| 24 March 2011
I know I say this around the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament every year, but… I’m not here to talk about the past. Or at least not about my bracket.
Once again, it's a disaster.
Yes, I may have had Pitt in the Final Four. And sure I may have believed that things would be different with Texas and Notre Dame this year, and that Purdue wasn’t some offensive albatross, but in fact a team that could advance deep in the tournament. And no, I didn't see VCU or Richmond coming. But just like I used to say to say to my ex-girlfriend all the time, “I was wrong.” There, are you happy? Kidding.
But despite taking it on the chin last weekend, that doesn’t mean that I’m afraid to make picks for this weekend’s games. Quite the opposite actually.
Now, will they have more merit by the end of this weekend than my previous picks? If my track record is any indication, I’d say not.
Still, let’s have some fun, starting with…
East Region:
Quick Recap: Boy is Ohio State good. Boy is North Carolina lucky. Boy is Kentucky scary. And boyyyyyyyy did I warn you about Syracuse. I’ve been saying for two months that the Orange just weren’t that good, and they proved it by losing last Sunday. And to my credit (let me take some credit, would ya?) I actually picked that game correctly… well sort of, since I had Syracuse losing in the second round. Just to Xavier. Wait, do I get partial credit for that?
Some Interesting Storylines Heading Into The Weekend: There are definitely a few juicy ones, with Kentucky and Ohio State playing the marquee, “Game that everyone wants to either be at or see or see on TV,” of the entire Thursday and Friday schedule. Of course the funny thing is, with all the Tressel-drama swirling around Columbus right now, I’m not really sure whose fans actually care more about this game. Even with lowered expectations, my hunch is probably Kentucky’s.
On the other side of the bracket, you’ve got Buzz Williams’ group of rag-tag nobodies, against a North Carolina squad that has more NBA talent right now than the Sacramento Kings. Just do me a favor, and please don’t buy too much of Buzz’s sob story. Based on what I saw this past weekend, I actually think Marquette might be the better team right now.
A Retroactive “Who’s Gonna Win, And How It’s Gonna Go Down”: To their credit, Kentucky seems to be getting better each and every time they step on the court. Saturday’s first half against West Virginia was the best I’ve seen Brandon Knight play all year, and the second half is the best I’ve seen the Wildcats play as a team all year. Their passing was crisp. They made open shots. And the repeated camera shots of Josh Harrellson’s dad provided the best comic relief of the tournament so far. Overall, it’s been a good showing so far for Big Blue Nation.
Yet I can’t help but think that the Wildcats are running into a buzz saw against Ohio State. Truth be told, I could sit here and give you a million facts and figures about just how dominant the Buckeyes were in their opening round games against Texas-San Antonio and George Mason. But really, why bother? You watched the games just like I did, and I suspect you saw the same thing I did too. Mainly that Ohio State is playing at a different level than everyone else right now. Or at least they were last weekend. I expect this to be close for about 28 minutes, before the experience of Ohio State pulls away.
As for the other game on Friday, well, I think Marquette beats North Carolina. Call me stupid if you please (No, seriously, it’s ok. I’ve heard much worse). Just hear me out.
Essentially, I expect Marquette to do a lot of what Miami and Clemson did when they almost upset North Carolina in the ACC Tournament a few weeks ago. The Golden Eagles are going to slow things down, pack the paint, and say to the Tar Heels, “Sorry guys, but we’re not letting you get any fast break buckets, and we’re not letting Kendall Marshall get into the lane. Not today. If you’re going to beat us, you better start making some three’s.” And I don’t think they will.
Now to Carolina’s credit, they did look a lot better last weekend than they did in the ACC Tournament. But remember, both LIU and Washington wanted to play the same way the Tar Heels did: Fast. Marquette won’t.
As for Sunday, with a trip to the Final Four on the line, I’ll take Ohio State over Marquette. The Buckeyes can beat you with any style, any tempo and with any lineup. They’re just playing too well right now.
Southeast Region:
Quick Recap: God Damn Pitt. That’s all I’ve got. I again trusted the Panthers, and they again lost in a way that was so horrifying, even Alfred Hitchcock would’ve been freaked out watching.
And really, because I have no life, I’ve spent the last few days trying to think of the perfect analogy for Pitt basketball. After a lot of deep thought, I think I’ve got it.
Having lived in the Northeast most of my life, we always spend the entire month of November and December waiting and dreading the first snowfall of the year. Yet regardless of when the snow hits, and how long we’ve been bracing for it, we’re never prepared, it always catches us off-guard and it definitely leaves everyone in a funk for awhile.
Well that’s Pitt basketball. You spend months and months preparing for their collapse, but when it finally does happen, you’re just never quite ready. And it leaves you a funk for months on end.
Oh by the way, other than Pitt, this region played out as expected, with No. 2 seed Florida, No. 3 BYU and No. 4 Wisconsin all advancing.
Some Interesting Storylines Heading Into The Weekend: There’s just one really, and that’s: “Jimmer hits the Big Easy!”
(By the way, I always get a bit uneasy whenever a party city like New Orleans, Miami or San Diego hosts an NCAA Tournament regional. Put unsupervised college kids 
those cities, and I always feel like there’s a chance I could wake to the headline like, “Star player X gets arrested for urinating off a rooftop bar at 3 a.m. His status for Thursday’s game is unknown,” that will send my bracket and picks up in smoke. Along with old age, spiders and Joan Rivers, that is my biggest fear in life.
Which is why I love the BYU Cougars so damn much. When BYU hits the town you never have to worry about crap like that, and chances are if somebody does miss curfew, it’s because they were helping an old lady get her cat out of a tree or something. Otherwise everybody’s tucked in bed by 9:30 with a warm glass of milk on their nightstand. Man do I love these guys.)
Anyway, back to what I was saying about Jimmer. I thought CBS Sports college basketball writer Gary Parrish summed up this regional best, when I heard him say, “Kentucky-Ohio State is the game that everyone wants to see. But Jimmer is the show. And I’m excited to be headed to New Orleans for the show.”
I couldn’t agree more.
Now can someone pass me the warm milk?!
A Retroactive, “Who’s Gonna Win, And How It’s Gonna Go Down”: Well, if my original Pitt over Florida pick proves anything it’s that, yes, I am an idiot. Hope that clarified things.
Anyway, we’ve got two interesting matchups, starting with Butler and Wisconsin.
Honestly, I’m not sure how to pick this game. All year I thought Wisconsin was better than people gave them credit for, knew they were better than people gave them credit for, and still picked them to lose in the second round of the tournament. Then again, they did score 33 points in a regulation basketball game recently. So really, who could blame me?
At the same time, do I really have the cojones to pick against Butler? The Bulldogs are 7-1 in the NCAA Tournament in the past 13 months, and if I didn’t already like Brad Stevens enough, his new glasses make him look smarter (and more mature) than he already in last year’s tourney run. I’m convinced that those glasses alone were the difference in the Butler win last weekend.
As for this weekend, I guess I’ll go with Wisconsin.
Let’s start with the facts here, and let me start by saying that Butler deserved to beat Pittsburgh last Saturday. Understand I’m not taking away anything from the Bulldogs.
Still, Butler wouldn’t have won that game if they didn’t go bonkers from 3-point land in the first half, and really, I just can’t see them doing that again. As a team, Butler averaged just seven made three-pointers per game this season, yet hit eight in the first half alone against Pitt, and 12 for the game. I just don’t see that happening again.
On the other side of the bracket, let me start by apologizing. Florida fans, I’m sorry. I’m sorry for doubting your team all year. I’m sorry for secretly making Erving Walker jokes behind his back. And I’m sorry for wondering out loud if Charlie Weis’ 86-inch waistline would be the biggest spring storyline out of Gainesville this year. I was wrong. You’ve got a good team. Billy Donovan can coach. And just to show some contrition, I’m even going to sacrifice a live goat before Thursday night’s game. Just to get rid of all the evil spirits.
So with that said, let’s get to this game, and let me start by being totally transparent, and saying that I want BYU to win. Nothing personal Gator fans, but there’s just something about this team I can’t resist. I’m even willing to abstain from sex if that’s what it takes to get BYU to the Final Four. I like this team that much.
The problem is of course, that Florida is just a terrible matchup for the Cougars. Erving Walker should be able to beat the BYU guards off the dribble with his quickness, and the Gators bigs, are, well, much bigger than BYU’s. Remember, the one thing that got lost in the Cougars win over Gonzaga Saturday, was that they were actually outrebounded by 11, and won by such a comfortable margin only because they made 14 three-pointers. Well, much like Butler, BYU just isn’t going to hit that many again in this game. Not against a Florida team that was in the top 35 nationally in three-point percentage defense.
Jimmer I love you. BYU I’m rooting for you. But as much as I hope I’m wrong, I just don’t have a good feeling about this game. Florida by 10.
As for the final, I’ll take Florida over Wisconsin Saturday. The Gators have too much size and athleticism.
All the Charlie Weis talk will have to wait another few weeks.
Southwest Region:
Quick Recap: Who likes double-digit seeds? Anyone? Well too bad, because after many experts questioned Notre Dame, Purdue, Louisville and Vanderbilt all year, they each proved the doubters correct, and choked their way out of the tournament last weekend.
What we’re left with is an interesting draw for No. 1 seed Kansas. The Jayhawks have a yellow brick road to the Final Four, with only No. 12 seed Richmond, and the winner of a 10/11 Florida State-VCU matchup standing between them and Houston.
Hey Bill Self, no pressure!
Some Interesting Storylines Heading Into The Weekend: What I just said is the best storyline there is: Nobody has more pressure on them to win this weekend than Kansas. Not even Ohio State.
Beyond Kansas, you could go in a few different directions.
How about Richmond becoming the new hub of college basketball, with the city producing the same number of Sweet 16 teams (Richmond and VCU) as the Big East (UConn and Marquette) and Big Ten (Wisconsin and Ohio State). Or that Florida State is here, despite getting basically no contribution from their best player (Chris Singleton) all tournament. Or that with every VCU win, Shaka Smart adds another zero to his next paycheck, whether it’s at VCU or somewhere else.
But other than that, nothing too exciting going on here.
A Retroactive “Who’s Gonna Win And How It’s Gonna Go Down”: I picked Kansas to win the title a week ago, and even though they haven’t looked great, I’ve got to stick with it, right? Because ultimately, what kind of fake sports writer am I, if I can’t keep my word?
As for who Kansas will play, I’m thinking Florida State.
Speaking of the Seminoles, if you wonder why basketball analysts repeatedly use the word “length,” in describing a team, go ahead and re-watch a tape of that Florida State-Notre Dame game. The Seminoles length was the difference, especially on defense. They jumped passing lanes, blocked shots, and basically just made Notre Dame’s night a living hell. I never expected to see that Fighting Irish team quit in this tournament, but that’s exactly what they did. Watching the Irish play the Seminoles, was like watching a high school JV team scrimmage the varsity. It was no contest.
Well for the same reasons that Florida State gave Notre Dame problems, I think they do the same to VCU. The Rams aren’t going to be able to get out and run against the Seminoles, and points in the half court just aren’t going to come as easily.
In the regional finals, it’s going to be sloppy and ugly, but I’ll take Kansas in a low scoring game. The Jayhawks play just as well defensively as Florida State, and are way better on the offensive end. It’s really that simple.
Rock. Chalk. Jayhawk.
West Region:
Quick Recap: Welcome to the wild, wild West.
From a pure uniqueness standpoint, there isn’t much to report. Three of the top four seeds advanced, with Duke surviving a second round scare, San Diego State winning the ugliest game in recorded college basketball history against Temple, and the Kemba Walker express rolling through the first weekend relatively untested. Only Texas wasn’t able to make it to Anaheim amongst the top four seeds, and based on Rick Barnes’ tournament track record, is anyone surprised by that?
Some Interesting Storylines Heading Into The Weekend: This region has more juicy subplots than a bad mid-day soap opera. Where to begin?
How about with Kyrie Irving’s toe? How about the question, “Where Kyrie Irving fits in with the rest of this Duke team?” How about whether San Diego State can get to a Final Four, after having never won an NCAA Tournament game before last week? How about Coach K and Jim Calhoun continuing a three decade old rivalry that’s seen classic games played in 1990, 1999 and 2004? How about Arizona…well, no one actually thinks Arizona can win this region? Do they?
A Retroactive “Who’s Gonna Win And How It’s Gonna Go Down”: Coming into the tournament, I had San Diego State beating UConn in the Sweet 16. But I’ve got to admit that after watching both teams last weekend, I’m really not sure.
But despite that previously mentioned hideous, unwatchable, unbearable, disgusting San Diego State-Temple game, I still kinda sorta think the Aztecs have a nice matchup edge over the Huskies.
For one, I think the pressure is squarely off of San Diego State right now. They made it to the second weekend, and I don’t think most people nationally really expect them to beat UConn. I don’t know whether that’s because of East Coast bias, big conference bias, Kemba Walker bias, or a combination of the three, but despite being the higher seed, it seems like most casual fans think the Huskies will win. I’m not saying that’s fair, just the perception. And I think the Aztecs will be able to use that to their advantage.
Really though, I expect this one to play out a lot like I mentioned before with Marquette-UNC. UConn struggled all year when teams slowed things down, packed the paint and made them settle for outside jumpers. And that’s exactly what I expect the Aztecs to do. Plus, as crazy as this sounds, San Diego State might actually be the biggest team UConn has faced all year. Look for them to control the boards along with tempo, which is a bad combination for UConn.
On the other side I see no reason to think that Duke won’t roll. Yes I know they struggled the other day against Michigan, but really it means little to me. If Arizona couldn’t stop J’Covan Brown from getting anywhere on the court he wanted to, what chance do they have against Kyrie Irving and Nolan Smith? None from what I can tell.
In the final eight, well, I think San Diego State can win, but I just don’t see it. Duke has better guards, and doesn’t have the same disadvantage in the paint that UConn does. Plus, they’ve got that championship swagger.
Duke to the Final Four.
Enjoy the games, and I’ll be back next week!
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