2. Sure the winner gets Texas in the Big XII Championship, but in the end, aren’t we all losers in that scenario?
3. Bet on this game, and you’re basically admitting that you’ll bet on just about anything.
TEXAS (-27 ½) over Kansas: 8:00 p.m.
Has there ever been a college football saga that people cared less about than what’s going on at Kansas right now? Hmm, “Fat coach with low self-esteem berates players.” Never heard that one before. This one honestly rates right at about a 2.0 on the “Media Stories I Couldn’t Care Less About Scale,” somewhere between Heidi and Spencer, and whoever John Mayer is currently dating (Ok, you caught me, that was my second John Mayer reference of the week, but what do you want from me? It’s been a long season!)
Getting back to the game, here’s what we know: It’s going to be Senior Day, and things are going to get a little misty-eyed in Austin. Especially when Colt McCoy and Jordan Shipley embrace in the man-hug to end all man-hugs.
I figure this one will stay close for about a quarter, before the Longhorns pull away and turn this one into a laugher. 37-6? 47-10?
Pick your number, just bring the tissues. And know that the man-hug is probably going to be the best part.
Oregon (-6) over Arizona: 8:00 p.m.
I’ve got to be honest, of every big-time team this year, I’ve probably seen Arizona the least. Of what I have seen, here are my impressions: Despite what the statistics say, you can run on them (cough…Shane Vereen…cough) and that Nick Foles might have the same hair dresser as my sister. That’s really all I’ve got.
But before I made my final decision, I decided to talk to my “Pac-10 consultant,” my buddy Travis who lives in the Pacific Northwest. You may remember him from my Week 9 preview, when he predicted Oregon to beat USC comfortably.
So what’s his take on this game? Pretty much the same as mine. Oregon lights up the scoreboard, and wins this one going away. Oregon 38, Arizona 17.
He also wanted to be the first to call a Mike Stoops/LaGarrette Blount post-game fistfight. You heard it here first folks.
Last Week: 6-4
Season: 58-52 (Yikes!)
Agree with Aaron? Disagree? Let your voice be heard by commenting below or e-mailing him at This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it .
(On a seperate note, I want to continue to thank BetUS.com for being an official partner of AaronTorres-Sports.com and providing us our point spreads.)
