| 24 March 2010
"I'm not here to talk about the past."
The famous words of Mark McGwire. He spoke them as he stood in front of Congress a few years back, trying to beg, borrow and steal his way out of steroid accusations.
I'm not here to talk about the past.
Well Big Mac, after last weekend's NCAA Tournament, I know how you feel buddy.
I came into last weekend brimming with confidence, like Tiger Woods on the 18th hole at Augusta- or in the VIP room of Scores, whichever you prefer- about this year's NCAA Tournament. Never had I seen more games and known more about the teams participating. This was the year I would own my NCAA Tournament pools. It wasn't if I was going to win them, but what the final margin would be.
Well, needless to say, I'm licking my wounds right now. I ended up with a grand total of half of this weekend's Sweet 16 picked correctly, with my National Champion (Kansas), and another Final Four team (Villanova) joining me on the couch to watch this weekend's games. Not exactly the opening two rounds I was hoping for.
But I haven't lost hope. And like McGwire, I'm not here to talk about the past. Which is why it's time for me to roll out my new predictions on this weekend's games, predictions I'm itching to share with you.
So sit back, relax and enjoy my retroactive NCAA Tournament picks, as well as some fun-facts I'll be be throwing in along the way.
And oh, if you're a gambling man (or woman), now would be the time to bet heavily against everything I'm about to tell you...
East Region:
Quick Recap: Boy this Calipari guy sure can coach. Boy that Huggins guy can too. Oh boy, can those Cornell kids sure can shoot three's. And my, oh my, that Washington team...umm...well, what do we know about them again?
Interesting Storylines Heading Into The Weekend: How can you possibly fit so many interesting storylines into just three games, and 120 minutes of basketball?
In no particular order, here are a few: John Calipari going for his first National Championship; Bob Huggins going for his first National Championship; Kentucky- college basketball's most tradition rich program- going for their first title in 12 years; John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins trying to prove that beauty does come before age... at least in college basketball; the Cornell Big Red, a team which has 13 players all living together in one house (No, I'm serious. I just want to know why this was never considered for a reality TV show?); this Yahoo.com article by David Fox, explaining how two of Cornell's best players- Jeff Foote and Louis Dale- had to convince the coaching staff to take a chance on them, rather than the other way around; and oh, by the way, Washington's best player Isaiah Thomas got his first name after his father- a huge Lakers fan- lost a bet to a Pistons fan. I wish I was kidding.
I told you there were a lot of interesting storylines!
A Retroactive "Who's Gonna Win, and How's It Gonna Go Down:"
Well, I picked West Virginia over Kentucky coming into the tournament, so I've got to stick with it right? Wrong, give me Kentucky (What's that? Don't you dare judge me, this is my article!).
Before I get into this pick, let me explain something. Whenever I fill out a bracket, I always choose my National Champion based on whichever team is the most talented. Modern history backs me up on that.
Only this year, I mistakenly talked myself into believing Kansas was the most talented team in the tournament, when in reality it is Kentucky (You know, considering they've got four first round NBA Draft picks on their roster). Stupid, stupid AT!
And, as good of a storyline as Cornell (and their frat house like living conditions) are, they just can't match up physically or athletically with Kentucky. Temple and Wisconsin? Sure. But not the Wildcats.
The only way I see the Big Red even being able to keep this one close, is to take the air out of the ball, try to keep the game low scoring, and let the home crowd (This game is in Syracuse, roughly 15 miles from the Cornell campus) get behind them. Unfortunately, fans don't win games, players do, and Kentucky's got better one's.
Onto the other game, where I'm not really sure what to make of Washington.
Random side question: Do you ever watch your favorite team, and maybe they come out a little flat in the first half of a game, and then pick it up in the second half and win going away? Well that was Washington's whole season. They were flat as a pancake from November 1 to March 1. And now all of a sudden they look like the Harlem Globetrotters. I'm not really sure what gives.
Even still, I like West Virginia. It's one thing to beat up on Marquette and New Mexico like Washington did last weekend, but it's quite another to beat up on a team with the size and length of the Mountaineers. West Virginia controls the boards and the paint in this game and wins.
In the final Saturday, again, I've got to believe talent wins out. I'm going against my original pick and am taking Kentucky. Nobody has their team prepared at this time of year like Calipari does. Nobody. Give me the 'Cats to advance.
South Region:
Quick Recap: I've got a question for you. In my NCAA Tournament preview last Wednesday, this is what I said about a potential second round game between Villanova and St. Mary's:
Believe it or not, I actually think Villanova’s first weekend might be tougher than the second. They’ve got a feisty Robert Morris team in the first round (that played in the tournament last year), and then gets the winner of Richmond and St. Mary’s if they advance, which I promise is no picnic in the park. St. Mary’s in specific has the one thing that will give Villanova problems, a legitimate center who can score, Omar Samhan.
No seriously I said that, go ahead and click the link. But here's the question: Should I get any credit for making that statement, a statement which pretty much turned out to be 100 percent correct? Or should I be ridiculed for not actually picking it in my pools? I feel like Ryan Seacrest on American Idol when I say this, but the vote is up to you America.
Anyway, other than that, this one was all chalk, as the No. 1 (Duke), No. 3 (Baylor) and No. 4 Purdue) seeds advanced.
Interesting Storylines Heading Into the Weekend: Umm, nothing super interesting here, unless you consider Baylor playing in their first ever Sweet 16 interesting; Or St. Mary's already winning more tournament games this year (two), than they had in the rest of their program's history (one); Or possibly Purdue- a team built to win a National Championship this year- getting to a Final Four without their best player, Robbie Hummel; Or maybe the continuing debate about what planet Duke forward Kyle Singler came from exactly.
But again, other than that stuff, not much interesting at all.
A Retroactive "Who's Gonna Win and How It's Gonna Go Down:" Hmm, well, I still stand by the fact that had Villanova beaten St. Mary's they would have blitzed through the rest of this region. Of course since Corey Fisher and Scottie Reynolds decided to turn into two-handed set shooters last weekend instead of 21st century point guards, we'll never know (The two combined to shoot 5 for 24 from the field, and only attempted five free throws. I guarantee you that somewhere Jay Wright is watching that game film in the dark with a glass of whiskey in his hands).
However, now that Villanova's gone, this time around I like Baylor (Using hindsight is fun, isn't it?).
As much as I enjoy St. Mary's (and believe me, I have all year), Baylor just has too much length on the perimeter and down low. Those good looks from beyond the 3-point line St. Mary's got against Villanova's 6'4 "power forwards," will be much harder to come by against Baylor. And I'd be willing to bet the mortgage that I don't have, that Samhan doesn't get 30 against the Bears. Maybe 20, but not 30.
On the other side of the bracket, I think Duke wins a close one. Purdue being here is a good story and I'm happy for them. But I watched both their games last weekend, and they easily could have lost each. The road has to end sometime, and I'm thinking it's here.
In the regional finals, expect much the same for the Bears. Too much length, too much interior defense, too much Baylor. That's right, the Bears are going to the Final Four.
Midwest Region:
Quick Recap: Remember when we were calling this the bracket of death? Well it was only deadly to the teams we thought were the best, No. 1 Kansas and No. 3 Georgetown. Shows what we knew.
What we're left with is four supremely well coached teams, all of which could win.
Interesting Storylines Heading Into the Weekend: To steal a line from my favorite character (Barney), from one of my favorite TV shows (How I Met Your Mother): Havvvvve ya met Northern Iowa?
Like Cornell, they're a rag-tag group that was overlooked by basically everyone. Then fate brought them together in Cedar Falls, and into our hearts last weekend. Cue the mushy music, Disney needs to make a movie about these guys ASAP.
As for everybody else, well let's start at Michigan State, where Tom Izzo is one of the two or three best coaches in college basketball. Period. I watched his team all year and they couldn't get out of their own way. And now they're in the Sweet 16 again. Without their best player. Go figure.
At Tennessee Bruce Pearl is having his best season too, and the Vols are looking to get to their first Elite Eight in program history.
And ohh, by the way this Thad Matta guy at Ohio State can coach too. Did you know that he's been a head coach now 10 years, at three different schools (Butler, Xavier and Ohio State), and he's won 20 games in each of those seasons? Here's a list of guys who haven't been able to win at least 20 games the last 10 years: Roy Williams, Jim Calhoun, Ben Howland, Rick Pitino and Gary Williams. Just to name a few.
A Retroactive "Who's Gonna Win, and How It's Gonna Go Down:" Well I had Kansas over Georgetown in this spot, meaning that I probably shouldn't be allowed to fill out a bracket for at least three years as punishment (I'd also like to thank Zippo for providing the official lighter fluid that I used to burn my 2010 NCAA Tournament bracket. Thanks Zippo!).
Anyway, I'm going out on a limb, and taking Northern Iowa to win this region. Go ahead and call me crazy... Or just dumb. Whichever you'd prefer.
I just think that the things that Northern Iowa does well: Playing great defense (No. 2 in the country in points allowed), limiting turnovers (No. 10 in the country in fewest per game) and making their foul shots (76 percent as a team, No. 7 in the country), translates to beating anybody. Think about that, you play great defense, make your foul shots and don't turn the ball over. You're going to be in every game you play, right? I also think that those traits are enough to get them by Michigan State without Kalin Lucas (Again though, I've given up on trying to figure out Tom Izzo coached teams. I clearly know nothing).
In the other side of the bracket, I like Tennessee over Ohio State.
For one, reading about Tennessee, they feel like they've been slighted all year. Not only do they not get enough credit for beating Kentucky and Kansas during the regular season, but they've actually been discredited for only beating Ohio in last weekend's second round. Yep, that same Ohio team that beat Georgetown two nights before. Go figure.
When you factor in the disrespect that Tennessee is feeling with the fact that Ohio State hasn't been playing well these last few weeks, give me the Vols in a close one.
In the final, I'm going to go with my gut and take Northern Iowa in this one. Again, the game will be nothing if not close. And if it's close, why not take the team that doesn't turn the ball over and makes their foul shots? Also, unlike Cornell and St. Mary's, Northern Iowa actually matches up pretty well with either Tennessee or Ohio State. Neither team is particularly big, meaning (gulp), it'll be Northern Iowa that actually has the size advantage.
Don't call Northern Iowa "another George Mason." I watched that George Mason team and this one is better. And they're going to the Final Four.
West Region:
Quick Recap: We knew Syracuse was pretty good and they proved it. Same with Kansas State. Butler damn near gave their fans a heart attack, but pulled out a victory against Murray State that should have never been that close. And Xavier, well, they beat two teams that I didn't think were very good to begin with, Minnesota and Pittsburgh. So here we are folks. Welcome to Salt Lake City.
Interesting Storylines Heading Into the Weekend: Not nearly as many as the other regions.
For Syracuse, I can think of only two: When is Arinze Onuaku coming back (Shocker, I know), and are we watching Wes Johnson turn into a superstar? His 31 points and 14 rebounds Sunday says he just might be.
At Butler, I've got nothing interesting, really. Will Gordon Hayward become the guy with the lightest skin pigment ever to make a Final Four? I'm stretching here. Same with Xavier.
And at Kansas State, well, I just want to know if Frank Martin can get through this tournament without killing one of his players. That's it.
A Retroactive "Who's Gonna Win and How It's Gonna Go Down:"
Well, well, I picked Syracuse over Kansas State at the start of the tournament, and as crazy as it sounds, I'm gonna stick with it. Shocking, I know.
Truthfully, I watched Butler last weekend, and I just don't see how they match up with the Orange. Murray State didn't play a guy bigger than 6'9, and Butler still struggled to score down low. How are they going to fare against Johnson, Rick Jackson and Kris Joseph? Not well would be my guess.
On the other end of the bracket, Xavier played Kansas State earlier in the year and lost by 15 points, setting up a not so exciting rematch. I know Xavier is better now than they were then (Believe me, I saw them. They're way better). But it just seems like Kansas State has way more depth and size, and we'll probably see much the same on Thursday.
Finally that leaves us with Kansas State and Syracuse, and I'm sticking with what I said since the start of the tournament: Kansas State just isn't built to beat great teams. Good one's, sure. But not the best.
They do everything well but nothing great, are well coached and don't make mistakes. Meaning, they're built to beat the Missouri's and Colorado's of the world, and even the BYU's and Xavier's. But not the Syracuse's. And if you don't believe me on this one, look back at what happened the three times they played Kansas this year. Loss...Loss...Loss..
They're not built to beat Syracuse and they won't.
The Orange are headed to the Final Four.
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