| 09 September 2011
Well folks, one weekend of college football is in the books, and as Craig Kilborn used to ask at the end of every episode of The Daily Show, “What did we learn today?”
In no particular order, here’s what I learned from Week 1 of the college football season: It’s going to be a fun season in the Big XII…you know, since Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Baylor and Texas A&M can score on anyone; Will Muschamp is the real deal down in Gainesville; Charlie Weis is too. And by the way Charlie, I must say, you’ve never looked tanner; Auburn’s most valuable player last year wasn’t Cam Newton, it was Nick Fairley; If the Dos Equis guy is the “Most Interesting Man In The World,” Luke Fickell is quite possibly the most intimidating (Anyone who can pin Chris Spielman in a wrestling match is a bad dude in my book); Oregon is good, but needs plenty of work; LSU is good, and doesn’t…the more suspended players, the better!; I’m never again doubting Boise State; I’m never again not doubting Mark Richt; and Houston Nutt very well might be the luckiest man on this planet. How he still has a job is beyond me. Maybe he was part of one of those “My Wish,” campaigns on ESPN on or something.
Anyway, let’s get to Week 2.
As always, the picks are against the spread, with the home team in caps. And just like last weekend, I have allowed my readers to chime in with their opinions on what I call “The Fan’s Take,” at the bottom.
Now…let’s get to the picks!
ARIZONA STATE (-7) over Missouri: Friday, 10:30 p.m. ESPNDon’t mind me, but I’m going to go ahead, make up a phrase, and call this a “Denny Green Game,” for Arizona State. Why Denny Green? Because if the Sun Devils “Are…who we thought they were,” then this is a game that they absolutely, positively need to win.
For starters, I watched Missouri last week, and my goodness were they bad. Seriously, just about the only thing uglier to come out of Week 1, was seeing Randy Edsall sprint down the sidelines, flailing his arms like a kid chasing an ice cream truck, after a Maryland touchdown against Miami. Other than that, Missouri was about as bad as it got. Of course in the Tigers defense, part of their struggles may have been that they were simply looking ahead to this game, and maybe, just maybe, Miami (OH) is a little better than we thought they might be. The Redhawks did win 10 games last year, after all. Still, I don’t buy Missouri as legit for even half a second; quite frankly I’d be stunned if they won more than seven games this season.
Anyway, back to Arizona State. Look, I know they’ve got their problems. They enter this game incredibly banged up, and Brock Osweiler barely has more snaps as a college quarterback than I do. At the same time, I don’t care. We’ve heard about Arizona State for six months now, heard how they’re a veteran team built to win right now, and heard how they are the Pac-12 South favorites.
Well guess what? If they are who they say they are, they’ll win this game, and win it convincingly.
I think they do.
Oregon State (+20 ½) over WISCONSIN: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ESPN
In addition to the “Denny Green Game,” I’d also like to present you with an old staple of the Aaron Torres Sports college football weekend preview. It’s the “If it’s too good to be true, it probably is, sucker bet of the week!” And this looks like it.
Honestly, I can’t think of one compelling reason to back Oregon State here. They lost to a I-AA team last weekend, while at the same time, Wisconsin beat up UNLV like the Rebels stole something, and the game is a noon EST kick-off. For a team traveling from the West Coast, that’s as red a flag as you’ll get.
Still, as good as Wisconsin was, I have my questions about them. Their defense sure did seem slow on the edges, and I expect the Badgers themelves to be sluggish for the early kick. Remember, even though this is basically a 9 a.m. kick for Oregon State, it’s still an early kick for the Badgers too. Coming off the emotion of an opening night game, how pumped do you think they are to play here?
Wisconsin will win this game. But remember, if a point spread seems too good to be true, it probably is.
Mississippi State (-6 ½) over AUBURN: Saturday, 12:21 p.m. SEC Network
No one could, or would argue that this is the biggest game on the SEC schedule this weekend. That title obviously belongs to South Carolina-Georgia, which could very well be a de-facto SEC East Championship Game. Not to mention, it could also be a springboard for Mark Richt into a second career selling knives door-to-door. We’ll have to wait and see on the second one.
Still, this game is plenty compelling, especially for Dan Mullen. For all the progress Mullen has made in two short years in Starkville, guess what Mullen’s combined record is against SEC West opponents? It’s 2-8, with both wins coming against Ole Miss. Meaning that Mullen is a combined 0-8 against the likes of Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn and LSU. For those of you who are mathematically challenged, that’s a zero percent winning percentage against the big four.
So as nice as Mississippi State’s nine wins were last year, all that means is that the 2010 Bulldogs were a good “team.” Well, if Mullen wants to build a good “program,” instead, this is a game that he simply has to win. I don’t care that it’s on the road. I don’t care that this is the SEC. I don’t care that Auburn is the defending BCS Champs. If Mississippi State wants to be taken seriously as a “program,” this is a win they need to get.
(And by the way, what the heck are we supposed to make of another wild fourth quarter comeback by Auburn last weekend, after a season full of them in 2010? I mean seriously, what kind of deal with the devil did Gene Chizik make?
Also, why do I feel like Trooper Taylor may have had something to do with all this?)
TENNESSEE (-4 ½) over Cincinnati: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ESPN2
Considering I didn’t see either of these teams play a single snap last week, I’m about as qualified to pick this game as I am to give relationship advice. And if you’re wondering, that means I’m not actually qualified at all. Just ask any of my 
ex-girlfriends.dooleypants
But enough about them, I want to talk about the newest love in my life, Derek Dooley. Honestly, I love everything about him. I love his hair. Those dark brown eyes. His crazy orange pants. Whatever Derek Dooley is selling, I’m buying. Well, anything except those hideous pants, I suppose.
Anyway, I’m rambling (not to mention getting a little flush in the cheeks), so let me just tell you that I’m taking Tennessee here. At home, with more talent, and the dreamiest of coaches, I can’t see how they don’t cover the points.
AIR FORCE (+2) over TCU: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. Versus
I must have gone back and forth on this one at least 180 times. After thinking about it for way too long (seriously, I had two birthdays and a bar mitzvah in the time it took me to make this pick) I’m leaning toward Air Force.
Looking at this objectively, I think TCU is better than they showed last Friday (and that Baylor is a better team overall than people realize), but at the same time, the schedule makers did the Horned Frogs no favors here. To go from Baylor’s high-flying, pass-happy, Robert Griffin-to-Kendall Wright air attack to the triple-option is bad enough. But to do it with only a week to prepare, on the road, at altitude, against a team that probably spent the whole off-season preparing for you and waiting for this game? That’s just unfair.
Remember, with TCU heading to the Big East in 2012, they’re going to get everyone’s best shot in the Mountain West this year. I think it starts this weekend.
Alabama (-10) over PENN STATE: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ABC
So here’s the deal Alabama fans: I’ve some good news and some bad news.
Let’s start with the bad, and let me tell you that the quarterback situation is about as concerning as I’d expected it to be. I’ve been saying all along to be worried; really if there had been a clear-cut favorite coming out of spring or fall camp we’d have known about it, and Nick Saban wouldn’t have waffled into the season making his decision. Well, last Saturday proved exactly that. As you all know by now, A.J. McCarron and Phillip Sims looked kinda, sort shaky out there, combining for four picks against Kent State. From what I saw, poor Sims looked especially lost. Somebody should've handed the kid a compass and road map before his second series under center.
But now, let’s get to the good news, and let me tell you this Alabama fans: Your defense is as good as advertised, if not better. And that defense is why you cruise Saturday.
The truth is that to beat Alabama, a team is going to have to score in bunches. If anyone thinks they're beating the Tide with long, drawn out, 12 play, 81 yard drives, well it ain’t happening. The way to beat the Tide (if it happens) will be with big, explosive plays... kind of like what South Carolina did to the Tide last year. Looking at this weekend, I just don’t see where the explosive plays will come from. Penn State doesn’t have nearly the athletes to do damage, nor a quarterback good enough to test the Tide vertically.
I’m thinking something like a 21-9 final, and Alabama cruising after halftime. But going forward? The Tide plenty tested. Get that quarterback situation figured out.
South Carolina (-3) over GEORGIA: Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ESPN
Holy crap. Has anyone besides me heard the audio from Mark Richt’s Wednesday press conference? If you haven’t heard it, go ahead and listen here. You can even stop reading this article if you need to. I won’t be offended. Promise (Ok, maybe I’ll be a little offended).
For those who can’t listen, let me just tell you that in the audio, Richt sounds bad. Really bad. I honestly don’t know if I’ve ever heard a coach sound more defeated, this early in the season. It was so depressing, I practically want to paint my nails black and lay in bed with my shades drawn all day. And I’m not even a Georgia fan.
So with that, I really don’t think there’s a need to break down this game any further. I mean yes, I could tell you about Georgia’s inept offensive line, and how Devin Taylor and Jadeveon Clowney might literally kill Aaron Murray because of it. I could tell you about how good Marcus Lattimore is, and how crisp this offense looked once Stephen Garcia came in the game for the Gamecocks last weekend. And I could even tell you about how frustrated I was watching the Bulldogs play last weekend, and how they did so with a total lack of toughness, and with a group of coaches on the sidelines that showed not an ounce of toughness or heart.
I could tell you all that, but why bother? The audio of Mark Richt’s press conference says it all.
If the coach of the team sounds like he’s already given up, why should we expect the players to be any different?
BYU (+7) over TEXAS: Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ESPN2
Ok, enough negativity, let’s talk something positive, and let’s talk…BYU?
Wait, what?
Let’s go ahead and start with their offense, which…actually, maybe we should skip BYU’s offense. You know, since they looked some combination of flustered, anemic and impotent last Saturday.
Instead, let’s focus on the defense, and the defensive line in specific, which was nothing short of outstanding last weekend against Ole Miss. The Rebels entered the game with- what most of us believed- was one of the best offensive lines in the game, and not only did BYU get the better of them, the Cougars absolutely dominated. Ole Miss, finished with 64 yards on the ground total, for a meager 2.2 yards per carry. For those who didn’t have the pleasure of watching, Ole Miss’ offense was definitely as bad as those numbers make them sound. And it was because of BYU’s wildly underrated defensive line.
Now of course the question is, will Jake Heaps provide enough offense for BYU to actually win this game? That, I don’t know.
But I do expect the Cougars to cover the points.
Utah (+10) over USC: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. Versus
This is another game that I went back and forth on about a million times. On the one hand, after watching USC last week, I’m not sure they should be favored by double-digits against any team that isn’t coached by Rick Neuheisel. At the same time, what do we really know about Utah? Also, doesn’t this just feel like one of those games where everyone expects USC to struggle, then you look at the box score Sunday morning, see that Matt Barkley threw for 340 yards and five touchdowns, scratch your head, and say, huh?
I could really see this one going either way, but in the end, I’ll take Utah and the points. It seemed to me that USC’s biggest problem last weekend against Minnesota, was the same problem they had last year, and that’s depth. In the first half against Minnesota the defense flew around the field, and the offense line blew everyone off the line of scrimmage. In the second half, everyone looked, well, kinda tired.
Well depth isn’t something that can get fixed in a day or a week. USC could very well struggle all season long.
Notre Dame (-3.5) over MICHIGAN: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ABC
Brian Kelly better be careful. I am this close to breaking up with him. Understand in all the years I’ve been watching college football, I’ve only broken up with one coach in my entire life. That was Rich Rodriguez, and that was after Michigan gave up their 190,000th point last year. I just couldn’t take it anymore.
(Really, what made the break-up with Rich Rod so tough was that I wasn’t really breaking up with him, so much as I was breaking up with him because of Greg Robinson. It was kind of like when you’re dating a girl you really like…but her mom hates your guts, her dad owns four guns, and at some point you realize, “This just isn’t worth it anymore.” That’s basically what happened with me and Rich Rod last year.
I guess what I’m trying to say is, if Rodriguez reemerges as a head coach in 2012, and does so without Greg Robinson, then maybe…just maybe, we can make this thing work.
Anyway, back to your regularly scheduled preview)
So, as I was saying, Brian Kelly is skating on thin ice, but luckily, I think Tommy Rees bails him out Saturday. As bad as Notre Dame looked in the first half with Dayne Crist in the starting lineup, they looked just as good when Rees came in. The team played with more conviction, and everyone just seemed more confident with Rees under center. You obviously can’t teach the physical traits that Crist has. At the same time, you can’t teach what Rees has mentally either.
Rees should be enough to spare me and Coach Kelly for at least one more week.
Now, let’s get to the “Fan’s Take”
Ross Collings (@rossenator22) from England writes in:
The pressure is on Mark Richt to deliver this season, and so far he has done the exact opposite. Last week Georgia faced off against the poster boy of injustice the Boise State Broncos and came away empty-handed.
This week Georgia hosts Steve Spurrier’s South Carolina Gamecocks, as the Cocks look to continue winning after their win over East Carolina. For Spurrier, this is another must-win game if his team wants any chance of potentially playing for a National Championship in January.
What does Georgia have to do to win? That will depend on their defense. If Georgia can get a few crucial stops and capitalize off them then they have a big chance to win the game, not to mention being able to disrupt Garcia (or Shaw) and force a few mistakes from them both is vital. Shaw has limited experience and Garcia is as mistake prone as water is wet.
I expect the Bulldogs to get a few nice stops on defense, but I’m not totally convinced they can capitalize off them. South Carolina has players on defense such as Devin Taylor and Stephon Gilmore who can put pressure on, force mistakes and make plays. Not to mention the vast array of elite weapons South Carolina has in Lattimore and Jeffery. That bodes well for the Gamecocks.
Prediction: South Carolina 31-16 Georgia
Jeremy Hicks (@JMattHicks) from San Francisco writes in:
So last weekend I was half-right. My Aggies trounced SMU by 30+ and Baylor beat TCU in a close one. But, the Baylor/TCU score was nearly DOUBLE what I predicted and the Boise State Broncos force-fed me a Denny's skillet-sized portion of hot crow after what was honestly a surgical dismantling of the Georgia Bulldogs, in a virtual home game for them no less. For years I was a Boise State advocate (I've got the Facebook status wars to prove it!), and the one year I get down on them, they make me regret it. Anyways, so I was half-right. But alas, another week of college football and another week to attempt to corral the ever-elusive "full-right."
This may not come as a surprise (seeing as how I'm an Aggie homer and all), but I'm picking the BYU Cougars over the t-sips Texas Longhorns. The Horns trounced a terrible Rice Owl football team with Garrett Gilbert looking better than last year, but their run game, just like last year, was ho-hum victory.
Now BYU on the other hand, did not play a terrible football team. They went into hostile SEC territory and beat a feisty Ole Miss squad, holding them to only 64 yards rushing (2.2 yards per carry) and barely over 200 yards of total offense. It wasn't a pretty game, but it was the type of "bar-room brawl" that BYU teams have always faired well in and the type that the Longhorns have not. I'm calling 24-17 BYU over Texas at Darrel K. Royal in a relatively low-scoring matchup. Both teams will lean heavily on the run, but BYU will grind this one out in the 4th quarter to move to 2-0 while the Longhorns head to LA to face UCLA, staring at a possible 1-2 start.
Matt Hubacher (@GamingCEO), writes in:
Sure everything Mississippi State tried worked last week, with a little help from Memphis along the way. The spread rush attack averaged 8.1 ypc, the pass attack averaged 10.8 per reception, backup QB Tyler Russell played well in relief of Chris Relf, the defense allowed a mere 14 points (aided by two special teams blunders).
But that’s not why we’re ringing the Cowbell.
We’re backing MSU because Auburn is not good. I’m sorry to be that blunt, but that’s the case this year. Like several others I was monitoring the score of the Utah State/Auburn game last week and chuckled to myself. I tweeted, “That’s called karma Auburn” (note: Gaming Inc. is no fan of Auburn, Scam Newton, or Gene Chizik), then in the second half I started watching the game intently. This wasn’t karma, this wasn’t a lack of motivation, this wasn’t trickeration: Utah State was simply beating the Tigers man-on-man.
There were rumblings last year that Auburn really only had two elite players and a brilliant scheme – and they rode those elite players and that scheme to the national championship. But one year later and two 1st Round Draft picks gone, and the title defense is not looking good. Mississippi State does have LSU next week, but I think that they will give the defending champs their full attention and look to stop an 11 game losing streak in SEC openers.
The beloved Toomer’s Corner gets a much needed TP-less weekend.
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