Tips In Filling Out Your NCAA Tournament Bracket 2.0

Written by Aaron Torres | 16 March 2011

Right around this time last year I wrote an article called “Eight Tips For Filling Out Your NCAA Tournament Bracket.” Overall it was a fun exercise. At least for me anyway.

Well with the NCAA Tournament just 24-hours from getting fully under way, let’s update last year’s article, with some new and additional thoughts. These rules apply to any standard NCAA Tournament pool that awards points for each win, with point values going higher per round (For example, a Round 1 win gets you one point, a Round 2 win two points etc.) with the highest point total at the end of the tournament winning the whole thing. And if that's not how your pool is run, well, I'm not sure I can be friends with you.

Anyway, let's get to the tips. And also, be sure to check back at AaronTorres-Sports.com tomorrow, as I reveal my picks.

(And one final note: Yes, I know I'm a shill. But if you haven't signed up for the Aaron Torres Sports Tourney Challenge, well shame on you! Go ahead and get your picks in now to win lots of great prizes!)

Rule No. 1: Talent Almost Always Wins Out

You know all that talk about how to win in the NCAA Tournament, you need to have a senior point guard, or veteran coach, or superstar big man, or whatever? Well all of it is non-sense. You know what you actually need? Better players than everyone else. Crazy, I know.

Just taking a quick look over all the recent champions, the one overriding theme that virtually all of them had in common was more raw basketball talent than everyone else. Yes Duke was an exception last year, but looking at other recent winners it’s no contest.

As a matter of fact, let’s go through the last few years, and compare which team was considered the “most talented,” entering the tournament, in relation to who actually won the whole thing.

2010:

Most Talented Team: Kansas/Kentucky
National Champion: Duke

2009:

Most Talented Team: North Carolina
Who won the Championship: North Carolina

2008:

Most Talented Team: Kansas (I’d argue)
Who won the Championship: Kansas

2007:

Most Talented Team: Florida
Who won the Championship: Florida

2006:

Most Talented Team: UConn (Slowly dropping my head in shame)
Who won the Championship: Florida

2005:

Most Talented Team: North Carolina
Who won the Championship: North Carolina

2004:

Most Talented Team: UConn
Who won the Championship: UConn

Notice a theme there?

Again, Duke was obviously an exception last year. I get that. But at the same time, last year was also a total anomaly, where one of the No. 1 seeds was down a key player (Syracuse and Arinze Onuaku), another was wildly young (Kentucky) and overall, the rest of the field was weaker than the mixed drinks they serve at Ruby Tuesday’s. Only Kansas seemed like a sure-fire thing, and ultimately, I’m convinced that if the Jayhawks had gotten through that Northern Iowa game, they would’ve been in a fantastic position to go all the way. Yes that might sound stupid, but go ahead and watch that game again. Kansas didn’t lose that game Northern Iowa just went out and took it.

So what relevance does the “talent usually wins out,” theme have on this year’s field?

Well for one, it’s why I still think Texas can go deep into the tournament. I know, I know, I’m crazy. They’ve been awful the last three weeks, and at this point, backing them is a lot like bringing home a former stripper to meet your parents at Thanksgiving: Proceed at your own risk.

Still, when they are playing well, the Longhorns absolutely have everything. They’ve got size. They’ve got skill. They play incredible defense (Quite frankly, I’m starting to break out in a cold sweat just thinking about them). Plus, the Longhorns obviously proven they can play with the best, as evidenced by that win at Kansas.

Again, you do need to proceed at your own risk with Texas. But is there a single team in the field that Texas is absolutely incapable of beating? I say no. Again, it’s the talent talking, and right now that talent is whispering in my ear, “It’s ok Aaron. Come with us. We’re safe…”

Speaking of talent, it’s also why everyone likes Ohio State and Kansas. Simply put, they’re just better than everyone else.

Now obviously, you could still make a pretty compelling case for a handful of other teams. Duke has a whole bunch of guys that won a title last year; Pitt is probably the most experienced team in the country; and people will tell you that “this is an open field, and Notre Dame, San Diego State and BYU have a chance.” But when push comes to shove, are you really taking any of those teams in a one game situation over the Buckeyes or Jayhawks? I didn’t think so.

Moving on…

Rule No. 2: Experience Matters

My favorite saying goes a little something like this: Juniors and seniors win championships, not freshmen and sophomores. Sure I made it up. But I like it none the less.

Anyway, that’s the exact reason I picked Kentucky to lose in the Elite Eight last year, and why I’m terrified of a few teams- especially North Carolina- this year. Like Texas, Carolina is oozing with talent, but unlike the Longhorns, UNC’s talent is really young. That youth showed in ACC Tournament, where it just didn’t seem like the Tar Heels played with the sense of urgency needed in a one-and-done tournament. And if they played like that in Greensboro, why is anything going to change this time around? I’m not sure.

Most importantly, let’s look at that roster again. Yes they’re North Carolina, and yes they just took home the title two years ago. Still, who on this year’s club played big minutes in 2009? Kendall Marshall and Harrison Barnes are true freshmen so they’re out of the equation, and John Henson, Leslie McDonald and Dexter Strickland are sophomores that didn’t play in the tournament last season either. As for Tyler Zeller, well he was on that roster, but was also banged up all year and logged a total of ONE minute in that championship game. And that’s who North Carolina is going to war with in this tournament. Are they talented? Absolutely. But are they darn young? Mortifyingly so.

Rule No. 3: Your Ball-Handlers Have Got To Be Able To Make Foul Shots

To this day, my favorite NCAA Tournament story goes as follows.

It was 2002, Duke was the defending National Champion, and guard Jay Williams was everyone’s All-American (and I’m sure a huge hit with the ladies as well). Duke looked unstoppable. They were everyone’s pick. But I warned folks to stay away, that Williams- their primary ball-handler- was a notoriously lousy foul shooter. Unfortunately- just like when I used to hang out with my ex-girlfriend- nobody listened to me.

Anyway, fast-forward to the Sweet 16 that year. Duke was down by four late to Indiana, when Williams caught the ball…nailed a three…and got fouled! The arena went nuts. And all Williams had to do was make his foul shot to force overtime. He stepped to the line, and…

Clank.

Indiana got the rebound, made their foul shots and won. Duke’s season was over. Look it up, it actually happened.

And you know what else? Approximately 1 ½ seconds after the final buzzer sounded, I got a call (on my bulky early 2000’s cell phone) from my buddy Ben, thanking me for telling him to stay away from Duke. As always, listen to AT.

So this year, who are the teams to worry about? The following clubs shoot under 67 percent from the line as a team: Alabama State, St. Peter’s, Long Island, Texas, Hampton, USC, Syracuse, North Carolina, Florida State, Old Dominion, Washington, Louisville, Florida and Cincinnati.

(One caveat to using this rule: Make sure that when you’re looking at free throw percentage, it’s actually the entire team that’s lousy at shooting them, as opposed to one guy who’s bringing their percentage down.

Let me give you an example. As a team, Texas shoots just 65 percent. Lousy, right? Well not exactly.

You see, that number is a bit skewed by the fact that Tristan Thompson shoots just 48 percent and Dogus Balbay 57 percent. That alone is the main reason why in crunch-time Balbay turns into a spectator, just like you or I (As for Thompson, well he’s still on the floor a bit too much for my taste. Which probably again proves my theory, “I’m not sure Rick Barnes knows what he’s doing!”)

So what’s the point on the Longhorns? Well, it’s that of the guys who will be on the court late, J’Covan Brown (82 percent), Jordan Hamilton (78 percent) and Corey Joseph (70 percent), are all competent, and all will likely have the ball in their hands. Yes the team free throw percentage is bad. But not necessarily the guys who will be taking the important free throws.

Remember the old saying: There are lies, damn lies and statistics. When it comes to Texas’ foul shooting, I think we’ve got a case of all three.)

Of course on the opposite end, remember that Wisconsin is No. 1 in the country in free throw shooting at 82 percent as a team. Incredibly, four of their starters shoot at least 80 percent from the line. Of course that didn’t seem to make much of a difference in the Big Ten Tournament. But it’s still worth keeping your eye on.

Rule No. 4: Having A Dominant Low Post Scorer Is Overrated

What is this, 1984? To me, this is the single most overrated thing in college basketball right now. Having a stud scorer in the low post is obviously good. But much like the pair of shoes your wife just charged to your AmEx, not necessary.

Let’s look at a few previous seasons as an example. Last year Duke won the title despite a frontcourt that featuring the goofy and inexperienced Plumlee combo, and Brian Zoubek, whose offensive game would likely best be described as “abominable” (Then again, you could say the same thing about his beard). There wasn’t a single guy that had a true low post move on that roster (Well other than dunking and then yelling at no one in particular).

But that’s the thing. Duke proved that while you do need big bodies to defend the rim, rebound and commit an occasion hard foul, you don’t necessarily need points from them. The Blue Devils had little low post scoring last year, and looking back, it was the same with Kansas in 2008 as well. Even in 2009 when North Carolina won the title, it’s easy to forget that while all the talk was about Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson was actually their most important player, and Wayne Ellington who was Final Four MVP.

Speaking of which…

Rule No. 5: Great Guard Play Is What Ultimately Wins In March

Does anyone besides me remember that ’09 tournament? How North Carolina was the overwhelming favorite all year, Ty Lawson tweaked his ankle in the ACC Tournament and everyone thought the sky was falling heading into the NCAA’s? Again, as much as that was “Tyler Hansbrough’s team,” Lawson was the key to everything they did.

Well looking at other years too, guards are the great constant. Jon Scheyer was the heart and soul of Duke last year, and Nolan Smith stepped up when they needed him to. In 2008, Kansas’ four best guys- Mario Chalmers, Brandon Rush, Sherron Collins and Russell Robinson- were all on the perimeter. And oh by the way, you remember who Kansas beat that year? It was Memphis, with some guy named Derrick Rose.

And really, this year is no different. Who are the guys we’re talking about coming into the tournament? Nolan Smith, Jimmer and Kemba, right? Even Jared Sullinger (probably the best big guy in the sport right now), can’t do it alone. Where would he be without veterans Jon Dieber, David Light and William Buford extending the floor, and making it impossible to double-team him? Same with the Morris’ at Kansas. They’re great low post guys. But because each can play on the perimeter as well, it adds a whole new dynamic to their roster, and makes it impossible for teams to clog the paint.

Big men are important, I won’t deny that. But name me one big guy who has succeeded without a really good guard to get him the ball in position to score. I don’t think you can…

Rule No. 6: Don’t Stress About Conference Tournament Results

Simply put, I’m not a big believer in conference tournaments as an indicator of NCAA success. Never have been, never will be.

Truth be told, there are just too many other factors that come into play in conference tournaments. In no particular order, some are: Who you’re playing; their sense of urgency; are you healthy or trying to get guys rest; are you coming off a bye and your opponent isn’t; are you tired from playing too much; does your opponent just know you too well from conference play?

As a matter of fact, familiarity is the biggest variable in why I don’t take conference tournaments seriously. Think of it like the SEC in college football. We watch those teams beat up on each other all year long, and then they go to bowl games and crush teams from the other conferences. Nobody is surprised anymore when a 7-5 SEC school beats a 9-3 Big Ten one, and we always end up saying stuff like, “XYZ school just wasn’t ready for the speed of the SEC.” And it’s the same in basketball.

You think it’ll be easy for some team who has never faced Syracuse’s 2-3 zone to matchup for the first time? Of course not. How about the quickness of Kemba Walker? Or the defensive intensity of San Diego State? The speed of Louisville. Whoever gets those teams won't stand nearly as good a chance of beating them as a familiar conference foe would. It's just true.

Just remember, North Carolina won the 2009 NCAA title without winning their conference tournament. Michigan State has made two straight Final Fours without a Big Ten Tournament title. So if you like Pitt, Notre Dame, BYU or some other club that slipped up during Championship Week, take them! Conference Tourneys just not as big a deal as you’d think.

Rule No. 7: Don’t Try To Pick The Upsets

This is the single biggest beginners mistake. It’s what got me hooked in 1995 when I was the only one who picked Manhattan over Oklahoma in my dad’s office pool, and what led to my downfall each and every year until I wised up in 2003 or so.

Because here’s the thing: Say you pick Akron to upset Notre in Round 1. I’m not saying you will, or you should. But again, say you do and it actually happens. Great pick! And to your credit, you’ll be a hero for one day, get some pats on the back, and maybe a wink from Laura the slightly pudgy receptionist, whose Match.com profile secretly got e-mailed around the office. Then everyone moves on, and everyone forgets about it when Akron loses in the next round. By Monday, Laura won’t even make eye contact with you.

But what if you pick Akron, and Notre Dame beats them? And what if Notre Dame keeps winning? You’re screwed since you’ll be losing points (assuming that your pool awards points for every game won as a way to determine a winner) for all the rounds that Notre Dame continues to win and you don’t have them. For the one point you might get for picking Akron, you might lose 15 if Notre Dame ends up in the Elite Eight. The risk just doesn’t outweigh the reward.

Rule No. 8: If You Are Going To Pick The Upsets, Make Damn Sure They’re Going To Lose In The Second Round

Again, it’s about accumulating points. So if you do want to try and pick an upset, it better be a team that can’t make a run past the second round.

Some 2010 examples of teams which are probably ok to select as First Round upset victims: Wisconsin (Even if they get Belmont, is there any way they’re advancing past the second round?), St. John’s (Totally conceivable they lose to Gonzaga, even if they don’t, they likely will to BYU) and Georgetown (I know Chris Wright is coming back, but have you seen them lately?).

At the same time, I’d stay away from UConn, Louisville, San Diego State, Purdue and a few others. Even if you really believe in your gut they’re going to get upset, is it worth the risk?

Finally and most importantly, just have some fun.

The NCAA Tournament is the best sporting event on the planet for a reason. It brings together friends and family, boyfriends and girlfriends, co-workers and strangers, all with the goal of beating them, and winning some bracket cash.

Good luck, and enjoy!