| 17 March 2011
I could bore you with some clever intro, but I won’t. This article already ran way longer than I expected it to.
Let's look at the bracket. How do I see things going down?
It's time to investigate...
East:
Quick Breakdown: For the second year in a row, the NCAA Tournament committee handed the No. 1 overall seed maybe the toughest bracket in the tournament. It happened last year when Kansas was grouped with Ohio State and Georgetown, and again this time around with the Buckeyes getting a brutal draw.
And you know the irony of all this is? Ohio State Athletic Director Gene Smith is the head of the Tournament Committee. Gene, my man, help your boys out! Then again, with everything that’s going on at Ohio State with Tressel-gate 2011, one has to wonder if Smith and his crew put more than 10 minutes into the actual seeding and selection of this field. From the looks of things, I’m not so sure.
Anyway, back to the bracket, where a lot of people are probably wondering, Aaron, is this really the toughest draw? What about what Duke’s got going on West?
Well, here’s the thing. The West absolutely, positively has the toughest top five seeds. I’m not arguing that. What I am arguing however, is that from say, seeds No. 1 through No. 10, I absolutely, positively think the Buckeyes have the toughest draw. The West may be more top heavy, but to steal a line from my buddy Ryan McNeill (who stole the line from Jersey Shore), the East is full of way more “grenades,” and “landmines.”
Go ahead and look at the bracket again. No. 4 seed Kentucky just won the SEC title. No. 5 seed West Virginia is coming off a Final Four berth. No. 6 Xavier is stacked. No. 7 Washington just won the Pac-10. Hell, how about the fact that No. 8 George Mason has lost a grand total of one game in the last two months! Or that the No. 9 Villanova was ranked in the Top 20 for almost the entire year!
This bracket is loaded.
Upset Potential: With so many quality teams, the only first round upset I even see the potential for is No. 12 Clemson over No. 5 West Virginia. And with that said, even that one is a bit tough to picture, if only because Clemson finished their play-in game around midnight Tuesday, and will be tipping this one off at noon Thursday. What a tough turnaround. But gun to my head, that’s the one I’d take.
As for the second round, well, that’s where it gets interesting. Let’s start with my first bold prediction: Xavier beats Syracuse.
Why, you ask? Well, to me, Syracuse is a lot like the show It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia. Honestly, I just don’t see what all the fuss is about.
The biggest argument for the Orange is that they won five straight games to close the regular season. Which is great, it really is. Well at least until you break down that five game winning streak.
It started with a home win over West Virginia (whatever) and continued with an overtime win over Rutgers, which would be nice if this were women’s basketball and not men’s. They followed that up with back-to-back victories over Georgetown and Villanova, two clubs that were playing their absolute worst basketball at the time Syracuse got them. Then the Orange closed with a victory over DePaul. Look at those five games again. I’m supposed to be impressed by that?
As for Xavier, well, there’s just something compelling about them. Not only are they talented. Not only are they well-coached. But I promise you they won’t be afraid. As I mentioned in my column on Monday, along with Michigan State they’re the only two teams to make the Sweet 16 in each of the last three years. To me that means something. Not only does Xavier have the skill, but they have the experience and confidence to back it up.
Also, don’t be surprised if Washington beats North Carolina. I’m not saying it will happen, if only because the game is in Charlotte. But if I were a betting man, I’d take the Huskies and the points in the second round.
Who’s Gonna Win And How It’s Gonna To Go Down: Ohio State wins the region, but it won’t be easy. They’re going to get a veteran, experienced and angry George Mason team in the second round, and very likely a young and super-talented Kentucky club in the Sweet 16. Again, Gene Smith, come on man! Help your boys out!
As for the other side of the bracket, I think I just talked myself into Washington over North Carolina. As I’ve been saying all week, something just didn’t seem right about Carolina in that ACC Tournament. It seemed like they were relishing the regular season win over Duke a little too much, and floating around aimlessly, kind of like a new bride does for a few weeks after her wedding. Most importantly, I just don’t think they realize the urgency you need to play with in a one and done situation. After going to the Sweet 16 last year, Washington does. Give me the Huskies in that second round game.
From there, we’ll have an all Ohio Elite Eight, with Xavier and Ohio State battling it out, and Ohio State taking home the East.
Southwest:
Quick Recap: There’s not really much to talk about here.
After getting the No. 1 overall seed in last year’s tournament and proceeding to fall apart like a contestant on Celebrity Rehab, Kansas is back, and with a much more manageable bracket this time around. They should cruise into the Sweet 16, where- for my money- the toughest test on their road to the Final Four awaits in Louisville. Much more on that coming.
On the other side of the draw, you’ve got Notre Dame and Purdue as the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds, which ultimately is about as exciting as a bachelor party in Dubuque, IA.
This draw opens up very nicely for Kansas.
Upset Potential: Depending on what your definition of an “upset,” is, I’m pretty comfortable in taking Florida State over Texas A&M. Simply put, neither team scores much, and the Seminoles play better defense (They’re actually No. 1 in the country defensive field goal percentage). First one to 50 wins, and I think it’s the No. 10 seed Seminoles.
After that, I just don’t see much. I had Richmond on my radar as a potential upset team, but this is a bad draw for them. Vanderbilt is just a better ball-club, and after getting upset in the first round last year, I have to assume the Commodores will show up with a bit more urgency. Also, they should be able to control the boards with their size down low.
The Spiders could beat a lot of teams in this spot. I’m just not sure Vanderbilt is one of them.
Who’s Gonna Win, And How It’s Gonna Down: I already said it, but I think that a Louisville-Kansas matchup in the Sweet 16 could very be the most entertaining game of the entire tournament, regardless of who goes on to win a title. For my money, the winner of this game goes to the Final Four.
And since I picked Kansas to win the title on Monday, it would be a little crass of me to back off it now. Still, Louisville is a fascinating team, and maybe the scariest kind to matchup with. The Cardinals just play so fast and make so many three’s, that they’re never out of any game. Remember that in their Big East Tournament semifinal win, they were down 14 to Notre Dame at halftime before coming storming back for the win. The scary thing is, that’s what they’ve been doing all year.
On the other side of the draw, as a Big East guy I’m rooting for Notre Dame, but I’m thinking Purdue wins. The one thing that’s concerned me all year about the Irish, is that when you really get into them defensively, you can disrupt their offensive flow. And Purdue sure can play defense. Even without Kelsey Barlow, I think the Boilermakers get to the Elite Eight, before getting crushed by Kansas.
Southeast:
Quick Breakdown: I guess what you need to know about this bracket, is that if Pitt doesn’t make the Final Four, they’ve got no one to blame but themselves. The Southeast is home to the weakest No. 2, the weakest No. 4 and a No. 3 seed which is a shell of what it was three weeks ago.
The path for Pitt to the Final Four is clear (except an early round game I’ll break down in a minute). Whether they navigate their way there is another story.
Upset Potential: Grab yourself a warm glass of milk and a blanket, because we may be here awhile. Where do I even begin?
I guess I’ll start at the top where, point blank, I think Utah State beats Kansas State.
Look, I love how Frank Martin has turned things around after their season turned into a grease-fire around the new year, but other than Jacob Pullen, I still don’t trust anyone offensively on this roster. And with Kansas State going against Utah State, one of only two teams in college basketball that ranked in the Top 10 nationally in both few points allowed and field goal percentage defense (Interestingly, the other was Alabama), I smell trouble for the Wildcats. Utah State wins an ugly one, but wins it none the less.
In the rest of the bracket, I’m not as excited about Belmont as most. Being completely honest, I don’t know a ton about the Bruins, but I do know that they thrive on defensive pressure and turning the other team over. The problem is, Wisconsin had the fewest turnovers of any team in the country this year. As a general rule, I don’t like backing teams who scored 33 points in their last game (just a company policy), but this is a good matchup for Wisconsin. Give me the Badgers.
As for everyone else, the more I think about it, the more I like Gonzaga over St. John’s. To their credit, the Zags have been a completely different team since they inserted David Stockton into their starting lineup, and I really don’t know what to make of St. John’s without D.J. Kennedy.
And finally, there’s our old pals, the Michigan State Spartans at No. 10. I hope they lose to UCLA about as much as I’ve ever hoped for anything (Well except for that sweet 10-speed Huffy when I was 10. Thanks Mom!). I just don’t think they will.
So other than the No. 5, No. 6 and No. 7 seeds losing, I think everything else plays out as planned (Could you sense a bit of sarcasm there?)
Who’s Gonna Win, And How It’s Gonna Go Down: With all the middle seeds losing at some point, I think the bracket, opens up nicely for the top two seeds. Kinda, sorta.
For Pitt, I think their second round matchup might actually be tougher than their Sweet 16 game. I’m assuming they get Old Dominion, and if they do…watch out. Old Dominion beat Clemson, Richmond and Xavier out of conference, has won nine in a row, and won a first round game against Notre Dame last year. If they’re not the definition of a “trap,” team, well, I don’t know what is.
On the other side of the draw, I want to take Michigan State over Florida, but I just can’t. I saw nothing from the Spartans all year that made me think they should even be in this tournament, let alone someone who’ll make it to the second weekend. And while we’re here, I love the, “Once again Tom Izzo has his team peaking in March,” comments I hear coming from every direction. Wait, why is that exactly? Because they won one game in the Big Ten Tournament against Purdue? Didn’t they almost lose to Iowa the day before? Puh-leeze. For “as well,” as Tom Izzo has them playing, ESPN.com tells me they’ve lost three of their last six. Where I come from, that’s not all that impressive.
In the regionals, I actually like Pitt over Utah State and Florida over BYU. For the record, I love, love, LOVE BYU, and in a lot of spots would’ve taken them here. But if we learned anything from that Mountain West Championship Game, it’s that they just can’t handle size without Brandon Davies. And as much as I loathe Florida, they do have plenty of size.
Independently, I’m not all that crazy about Pitt or Florida (As a matter of fact, someone get me a brown bag, because I just got sick to my stomach filling them out as winners in my bracket). But in the context of this region, I’ve got them meeting in the Elite Eight, where Pitt will pull out the victory and go to the first Final Four under Jamie Dixon.
West:
Quick Breakdown: All you really need to know is that this region has the toughest No. 1-5 seeds. And honestly, it’s not even close.
We all know about Duke, who of course just got 979 percent more interesting with the news that Kyrie Irving might be coming back to play in the tournament (Much more on that coming). No. 2 seed San Diego State is a matchup nightmare, even if I kinda, sorta wonder about their offensive aptitude. UConn is the three seed, and we all know what they’ve done in the last week. Texas is the No. 8 team in the country, yet a No. 4 seed. Go figure. And Arizona has some guy named Derrick Williams who will be a rich fella in the NBA this time next year (Assuming they’re playing games).
Again, this region stacked.
Upset Potential: Missouri is too good to be an 11 seed and Cincinnati isn’t good enough to be a six seed. Call it an upset if you want. I call a decent basketball team beating an inferior one.
After that is where things get interesting. I’ve been keeping my eye out for Oakland ever since they had Pitt on the ropes early in last year’s tournament, before evenutally losing their first round game. From there the Golden Grizzlies made me look smart, beating Tennessee at Tennessee, playing a bunch of Big Ten teams tough in the preseason, and ripping off wins in 19 of 20 games to close the season. I was sure they’d pull a first round upset. Then they drew Texas.
Do I think they can beat the Longhorns? I do. Texas has been up and down like a Bernie Madoff stock these last few weeks, and if recent tournament history is any indication, luck isn’t on the Longhorns side. Nobody routinely has his teams less prepared for the tournament than Rick Barnes does.
Still, the thing Oakland had going for them that most other mid-majors don’t, is a legitimate seven footer, with legitimate basketball skill. His name is Keith Benson, and he’s coming to an NBA arena near you soon. The problem is, Texas is one of the few teams in the country that can throw multiple big bodies at him. Tristan Thompson. Gary Johnson. Matt Hill. Alexis Wangmene. You name it. The Longhorns are just about the worst possible draw Oakland could’ve gotten.
I’m not confident in saying this, but give me the Longhorns. I want to take the Golden Grizzlies really, really bad. I just can’t.
Who’s Gonna Win And How It’s Gonna Go Down: Let’s start with the basics: I’ve got the four top seeds into the Sweet 16. Duke vs. Texas and San Diego State against UConn.
Let’s start with the second matchup first, where as soon as I saw this draw for UConn on Sunday night, I knew they were in trouble. As good as the Huskies have been this year, the one thing they don’t match up with well is size. Other than Alex Oriahki, they’ve really got no one in the post. As a matter of fact I’d like to put out an APB for Charles Okwandu, someone who was last seen contributing three months ago in a 40 point over Vermont. If you have details on Okwandu’s disappearance, please contact the UConn athletics department.
In all seriousness though, UConn is a deceptive team in the size and rebounding department. The Huskies rank in the Top 10 nationally in rebounding, a number which is totally skewed because Kemba Walker and Jeremy Lamb are such good rebounders for their size. Unfortunately, they don’t really have anyone to help Oriahki out against really big, physical teams. UConn’s rebounding numbers prove the old theory, “There are lies, damn lies and statistics.” Going against the Aztecs massive front court, I think they get crushed. Bad. Thanks for the memories Kemba!
On the other side of the bracket, I’m really torn up about this Kyrie Irving thing. Let me start with the obvious and say that Duke is a better team with him on the floor than without him. Look, I may be dumb, but I’m not stupid, and anyone saying he shouldn’t play is an idiot. But with that said…
I’m a little less bullish on Irving coming back than most. Yes he’ll be the best player on the court whenever he plays, and may have been the best player in the country before he got injured. But Duke is in a pretty nice groove right now with Nolan Smith handling the ball. Even if Irving is only playing 15-20 minutes a game, how does that affect everything else? Can he play off the ball? At this point can Nolan Smith play off the ball? What about everyone else having to re-define their roles? Irving is an amazing talent. But I’m just not sure bringing him back at this point in the season, with this much on the line, with this little practice, is the right move.
So with that, I’m going to go way out on a ledge and say that Texas beats them. The one thing that the Blue Devils have struggled with all year is athletic teams that really get out after you and guard defensively. Well Texas will do that. And if Irving still isn’t 100 percent, I question how much he can help.
Give me Texas over San Diego State in the Elite Eight.
By the way, can I tell you how terrifying it is to pick a team to go to the Final Four that you could easily see losing in the first round? It doesn’t leave me feeling very good.
For the length of space, and since you’ve got to get back to work, here are my Final Four and championship picks:
Final Four:
Ohio State over Texas
Kansas over Pitt
Championship Game:
Kansas over Ohio State
I don’t feel great about my picks, but I do feel great about one thing: This tournament is just hours from starting!
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