| 04 November 2011
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: One of the best parts about this job is having the opportunity to talk to people all over the country (and in some cases the world) about sports. This week has been no exception, and what I’ve found most interesting is that all the e-mails, DM’s, and Facebook messages have virtually read the same. In essence, every LSU and Alabama fan I’ve talked to has said something to the effect of:
I can’t, I can’t sleep, I can’t think. The pressure and hype of this game is getting to me. I neeeeeeed to get to Saturday already!!!!!!
And I’ve got to ask, if fans feel that way what must be going through the player’s heads?
Now in defense of LSU and Alabama fans it’s hard to blame anyone for being excited about Saturday’s game. It’s a big one. Ok, I take that back, it’s a huge one. Bigger than any regular season game, conference championship or even bowl game since I started covering the sport three years ago. Even the Alabama-Florida SEC title game a few years ago didn’t have coverage like this.
In that season, Alabama fans were just trying to survive the week-to-week grind of it all, which in large part took away the joy of the run to Atlanta. They had to get past the “I don’t know if we’re good enough,” residual backlash from the Mike Shula era, get past a shaky offense, and survive LSU, Tennessee and Auburn before they could even think about the SEC Championship Game. And even when they got there, they had some guy named Tebow waiting for them. Talking with ‘Bama fans that whole fall, it felt like just getting to Atlanta was a huge sigh of relief, and that they really didn’t feel the enormity of that game until a day or two before kickoff.
But this year? Well, it’s pretty safe to say this is different. We’ve basically known since the first few weekends of the season that these were the two best teams in college football, and not much has changed since. Once LSU beat West Virginia and Alabama got by Arkansas, it was clear that these two were on a collision course, and over the course of the last month clearly nothing has changed.
Which brings us to Saturday. We all know what’s on the line, and incredibly, I’m not even totally talking about football. Yes, the game is a component, but there are just so many others as well. It’s Saban vs. his old school, and Les trying to once and for all distance himself from the past, and put the final stamp on the LSU program as “his.” It’s about each team clearing their own path to an SEC Championship and beyond.
And really, I think there’s one analogy that sums it up better than anything. The other day I was watching a documentary about the third Muhammad Ali-Joe Frazier fight, and in it, there was an incredible quote which said (and I’m paraphrasing):
“By the time of the third fight, those two weren’t fighting for the heavyweight championship of the world. They were fighting for the championship of each other.”
Couldn’t have said it better myself, and couldn’t think of one thing to sum up this game. LSU and Alabama aren’t trying to win a football game, they’re trying to win the championship of each other.
And with it, here are some of the biggest keys to the game:
Defense, defense, defense:
Seriously, what’d you think I was going to start with? The punting game?
But while I do want to talk about these defenses, I’ll go ahead and skip all the statistical hyperbole. After all, how many different ways can a writer tell you “these are the two best defenses in college football?” So instead of discussing whether these defenses are good or not, I’m more interested in talking about how they play. Because how they play is the most fascinating sub-plot of this game; each dominates, but in entirely different ways.
For Alabama, their defense really has taken on the personality of their head coach Nick Saban. While everyone talks about how physical they are, what I can’t help but notice is that they’re the most meticulously prepared, fundamentally sound group I can ever remember watching. Nobody is ever out of position. Nobody ever misses a tackle or assignment. With Saban, success is always in the details, and that rubs off with the way Alabama’s defense gets after it, not just by being the most physically prepared team, but the most mentally prepared one too.
As for LSU, well they’re well-coached and meticulously prepared too, but watching the Tigers, they seem to get by much more on athleticism and instinct than straight fundamentals. Tyrann Mathieu is the free-wheeling, ball-hawking defensive back that every coach wants to have (but rarely lets loose) and the defensive line sheds blocks against quality SEC offensive lines like they’re going against practice dummies (if you don’t believe me, just as Clint Moseley how he feels two weeks after getting mashed into the turf by LSU’s front seven. My guess is that he’s still pretty sore.)
Above all, I think my buddy Michael Felder described these defenses best when he said, “There’s two paths to success: Soul-crushing physical punishment vs. demoralizing relentless punishment.”
Couldn’t agree more.
Moving over to the other side of the ball, let’s go to the most obvious storyline and ask…
Is A.J. McCarron Ready?:
Let’s go ahead and get real here. The only person who knows if A.J. McCarron is ready for Saturday night is A.J. McCarron. But while I can’t answer the question of “is he ready,” what I can tell you is that after doing an extensive column for him over at Crystal Ball Run earlier this week, I can promise you that he’s infinitely more prepared than people give him credit for.
First, there are the stats. On the season McCarron is completing over 67 percent of his passes, and has thrown just one interception in the last seven games, after tossing two in Alabama’s opener. McCarron has done it against good defenses, with three wins against teams ranked in the Top 30 nationally, including two on the road (at Florida and Penn State). And most impressively he’s only gotten better as time has gone on; McCarron has completed at least 70 percent of his passes in each of Alabama’s last three wins.
Honestly, does that sound like a guy who isn’t ready for Saturday? And really, the more I think about the Crimson Tide’s offense, the more I wonder if this is the real question…
Are Alabama’s Wide Receivers Ready?:
Ok, so let me just start by saying that I like Alabama’s receivers. Darius Hanks and Marquis Maze have both been around so long I feel like they’re practically my family, and Brad Smelley and Kenny Bell have been nice additions this year. Between the four of them, they’ve give McCarron a nice combination of speed and size, combining for over 1,000 receiving yards this season.
At the same time, it’s one thing to do it against Florida, Tennessee and Arkansas, and it’s quite another to do it against these LSU defensive backs. Alabama’s receivers simply haven’t seen a group with the speed and skill that LSU is going to bring to the table on Saturday night. Not to mention my even bigger concern, which is this: When McCarron absolutely, positively needs to make a big throw, who does he go to? I know that Maze is his leading receiver, but neither he nor any of the other three are a Julio Jones-type physical freak that a quarterback can just throw the ball up to and expect him to make a play, or out-muscle past his defender at the line of scrimmage. In other words, all these guys are solid second and third options, but I’m not sure they’re a No. 1 guy. Well, what happens if they can’t create separation? What if they can’t beat their man with straight speed vertically? What happens if Morris Claiborne, Tyrann Mathieu, Tharold Simon are just plain better than them?
It’s a fair question, and one that I haven’t really heard anyone ask.
Going to LSU’s side of the ball, there are a lot of angles I could take.
Still, let me start by asking…
What About Jordan Jefferson?:
Go ahead, admit it, you were not expecting a Jordan Jefferson reference here, were you? Well honestly, I can’t blame you. After all, Jefferson basically has turned into a glorified wildcat back since his return from suspension, running the ball more than twice as many times (22) as he’s thrown it (10). Based on what we’ve seen so far, George Jefferson is as likely to have an impact throwing the ball Saturday as Jordan Jefferson is.
But while it’d be easy to dismiss him, don’t forget that Jordan Jefferson could quietly be a key to victory. At the very least we know he’s not afraid of Alabama, given that he probably played the best game of his career against the Crimson Tide last November.
Which brings me back to Saturday, and leads to another question. Given that LSU is coming off a bye week, and given that Les Miles has been known in the past for his umm, "interesting play-calling decisions," you’ve got to think he’s got something brewing with Jefferson, right? He has to.
Staying With LSU’s Offense, How About Their Wide Receivers?:
Since we’re all friends here, I’ll be honest. With Terrence Tolliver graduating last spring and Russell Shepard suspended to start the year, I kind of thought that this might be the weak point of LSU’s entire team.
Yeh umm, about that.
Truthfully, this could very well be the most surprising position group in all of college football. Rueben Randle has emerged into a straight up star (he’s averaging damn near 20 yards per catch…geez), and Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry have turned into pretty sweet second and third options. (On a completely different note, Landry is also a hell of a threat on kickoff coverage as we learned against Auburn).
Now before we go any further, I already know what you’re thinking: “Aaron, if LSU’s pass offense is so good, why are they only ranked 99th nationally.”
It’s a good question, at least until you dig deeper in the stats. Because while LSU is ranked just 99th in passing yardage, it’s thanks in large part to the fact that they’re ranked just 109th nationally in total pass attempts (176). Simply put, if you don’t throw the ball a lot, you’re usually not going to throw for a lot of yards.
Actually, I take that back. Because despite barely throwing the ball, LSU actually ranks 18th nationally in yards per completion. Meaning that when they pass, it’s usually for a big gain.
Which kid of brings me to my next point…
How Good Are Alabama’s Corners?:
Ok, so I don’t mean “good” in a tangible sense. Dre Kirkpatrick is obviously good. You don’t to be Mel Kiper (or have to Mel Kiper’s hair) to see that.
Still, let’s dig deeper here though. With LSU, we know they have legitimately good corners. Not just good athletes playing corner, but guys that are legit lockdown guys. Mo Claiborne is an obvious choice, and Tharold Simon and even Ron Brooks have proven an
aptitude in the coverage game too. And even though Tyrann Mathieu plays in more of a safety-ish/corner-ish hybrid role, he’s got some picks too.
But what about Alabama?
Again, Kirkpatrick is good, but is really a great cover corner? Maybe, but right now I feel like he’s known more as a “big-hitter” than a “shutdown guy.” Plus, it’s not like ‘Bama hasn’t gotten burned by big plays this year. Anyone remember the first play of the Florida game? Or the few times that Tyler Wilson actually had time to throw and beat the Crimson Tide deep? As talented as Alabama’s defensive backs are, and as much as they’re improved from last year, I still think they’re as close to a weak spot as this defense has.
Is that nitpicky? Sure. But remember, it could only take one or two plays to swing this game. And in the passing game is where it could happen.
Moving in a different direction. How about…
The Running Game?:
Much like these two defenses, it’s fascinating how effective but truly different these each of these teams play.
With Alabama, the Crimson Tide remind me of that old Brady Bunch line that “It’s all about Marsha, Marsha, Marsha!” Only for the Tide, it’s all about “Trent, Trent, Trent!!” It’s about Trent Richardson to the right. And Trent Richardson to the left. It’s about Trent Richardson up the middle and Trent Richardson on the goal line, in the passing game and on returns. There isn’t one way Trent Richardson can’t beat you.
As for LSU, well again, they run the ball really well. Just in a much different way than Alabama does.
Unlike most, it seems as though LSU uses the pass to set up the run rather than vice-versa. While in years past the offensive coaching staff has seemed to say “Let’s just try not to lose this game early,” this year it’s more like they’re saying “let’s jump out to a lead early,” then hit the ground and pound them with the running game.
And so far, it’s worked to perfection. It worked against Oregon. It worked against West Virginia. It worked against Tennessee and Auburn. But will it work Saturday?
Finally, wrapping up…
Who Wins And Why:
When breaking down this game my final analysis of this game, I could go a million different ways. I could ask how LSU will attack ‘Bama’s defense? I could ask if A.J. McCarron is ready for LSU’s defensive backs? I could ask (as I did in the last paragraph) who’ll have more success running the ball, or forcing turnovers.
But above all, rather than looking at stats and matchups, when a game is this close and two teams this evenly matched it comes down to the intangibles.
On the surface level it appears that there isn’t a team in college football team better prepared for a game like this than Alabama. Not just for the tangible reasons like “this game is in Tuscaloosa,” or “the Tide have the most top-end NFL talent in college football,” but more for the intangible reasons. Most importantly in the day-to-day approach this team takes. Nick Saban is famous for “The Process,” his mantra for doing the right things, the right way, every day.
And really, it extends beyond that. It’s the idea that no one player is bigger than the program. No game is bigger than the one right in front of you. Give 100 percent effort, 100 percent of the time, and things will work out for you on the field Saturday. I found it fascinating that on ESPN’s All-Access show the other day, Saban said the most important thing he could do as a coach was to treat this game just like any other. As he explained it, if the coaches are treating it like any other game, so too will the players. If they’re nervous and uptight, it’ll trickle down as well. Again, success is in the details at Alabama, and nothing proves it better than that quote from Saban.
Still, when I think about this game, I can’t help but think back to one conversation I had earlier in the year. It was on my podcast, with Carter Bryant who covers the LSU football team down in Baton Rouge.
While I can’t remember the conversation verbatim, what Carter told me was that with this LSU team the only talk since this summer has been about a National Championship. Not “if they are going to win one,” but “that they are going to.” There weren’t going to be any excuses. They weren’t going to let anything get in their way.
And the more I watch this LSU team, the more I think about those words. Not only do the Tigers play like a team that “expects to win,” they play like one that “refuses to lose.”
Nothing fazes these guys. LSU has won at home, on the road and on neutral fields. They’ve beaten teams that could very well win the Pac-12 (Oregon) and Big East (West Virginia), and have done it under all different circumstances. When Jefferson got suspended before the first game, Jarrett Lee stepped up and kept things going. When Russell Shepard went out, Beckham and Landry replaced his production. When Spencer Ware was suspended, Michael Ford replaced him and when Mathieu and Simon went out, Ron Brooks stepped in and played like a starter. Again, there are no excuses with this team. When someone is out with an injury or suspension, the next guy just steps up and the team keeps winning. LSU certainly doesn’t have the same “process” as Alabama. But it’s just as effective.
I don’t know exactly how things will play out Saturday. I don’t know if it’ll be a big play in the passing game, if it’ll be another second half surge from Spencer Ware, or if the Honey Badger sniff out another game-changing turnover that results in points.
But I do believe LSU will win.
LSU 23, Alabama 16.
It doesn’t matter the venue or the opponent, like they have all season, LSU will figure out a way to come out on top.
*****
As has been the case every week, I’ve allowed the readers of this site to weigh in with their thoughts on the biggest games, and one took me up on LSU-Alabama this week.
Here is Ross Collings (@Rossenator22) with his take on LSU-Bama:
The Superbowl is almost upon us!! ("but it's only November?") Oops I meant LSU vs Bama, although it might as well be the Superbowl, the entire week has seen people discuss this game on radio, websites, Twitter, Facebook etc. and the talking won't stop until 8pm Saturday. The game is huge for both teams, but who has the edge?
In terms of talent, I certainly think it's LSU. Both teams have an array of top talent on both sides of the ball, but LSU has that killer edge that has been unique so far this season. They have dismantled pretty much every opponent they have played, thanks to some killer defensive play and some productive offense. LSU will have play-maker Tyranne Mathieu available, as well as guys like Steven Ridley and Reuben Randle who can score on anyone at any moment, pretty scary.
But then there is the "Nick Saban factor". Listen, I'm an Auburn fan through and through, as big as they come, but I feel like this will be a Bama win and maybe a BIG win. Nick Saban has done well with very talented teams, and will have his team ready for this Saturday. You think he will let his former team come into his own stadium and beat him on a National stage? You bet he won't.
Prediction: Bama 28 - 16 LSU
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