| 27 August 2010
I've got a really bad procrastination habit. Most writers do. Mine is especially chronic.
Any excuse I can come up with to avoid doing work, I'm there. Re-runs of Sportscenter? Count me in. Constant Twitter page refreshing? I can't stop. Calling up my family to make small talk? Alright, I've never actually stooped that low, although I have come close.
Yesterday, in the midst of one of those procrastination sessions, I was skimming ESPN.com and came across Matthew Berry's "Bold Predictions," piece on fantasy football. Of course I spent 15 reading it word for word, even though I don't play fantasy football.
Either way, it got me thinking about college football this year. And what were some wacky things that I thought could happen, that no one was talking about? Not stuff like "Alabama is going to lose a game," or "Florida is going to struggle without Tim Tebow." Any clown could tell you that. But what were some really, far out there predictions?
Here are 10 I came up with...
1. Ohio State Will NOT Win the Big Ten: Why not start out with a bang and ostracize half my readers, right?
My stance on Ohio State is clear: I like them. They're going to be good. Ok, really good. You can count on Jim Tressel to get his team to 10 wins every season, the way you can count on Ronnie from Jersey Shore to get to 10 vodka tonics every time he goes to a bar. It's a certainty.
But for the millionth time, aren't we getting just a little too excited about Terrelle Pryor's Rose Bowl performance? Isn't this the same guy that Ohio State fans wanted to move to tight end in the middle of October? Isn't he the same guy who was under center when Ohio State finished 103rd in college football in passing offense last year? Because I think he was.
Speaking of that passing offense, I'm not sold on these receivers. I know the numbers tell me that Dane Sanzenbacher and DeVier Posey are pretty good, but how much of their big yardage was because of soft coverage, with defenses loading the box to protect against the run? Are there not at least 10-12 receivers in college football that you'd prefer over those guys?
Then there's the schedule. Iowa and Wisconsin on the road are brutal, even though the Buckeyes own Wisconsin. However, wasn't it last year when Ohio State needed overtime to beat Iowa...at home...when the Hawkeyes didn't even have their starting quarterback??
Again, this team is good. Very good. It's not like I'm predicting them to lose six games. I'm just not predicting them to win this conference either.
2. Staying in the Big 10, Northwestern Will Win Nine Games: I know this seems crazy, until you realize that wait a second, Northwestern (Yes, that Northwestern) has won 15 games in the last two years. And even though they finished 8-5 last year, I could make a pretty compelling case they could've finished 11-2.
How? Well, two of those losses were early, at Syracuse and against Minnesota at home. Each of those teams fell apart like a house of cards by mid-October. If Northwestern plays either a month later, they beat them. That's 10 wins. The 11th easily could have come against Auburn in the Outback Bowl, when Northwestern had about 72.65 chances to put them away, and couldn't.
As for this year's team, yes the Wildcats lose Mike Kafka, but I've talked to a lot of Northwestern fans who think his back-up Dan Persa was just as good. Ok, maybe it was just one Northwestern fan. But still. In his defense though, Persa did look awfully good filling in for Kafka against Penn State last year. How good? How about 14 for 23 passing and 14 rushes for 42 yards good. For some reason I was watching that game. And believe me when I say, the kid can play.
Finally, do yourself a favor and look at their schedule. The Little Giants with "Ice Box," playing middle linebacker could get seven wins against it.
There's no excuse for Northwestern to lose any of their first five games. None. They go to Vanderbilt (new head coach), get Illinois State at home, Rice on the road (umm, 2-10 last year. Just saying.), Central Michigan breaking in a new quarterback and new head coach, and then open Big 10 play with Minnesota a week later (Sorry Gophers fans, but there are high school teams in Florida with more Division I talent than you guys have right now).
Then Northwestern gets 50/50 home games against Purdue and Michigan State. I know that Michigan State has owned Northwestern in the past, but with half the Spartans roster currently serving time in county lock-up, I don't see them beating Northwestern. Then the Wildcats travel to Indiana Halloween weekend.
Look at that schedule again. Northwestern could easily start 8-0!!
Three of their final four games are admittedly tough, with trips to Penn State and Wisconsin and a visit from Iowa. Then again, they beat the Badgers last year, and that fourth game is against Illinois, which by my calculations should be the second to last stop on the Ron Zook Farewell Tour by then. And they don't play Ohio State or Michigan, two teams that could up-end them.
Go ahead and admit it. I just talked you into Northwestern, didn't I?
3. Tennessee Will Go To A Bowl Game: Admittedly, there's no logical reason for me to pick the Vols to win six games. Even I'm have a tough time justifying it in my head.
They've got a first year coach. A first year quarterback. Less depth than Angelina from the Jersey Shore (I know, I know, it's my second reference. I'll stop.). And they return three starts on their entire offensive line. Not starters. Starts. As in, when you take every single offensive lineman on their roster, and add up all their combined starts, you get three. Total.
And I have haven't even mentioned their schedule yet. Five of their first seven games are against teams ranked in the preseason Top 25. Three (Oregon, Florida, Alabama) are against teams coming off BCS bowl games. They get Ole Miss and Kentucky late in the year, and neither of those games will be easy. So if you want to know exactly how I think they'll get those six wins, I don't have an answer. But I do think they get them.
The main reason is Derek Dooley. I was part of the SEC Spring Coaches conference call and was impressed with the guy. He's intelligent, accountable and seemingly trustworthy. No excuses. Just put on your hard hat to go to work.
But for a team that has been passed around like an orphan kid through a bunch of foster families, that's the kind of coach they need. And it seems like they've rallied around him. Every article I've read last spring and this fall has centered around the same themes, stuff like, "I can go to Coach Dooley to talk about anything," or "He listens to us," or "We trust him." Those are the kind of coaches that guys play over their heads for. And run through walls for.
SEC Championships and BCS bowl games are still a long way away on Rocky Top. But the guys that are still at Tennessee will play hard for this coaching staff. And they will get to six wins.
4. Stanford Will Win the Pac-10: Before I start, I want to say that I think USC will win the most games in the Pac-10. But we all know their situation. The only way anyone on USC's roster is going to the Rose Bowl is if they buy a ticket to the game.
So what's left after the Trojans? Everybody's on Oregon and Oregon State's bandwagon. Except this guy.
I like Stanford. I like that they've got a smart quarterback, who is only going to get better this season. I like that they've got a really, really good head coach (Even if he's a pain in the ass). I like that their schedule has USC, Arizona and Oregon State at home, and that their toughest road game is at Oregon. Honestly, does anyone remember what happened when Stanford played Oregon last year? I'm pretty sure Stanford rushed for about 9 billionty yards, and put up 51 points on the Ducks. If there's one team that was put on Earth to pound Oregon's speedy, athletic defense, it's the big hogs from Stanford.
And really, that's the biggest reason I like Stanford to win the Pac-10: That offensive line. They return four starters off last year's team, a group that ranked fifth in college football in fewest sacks allowed, and paved the way for the sport's leading rusher, Toby Gerhart. That offensive line is why I'm not concerned about the loss of Gerhart, while the rest of the country is. They're nasty. You, I or Rosie O'Donnell could rush for 1,000 yards if we were running behind it.
So give me Stanford. Give me nine wins. And give me a trip to the Rose Bowl.
5. Boise State Quarterback Kellen Moore Will Be In New York For the Heisman Trophy Presentation In December: Truthfully, when it comes to Moore, I don't expect his numbers to be any better than they were last year. The dude tossed 39 touchdowns, threw just three interceptions and was second nationally in QB rating. You could play 25 seasons of NCAA Football 2011 on your XBox and not match those numbers.
So why do I like Moore as a Heisman contender then? For starters, he returns two really good receivers (Austin Pettis and Titus Young), and basically his whole offensive line, their backups, and their backups backups. Whoever's in charge of cleaning Moore's jersey after games this year has the easiest job in Boise. He or she could go on vacation until December and nobody would notice.
More important than just touchdown numbers and returning starters, Boise is the team that everyone's going to be rooting for this year. America wants Boise to go undefeated. To challenge the big boys. To blow up the BCS. And Moore will be the face of that.
If Boise beats Virginia Tech on Labor Day- and I think they will- we're going to see ESPN and the sports media spend the next four months talking about Boise State more than Brett Favre, Tigers Woods and Michael Vick combined. They'll cover Boise State games like Fox News covers the White House. These guys are going to be everywhere. In turn, Moore will be everywhere.
And while I don't think Moore will win the Heisman, I do think that he'll get enough residual love from Boise's run to get a trip to New York.
Get your bright blue suit ready!
6. New Texas Tech Coach Tommy Tuberville Will Win Big XII Coach of the Year: If I've said it once, I've said it a million times: History is one cruel bitch (Ok, maybe I've never said that. But work with me here!).
As I got ready for this season and started reviewing last year's stuff, I was convinced that Texas Tech was right in firing Mike Leach last winter. That his time had passed. That guys weren't playing hard for him. Maybe to a degree that was true.
But then I actually looked at their 2009 season. And you know what? They won nine frickin' games. Nine!!! They beat Nebraska and Oklahoma. If Leach needed to be fired (based on, on the field results) than 95 percent of coaches in America need to go too.
With that, you know who the big winner in all this is, right? Tommy Tuberville!!!
Tuberville gets to coach a nine win team that brings back a fifth-year starter at quarterback, and their best running back. The defense will be better, if only because it can't be much worse. Basically, Tuberville has the cushiest landing of any coach in America! And because Leach left in such a stink, anything Tuberville does will be considered progress. The guy is on a free roll. It's good to be Tommy Tuberville.
I can just see the headlines now. If Tech wins 7-8 games, the season will be viewed as a "learning process," and a "transition year." If he wins nine games, we'll hear everyone on TV saying stuff like " he's really gotten through to his players," (of course no more than the previous coaching staff "got through," to them) and that Tech is "really be starting to get it." And of course if he wins 10 games he'll be considered a genius, even though the guy who had the job before him won 11 games two years ago.
Looking around the country, I don't think there's a single coach in a better position than Tuberville right now. He's the only coach in America that could lose more games than the guy he replaced, and everyone would still be satsified.
Because of it, he'll be the Big XII Coach of the Year.
7. At Some Point This Year, You'll Be Watching LSU Quarterback Jordan Jefferson and Think To Yourself, "You Know What? This Guy Really Isn't That Bad": Remember when I was talking about history being a bitch before? Your honor, I'd like to present Jordan Jefferson as Exhibit A. The poor kid was blamed for everything but the BP oil spill these last few months.
Yet, as much as everyone bags on Jefferson, here are the facts:
- LSU had NO running game last year. None. They finished the season ranked 11th in the SEC and 105th in the country in rushing yards. To my point, Charles Scott finished the year as their top rusher and he missed the last FOUR games of the season!
- You know why LSU had no running game? Because their offensive line sucked, that's why. They ranked 105th in college football in sacks allowed last year, giving 
up 37. Sure, some of those sacks were Jefferson's fault. A lot weren't though.
- And after all that, Jordan Jefferson really wasn't that bad. He still completed 61.5 percent of his passes, which isn't great, but still better than the following guys: Greg McElroy, Daryll Clark, Matt Barkley, Jacory Harris, Jerrod Johnson, Jake Locker, Landry Jones and Jeremiah Masoli. That's a pretty good list, no?
Now to a degree, I understand LSU's frustration with the guy. He's not the raw athlete that JaMarcus Russell was (luckily, he doesn't appear to have the taste for "Purple Drank," either). He's not the cool game manager like Matt Flynn was. He doesn't have that one crazy skill (huge arm, great speed), that gets you excited to watch him every Saturday. He's just a good, solid quarterback. And good, solid quarterbacks aren't as fun to root for as the lunatic who could throw for 500 yards or throw for five interceptions on any given day.
At the same time though, we need to remember that Jefferson was the youngest quarterback in the SEC last year, and the youngest to start the season at LSU in a long time.
My guess is despite his flaws, he'll be better this year. And that there are a lot of teams in the country that would love to have him playing quarterback for them.
8. Temple Will Be Ranked In The Top 25 At Some Point: If I really had cojones this would be, "Temple Will Upset UConn or Penn State Early in the Season." I just couldn't pull the trigger (On a side note, as a UConn alum, I'm especially terrified of the Owls, and have absolutely no idea why they would ever schedule an away game at Temple. Unless something wacky happened, like their AD took incriminating photos of our AD at last year's Women's Final Four. Which is definitely a possibility. Anywayyyyy.).
Last year Temple had a dream season (especially for those of us who bet on them every week). They won nine games, went to their first bowl game since 1970-something, and have 18 starters back to do it all again. Hide the women and children!
Bernard Pierce is a beast at running back. The guy averaged 113 yards a game last year, and if you look at his stats, barely played in Temple's first two and last two regular season games. Again, as a UConn fan going against the guy I'm terrified. Penn State fans should feel the same way.
9. South Carolina Wins 7-8 Games Again This Year, And Steve Spurrier Retires/Resigns At The End of the Season: We all know it's put up or shut up time at South Carolina. They've got their most talented team in Spurrier's six years at South Carolina. The SEC East is up for grabs. For South Carolina, the time is now.
But at the same time, I just...don't...know. They've got a manageable schedule, but not one I'd call easy. Do you really see them beating Alabama, Florida or Arkansas? Because I don't. That already takes them out of the SEC East race right there. As for everybody else, they go to Auburn, Kentucky and Clemson. Any one of those games could just as easily be wins as losses. And oh, by the way, Southern Miss isn't a pushover in Week 1 either.
As for other factors: Their quarterback may have a 10 cent arm, but we all know he's got a two cent brain. Also, this whole Weslye Saunders thing is going to hang over the progam all year. And most importantly, I just don't know how bad Spurrier wants it anymore. He says he does, but at the same time, he seems to talk about his golf game an awful lot. This is the same guy that has gone on record and said he never saw himself coaching into his late 60's, yet here he is at 65 still chugging along.
I have no proof on this one, but something tells me this is it for the Old Ball Coach.
10: No Team From A BCS Conference Will Go Into Bowl Season Undefeated: Truthfully, this one really isn't such a bold prediction.
In the SEC, the only team with a real chance is Alabama. But we all know about their schedule. Plus the idea that they're going to go 12-0 in the SEC three years in a row, then win the SEC Championship Game seems like a lot to ask. Even of a Nick Saban coached team.
The Big Ten has three heavweights at the top, that are all going to beat up on each other. Plus Iowa (at Arizona) and Ohio State (Miami) have really tough out of conference games. I just don't see any of them going 12-0.
As for the Big XII, well I like Oklahoma, Nebraska and Texas. But do any of you see any of them going 13-0?
I've made my case on the Pac-10.
The ACC is going to be in for another season of contender roulette. Miami will beat Georgia Tech. Georgia Tech will beat Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech will beat North Carolina. North Carolina will beat Miami. That's just how it is. There's a reason the College Football Final guys came up with the "ACC Wheel of Destiny."
I think three or four teams in the Big East will beat up on each other.
So where does that leave us? With a season a lot like 2008, when Florida, Oklahoma, USC, Texas and Texas Tech all finished the regular season with one loss and Utah and Boise State finished undefeated.
That was an especially wacky season, and especially fun season. I expect the same this year.
And I for one can't wait.
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