| 23 September 2011
Well, here we are Week 4. And what a lovely week it is. Where the contenders start---- errrrrrrr (cut to sound of a record being scratched).
That’s right, I didn’t just go where you expected me to, did I? Because for everything we think we know about college football right now, there is still plenty more to learn. Sure there are a handful of teams like LSU that have already been tested. Of course there are plenty more like Arkansas that haven’t. Sure there are some like Florida who’ve totally blown expectations out of the water. There are also some like Virginia Tech, USC and Texas A&M that we’re still not sure what to make of. Yes Stanford had a nice win over Arizona, but is that more an indictment of how good Stanford is, or how bad the Wildcats are? Same with South Carolina-Georgia, Auburn-Clemson and Baylor-TCU. We just, don’t know.
We’ve learned a lot through three weeks of college football, but there is still plenty more to learn.
Starting with…
GEORGIA TECH (-6 ½) over North Carolina: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ESPN
This game has to be the headliner of “Need To Know More Saturday,” right? After all, how can anyone really say they know anything about either? It’s impossible. Between the two of them, they’ve got a combined six wins and zero losses, but with more victories coming against FCS schools (two) than teams which made bowl games last year (one). To say these two teams are mysterious would be an understatement; they’re more mysterious than Danny Sheridan’s sources on Cam Newton.
So obviously take this pick with a grain of salt, but I actually like Georgia Tech. They are always tough at home, and always tough when you don’t have a bye week to prepare for them, a luxury North Carolina had last year. They didn’t this time around, and instead the Tar Heels forced to play Georgia Tech in their first road game of the year, coming off the emotion of their ACC opener a week ago.
Again, we don’t know much about either of these teams. We should know plenty more by 3:30 p.m. Saturday.
Georgia (-10) over OLE MISS: Saturday, 12:21 p.m. SEC Network
Really, the difference between these two teams right now is attitude. I don’t think either one is particularly good, deep or all that talented. But to Georgia’s credit, what they lack in skill and depth, they actually showed with heart in the South Carolina loss a few weeks ago. They’re playing hard for Mark Richt, but right now they just remind me of a puppy that can’t stop peeing on the furniture. They want to please, want to win, desperately want to do well by Richt…they’re just not entirely sure how to yet.
As for Ole Miss? Man, oh man. If Georgia is like a new puppy trying to please, the Rebels are like one of those chain-smoking, belly shirt wearing, out of control teens you see on Dr. Phil or something (Not that I watch Dr. Phil. I swear!). Not only is Ole Miss fundamentally bad at the sport of football, but watching them against Vanderbilt last week, it really did seem like they were playing to get Houston Nutt fired. As in, “Going out of their way to be bad on purpose, with the hope that when they showed up for film on Sunday, he wouldn’t be there,” bad.
So I guess when it comes to this game, I’ll wrap up by saying two things:
1. I think Georgia wins…big.
2. I think you’re more likely to see Houston Nutt working alongside Tim Brando, Spencer Tillman and Tony Barnhart in a CBS studio next season, than you are to see him working in Oxford.
TEXAS A&M (-3) over Oklahoma State: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ABC
You know how Dos Equis has the “Most Interesting Man In the World?” Well to me, this is the battle of the “Most Truthworthy Quarterbacks In The World.”
Starting with Brandon Weeden, the man (emphasis on man) continues to defy all logic. Think about it. Last year we thought he’d suck as a replacement to Zac Robinson. He was even better than Robinson was the previous season. We thought he’d struggle without Dana Holgorsen. Weeden has somehow made himself better. Hell, we were even afraid that at some point this season he might hit a mid-life crisis, buy a Harley and start dating a girl with bicep tattoos. Nope the guy just keeps on chucking touchdowns.
Then there’s Ryan Tannehill. I don’t know what to say about the guy other than that he’s college football’s magic elixir; everything he touches turns to gold, including Mike Sherman’s coaching career. Again, think about it. A year ago we thought Mike Sherman’s career prospects were at best “a halfway decent high school coach,” and at worst “a greeter at Wal-mart,” yet since inserting Tannehill at quarterback, even Sherman’s career has been completely reborn. The Aggies are 8-1 since Tannehill took over at quarterback last year, and honestly, a team that I firmly believe can upset Oklahoma and win this conference. That obviously doesn’t happen without the quarterback change.
I guess what I’m trying to say is that for all the confidence I lack in Houston Nutt, I make up for with overwhelming confidence in each of these quarterbacks. I don’t feel comfortable picking against either.
But with the home crowd, the better defense and better running game, I’ll take Tannehill and A&M. I’m just not doing it comfortably.
Florida State (+1 ½) over CLEMSON: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ESPN
No, no, no, no, no, no, no.
No.
No.
I’m not falling for Clemson again. I’ve seen this same script too many times: Clemson looks great one weekend, pulls off the big upset, makes everyone believe “this is the year,” then comes out flatter than a pancake the following Saturday. It’s a semi-annual event, like the Victoria’s Secret fashion show, and this time around I’m not getting fooled.
So give me Florida State. I don’t care if E.J. Manuel isn’t playing. I don’t care if Clint Trickett is less mobile than a three-legged dog. I don’t care if Bert Reed, Kenny Shaw and Greg Reid are all questionable.
Until the Tigers can prove to me that they can play up two weeks in a row, I’m staying away.
ALABAMA (-11 ½) over Arkansas: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. CBS
When I first saw this point spread, my initial reaction was, “Wait, what did I miss?” before quickly scanning the internet for headlines like “A.J. McCarron Arrested,” “Bobby Petrino Deported,” or “Nasty Case Of Malaria Hits Fayetteville: Up To 80 Razorbacks Expected To Miss Saturday’s Game.” When I saw none of those headlines, I was equal parts relieved and disappointed.
But then, I sat back and thought about this game. And when I did, I realized this: What do we really know about Arkansas? This will be Tyler Wilson’s first start on the road, and as we all know, Bryant-Denny is a heck of a place to make your first start (or for that matter your 30th). Not to mention that the Hogs could be missing their best defensive player in Jake Bequette, and that with all due respect, I’m still not sold on their running game. Ronnie Wingo, I like you buddy. But you’re not Knile Davis. You just aren’t.
Because of all that, I’m also a little concerned that Arkansas falls into the same trap that Penn State did a few weeks ago, in that, if they don’t score early (the first possession or two), I think that Alabama’s defense could simply eat them alive. Granted, the Hogs are much more talented than the Lions were. I get that, I really do. Still, like a lot of really good offensive coaches, Petrino scripts those first few series, and if Arkansas can’t get some points on the board early, I really do wonder if they’ll be able to later so in the 
game. As a good example, just think back to last year’s game between these two. After their quick start, the Hogs sputtered, and basically did nothing against Alabama the entire second half. And that was a much more talented Arkansas offense, a much more inexperienced Alabama defense, and at Arkansas.
In the end, I actually see the Arkansas-Alabama game going down a lot like the Penn State-Alabama one.
Arkansas holds tight early, but eventually ‘Bama’s defense and running game wear them down by the second half. The Hogs are a good team, but they’re just getting Alabama at the wrong time of year.
Tide 27, Arkansas 13
Florida (-19 ½) over KENTUCKY: Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ESPN
At first I was nervous about a young Florida team giving so many points on the road. Especially after a big win like they got last week.
Then I remembered they were plenty Kentucky. The only bigger “Joke,” than the Wildcats coach, is their offense. Not only do I think the Wildcats will struggle to move the ball, not only do I think they might get shutout, hell, it wouldn’t even shock me if Kentucky ended the game with negative yardage. They’re that bad, and Florida’s defense is that good. This matchup is quite literally the un-immaculate force against the immovable object. Or something.
Point being, Florida wins big.
OKLAHOMA (-19 ½) over Missouri: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. FX
My initial reaction was to back Missouri here. The more I think back to that Arizona State game, the more I think that the Tigers are actually kinda sneaky good. They aren’t “Win the Big XII” good, or even “Win by overcoming our coach icing our kicker” good. But mark my words, they will jump up and beat one of the big boys this year. I can promise you that.
At the same time, I just don’t think it’s this weekend. Not with Oklahoma returning home, and more importantly, not after their relatively quiet offensive performance against Florida State last weekend.
Now understand, that’s not a knock on the Sooners at all; if anything, I firmly believe that Florida State’s defense is one of the two or three best in the country. But after being held to “just” 23 points, and having to settle for a bunch of field goals last weekend, I think Landry Jones and Co. are going to want to put up touchdowns on the board this Saturday.
Like I said, I like Missouri, and think they get someone eventually. But this is the wrong game, in the wrong place, against the wrong team.
LSU (-5 ½) over WEST VIRGINIA: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ABC
First thing’s first, I’ve got to ask: Is anyone as excited for “Dana After Dark,” as I am? Really, the possibilities are endless. Will we see Holgorsen drinking a can of Natty Lite in the pregame? Will girls in bikinis be calling in plays from the sidelines instead of back-up quarterbacks? Will Dana be waving his shirt around his head by halftime? Tune into Dana After Dark to find out.
As for the on the field stuff, I actually like LSU. While the concerns are there (the road crowd, West Virginia’s pass heavy attack), I just think that this team proved last week that they’re perfectly built to win in crazy environments like this. As Carter Bryant said on my podcast Wednesday night, “defense travels,” and so too does running the ball. There’s no better way to keep a high-powered offense off the field, and quiet a loud crowd, then by continually picking up first downs and moving the chains. Well, with their big offensive line going against the undersized 3-3-5 front from the Mountaineers, LSU is built exactly to do that.
It might not be pretty early, but late, LSU is going to do exactly what they did against Mississippi State last week. They’re going to run the ball and keep running the ball, and by the fourth quarter, West Virginia will be worn down and worn out.
LSU by a touchdown.
Oregon (-15) over ARIZONA: Saturday, 10:15 p.m. ESPN2
At this point, watching Nick Foles play for this team would be a lot like seeing Mother Teresa forced to live in the Jersey Shore house. Not only is it not fair, it’s practically inhumane. I feel like we should send in the Red Cross to rescue the poor guy from Tucson.
Otherwise, I’ve really got nothing to share here. Oregon is faster, stronger and better at just about every position on the field. I suspect they win comfortably.
ARIZONA STATE (-2 ½) over USC: Saturday, 10:15 p.m. ESPN
In all seriousness, couldn’t you make the case that this is the team Dennis Erickson has been waiting to coach his whole life? The Sun Devils are fast, athletic, wildly skilled…and of course incredibly undisciplined. A lot like their coach actually.
And really, it was that lack of discipline that was pretty much the sole reason that the Sun Devils lost to Illinois last week. Were they more talented than the Illini? Of course, what kind of stupid question is that? At the same time, you could almost smell the trap coming a mile away. Flying half way across the country, the week after a big-time win, that was a pick as obvious as backing the Harlem Globetrotters.
Well this week the Sun Devils return home, and return humbled. Plus, I’m still not sold on USC. I need to see them take of business against a real team, away from the Coliseum.
Do that, and I’ll be a believer.
Until then…
Now, let’s get to the Fan’s Take:
Ross Collings (@rossenator22) from England writes in on Alabama-Arkansas:
There has been quite a few exciting games in the past between Arkansas and Alabama, and this one looks to follow trend, as Arkansas travels to Tuscaloosa to square off against a stout Alabama team. This will be a real test for Petrino and Saban, as Bama's defense has looked unbeatable since the season started and this Arkansas offense will pose a lot of problems for Nick Saban. I have no doubt that Alabama will score some points on Arkansas but can Arkansas put points on Bama? The Tide have a fast, efficient defense but they haven't faced a real offense like the Hawgs yet, and the epic battle between both strengths will be an exciting prospect for anyone watching, this self-confessed Auburn fan will definitely be viewing to see whether the Tide's defense is really what it's cracked up to be.
My prediction for this game will be 28-17 Alabama. I think Alabama's defense is too fast and strong for Petrino's team, but I wouldn't be surprised if Arkansas were to win this game either. If the Hawgs can prepare for this one properly, then they have the chance to take a win out of Tuscaloosa.
Matt Hubacher (@GamingIncCEO) writes in on Oregon-Arizona:
Oregon has responded well after the opening game hiccup against LSU reeling off back to back blowout wins against Nevada and Missouri State. Now they travel to Tucson to play an Arizona team that has historically played Oregon tough, especially at home.
However, several factors are going against the Wildcats in this matchup. First and foremost, Arizona doesn’t/can’t run the ball. ‘Zona is averaging a woeful 55.7 rush ypg and only 2.6 rush yards per carry. Sure they were down early against Okie Lite, but against both Stanford and Northern Arizona they barely even tried to run. This is important because if there is one aspect where Oregon is significantly worse this year its rush defense.
Next, the schedule hurts Arizona. Not only do Stoops’ Troops play their third top-ten ranked opponent in a row, but the defensive coaching staff has to prepare for another high-scoring offense which is completely different from the previous two. Oklahoma State came with the “Air Raid” spread (and scored), then Stanford brought its “22” pro-style (two tight ends in the I-formation) and scored, now Oregon brings the spread option, and will likely score as well. Arizona does throw the ball effectively, averaging over 300 pass ypg and 8.2 pass ypc, but unfortunately All-American CB Cliff Harris is back off suspension for the Ducks (he does, however, still have 8Gs of traffic tickets to deal with) and will look to shut down WR Juron Criner. Plus, Harris gives Oregon a dynamic presence on special teams, yet another opportunity for the Quacks to score points.
All of this adds up to a long night for Arizona, who has lost seven of their last eight games going back to last October (thanks Northern Arizona!). During this matchup we will probably see a range of emotion from Mike Stoops - actually, we will probably just see him throwing a lot of temper tantrums, screaming like a maniac, and generally acting like a child. I LOVE MY DUCKS!
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