| 01 April 2011
One of the most underrated parts of having a wildly unpredictable Final Four, is how tough it makes it on us writers. Wait, I’m supposed to have an opinion on Saturday’s games? Geez! Doesn’t anyone ever think of us anymore?
Honestly, I’ve never been more torn heading into a Final Four weekend, in large part because I would’ve never guessed in a million years that any of these four teams would be here. I watched UConn all season, and gave up on them as actual contenders sometime in mid-February. As I explained in my column Monday, I just never saw “it,” with Kentucky, at least not until super-late in the season. In regards to Butler, well, I would’ve been less surprised seeing the UConn women’s team playing in Houston Saturday night than these guys. And VCU…forget about it. I couldn’t even spell VCU three weeks ago. Although in my defense, the spelling is tougher than it looks.
Yet incredibly, here we are, with one of these four teams’ just 72-ish hours away from taking home a national title. Only in America. Only in March.
Here’s who I think will be playing for the title Monday.
VCU vs. Butler: Saturday, 6:09 p.m.
To any Butler or VCU fans who may have stumbled across this site, I want to start with an apology. The breadth and depth of this preview won’t come close to what I’m about to spit out on UConn-Kentucky later. So, I’m sorry. Although really, I probably shouldn’t be writing about this game at all. Quite frankly, I’m about as qualified to talk about these two teams, as I am to discuss 15th century renaissance art, or the keys to a successful relationship. In other words, I actually have no qualification at all.
What I will say though, is that this game will ultimately come down to tempo. Whoever dictates it, will win.
Starting with VCU, it’ll be interesting to see how they handle Butler’s, slow and methodical pace. Looking back at this tournament for the Rams, when teams have wanted to run with them, VCU has blown them out of the building, Georgetown and Kansas in specific. As for everyone else, well, once Purdue fell down early, they had no choice but to run with VCU, and while USC was successful at slowing things down, they didn’t have nearly enough offensive firepower to keep things interesting. Really, Florida State was the only team able to slow down VCU, and not coincidentally, the Seminoles played them tougher than anyone in the tournament. Well on Saturday, not only does Butler want to keep this game in the 60’s, they will keep this game in the 60’s.
And actually, that’s where I don’t think Brad Stevens gets enough credit as a coach. Sure we fawn over him for plenty, whether it's for his tournament poise, big game chops, or the fact that he looks like the 16-year-old who works at your local movie theater. But we never give him credit for how well his players execute the game-plan, and force the other team to play their style.
To prove my point, I’ll take something that I wrote about last year’s Butler run and use it this year, because I think it’s important. What’s most impressive about Butler getting to a second straight Final Four, is that they’ve had to beat every kind of team to get there. They’ve beaten one’s who play fast (Florida) and slow (Wisconsin). One’s who are physical in the paint (Old Dominion) and physical on the perimeter (Pitt). Teams which rely on athleticism (Florida) and more on smarts (Wisconsin). Some that live by the three (Wisconsin) and others which barely shoot any (Pitt). And much like their coach, nothing has rattled them along the way. All they do is win, win, win.
And I think they do it again Saturday.
One more thing as well. The biggest concern for VCU entering this game, has to be that they’ve gotten crushed on the boards all tournament long. Looking at the numbers, it’s really staggering. VCU has been outrebounded by an incredible 180 to 144 margin over their five games in the tournament, which comes out to minus 36 overall, and by an average of 8.8 a game. If you take out their “First Four,” win over USC, (where they actually outrebounded the Trojans by six), the Rams rebounding margin is minus 42 overall, and they’re getting outrebounded by over 10 boards per game. The fact that they’re still standing isn’t just staggering, it’s inconceivable.
Of course the reason that VCU has been able to keep winning is because of their three-point shooting. They’re 43 percent in the tournament, and 45 percent overall if you take out that
first, hideous USC game.
Well, Butler allows opponents to shoot just 32.5 percent from three, and with Matt Howard, Andrew Smith and Khyle Marshall down low, I firmly believe they’ll be able to crush VCU on the boards as well.
Simply put, if VCU gets outrebounded by 10 to Butler, they will lose. Which is exactly what I expect to happen.
Incredibly, Butler will be playing for their second straight title Monday night.
Kentucky vs. UConn: Saturday, 8:49 p.m.
Let’s start from the beginning, and by completely debunking the most important myth this week: There is nothing to take out of the game that these two played in Maui in November. Each team couldn’t be any more different today than they were five months ago, and while it’s a fun talking point, it’s ultimately irrelevant.
Starting with UConn, you all know their narrative by now. In November, it was Kemba Walker’s team, Kemba Walker’s island, and Kemba Walker’s week. Now obviously guys like Jeremy Lamb, Shabazz Napier and Niels Giffey, had some role in Maui. But I’m not so sure Jim Calhoun couldn’t have picked up a couple stoned surfers off the beach, plopped them into the lineup, and got the same results. Kemba was just that good. For the most part, everyone else (except maybe Alex Oriahki) were simply nameless, faceless, interchangeable extras on the Kemba Walker Show, happy to come along for the ride.
But as I’ve mentioned multiple times since, it was because of Walker’s heroics early that allowed the rest of the team to get their sea legs sometime around the middle of January. Again, UConn doesn’t win the title in Maui without Lamb, Napier, Roscoe Smith and whoever else contributing some. But that doesn’t mean they’re the same players they are now. Not even close.
Same with Kentucky. Looking at that box score for the Wildcats is a lot like looking at your old high school yearbook picture…you just want to laugh. Things couldn’t be any more different.
Starting with Brandon Knight, whatever he was that day, he isn’t now. Knight is cool, confident and a stone-cold killer, especially in this tournament. While the numbers don’t tell the complete story on him, he’s a million times better than he was in November, just like UConn’s Jeremy Lamb and Shabazz Napier are too. Still, the most important reason for Kentucky’s success recently isn’t Knight’s scoring; it’s how he’s taking care of the ball. Knight had 18 turnovers over the three games in Maui (including five against UConn), but only 14 in four NCAA Tournament games this March. Believe me, that's no small deal.
As for the rest of the team, well, Terrence Jones was Kentucky’s high scorer that night with 24 points, and now he’s to a large degree, an afterthought for the Wildcats (he hasn’t scored 20+ since February 12). Then again, that’s not necessarily a bad thing, as Josh Harrellson, DeAndre Liggins and Darius Miller are all more involved. As a matter of fact, if there’s one word to describe the evolution of both teams this year, I think it’d be “balanced.”
Speaking of Harrellson, I’ve got to ask, why aren’t more people talking about this kid’s story? The guy scored a total of 22 points in all of the 2010 season, yet scored 17 in the Elite Eight alone. Maybe it’s because of his goofy nickname (Jorts) or because of his dad’s camouflage hat, I don’t know, but Harrellson isn’t nearly getting the publicity he deserves. As one Kentucky fan told me earlier this week, “A treadmill has never treated anyone better.”
And really, I think he could be a key to this game. If Kentucky establishes him early, I just don’t think UConn has anyone who can handle him one-on-one. Alex Oriahki is prone to foul trouble, and because of that I don’t think Calhoun will start him on Harrellson. And if that means Charles Okwandu gets the call defensively, Harrellson could have a double-double by halftime. I’m not kidding.
For UConn, I believe their key offensively is different than what most people expect me to say, and that’s, that I think someone besides Kemba Walker needs to carry the offense early. My biggest fear is that Kemba tries to do too much, forces a few bad shots, and Kentucky gets a few easy three’s or dunks, and gets the crowd in Reliant Stadium going early. On offense, UConn needs to execute in the half-court, and much like playing on the road in an NFL playoff game, take the crowd out of it.
As for their defense, I think this is where it gets interesting. To me, the key for UConn is Shabazz Napier.
The truth is, that for all the heroics Knight has had in this NCAA Tournament, he wasn’t all that good against Ohio State, especially when Aaron Craft was guarding him. Yes Knight hit the game-winner over Craft, but he also finished just 3 for 10 from the field against the Buckeyes, and 1 for 6 from three, with six turnovers.
Well, I’ve seen both Ohio State and UConn a lot this year, and truth be told, Napier is a better defender than Craft is. I know that sounds like blasphemy to a lot of people, and I will admit that fundamentally, Craft is the better pure defender. But based on quickness, and pure instinct, I’ll take Napier. And remember too, if Napier can come in and take the pressure off Walker to guard Knight, that will only help Kemba have fresh legs on the offensive end too.
Speaking of Kemba and the offense, I’m not as concerned as most that Kentucky’s best defender DeAndre Liggins is guarding him. Now understand, that’s no disrespect to Liggins, who’s done a hell of a job this tournament on the defensive end, most notably on North Carolina’s Harrison Barnes.
Still, I don’t think Liggins size and length will be as much of a factor as most do. For one, San Diego State tried to do the same thing, essentially rotating a bunch of bigger, longer and more athletic guys on Walker all game long. And we all saw what happened there, as Kemba ripped off 36 points, including 14 in a row in the second half.
And actually, I think that unlike what people tried to do with Jimmer Fredette this year, putting bigger guys on Kemba is actually beneficial to him.
It allows Walker to use his favorite move, that quick, herky-jerky jab step, where he gets into the lane, fakes his shot, and gets fouled. I’ve seen him do it a million times, against a million different kind of defenders. And having watched every UConn game this year, I know that the big, physical guys aren’t actually the ones who give him problems. It’s the small quick guys, like Peyton Siva from Louisville, or even- as crazy as this sounds- Ben Hansbrough from Notre Dame. The ones that are low to the ground and in his grill give him problem. The bigger ones he just goes right around, or in some cases, right through.
Finally, I don’t think the “home-court,” advantage that Kentucky will have is much of a big deal either. UConn is an incredible 12-0 on neutral courts this year, and to a degree, I think they actually like the stage. It didn’t affect them last week when they basically played two road games against San Diego State or Arizona in Anaheim, the latter of which my buddy Mark (who was at the game), called “The craziest sporting event,” he’s ever been to. And believe me, this guy has been to a sporting event or two in his life.
In the end, there’s no way the score of this game is anything like the 84-67 final in Maui five months ago, but the result is the same.
UConn and Butler will play for the title Monday.
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