So look, I’m sure sometimes you guys read my work and think to yourselves, “This guy’s a lunatic. Sports are his life. Honestly, it all seems a bit unhealthy at this point.” And you know what, you’re totally right (In a related story, ladies, I'm single!).

But it hasn’t always been this way, I swear. You see I grew up as a relatively normal kid. Sure I liked sports, but no more than I liked riding bikes, watching Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, pulling girls hair (Ok, I may still do that), eating rocks, whatever. You know all the stuff normal kids do.

Then the 1995 NCAA Tournament changed my life. It was my first adventure into the world of the office pool. And as a young, whipper-snapping AT, I turned that thing on its head, when I shocked my dad’s entire office and picked Fran Fraschilla’s Manhattan Jaspers to beat Kelvin Sampson’s Oklahoma Sooners. I was on top of the world that day. Even a week’s worth of ice cream couldn’t have made me happier.

Well, flash-forward 15 years, and while I’ve had some tournament successes, I’m like a junkie still looking for the rush that I got that March day all these years ago. But as they say in sports, it’s always easier to get on top of the mountain than it is to stay there.

Either way, through the years I’ve tinkered with a system for filling out my March Madness brackets, and while still a work in progress, I am here to share them with you.

These rules apply to any standard NCAA Tournament pool that awards points for each win, with point values going higher per round (For example, a Round 1 win gets you one point, a Round 2 win two points etc.) with the highest point total at the end of the tournament winning the whole thing. And if that’s not how your pool is run, well good luck regardless. And oh, by the way, go back to whatever Communist-block country you came from.

So with that, here are my personal rules. Follow them, and you'll almost certainly do well in your office pool, if not win it all. As for me, well, I’ll be trying my best to regain the lofty status I held in my dad’s office a decade and a half ago. Where's Fran Fraschilla when you need him?

Rule No. 1: Talent Almost Always Wins Out

You know all that talk about how to win in the NCAA Tournament you need to have a senior point guard, or veteran coach or superstar big man, whatever? Well all of it is non-sense. You know what you actually need? Better players than everyone else. Call me crazy, I know.

To show you what I mean, let’s use the last few years as a sample size, and compare the team that was considered the most talented “on paper” to who actually won the championship that year:

2009:

Most Talented Team: North Carolina
Who won the Championship: North Carolina

2008:

Most Talented Team: Kansas (I’d argue)
Who won the Championship: Kansas

2007:

Most Talented Team: Florida
Who won the Championship: Florida

2006:

Most Talented Team: UConn (Slowly dropping my head in shame)
Who won the Championship: Florida

2005:

Most Talented Team: North Carolina
Who won the Championship: North Carolina

2004:

Most Talented Team: UConn
Who won the Championship: UConn

Anybody sensing a trend here?

And beyond that, look at those teams again. They really didn’t have that much in common.

Kansas won in 2008 when their four best players might have all been guards. Florida won two titles with two great big men. North Carolina didn’t win their conference tournament last year. In 2004 UConn wasn’t even a No. 1 seed.

But the underlying common trait that they all had was talent. Real, tangible, NBA-level talent. You can’t teach it, and if it’s firing on all cylinders, you can’t matchup against it if the other team has it and you don’t.

That’s why Kansas and Kentucky are favored this year.

Although, speaking of Kentucky, remember Rule No. 2…

Rule No. 2: Experience Matters

My favorite saying goes a little something like this: Juniors and seniors win championships, not freshmen and sophomores (Actually my favorite saying is, “How much for a dance.” But that’s another story for another day).

Anyway, that’s why I’m nervous about Kentucky. Look, they pass the “talent test,” in Rule No. 1 with flying colors. But remember it’s one thing to play a tight game in mid-February, and it’s quite another to be playing that same tight game a month later, where if you lose you go home.

Remember that North Carolina team that rolled through the tournament last year, crushing the competition like Napoleon’s army? They did it with five starters that were either juniors or seniors. And two years before as freshmen and sophomores, they choked away an Elite Eight game against Georgetown, where they had a huge lead with just minutes to go.

How about that Kansas team from 2008? Well, they too got upset in the first round of the 2006 tournament, when their whole team was freshmen and sophomores.

Now I’m hardly saying Kentucky can’t win it all this year. Just that history tells me to probably stay away.

Rule No. 3: Your Ball-Handlers Have Got To Be Able To Make Foul Shots

To this day, my favorite NCAA Tournament story goes as follows.

It was 2002, Duke was the defending National Champion, and guard Jay Williams was everyone’s All-American (and I assure you, a huge hit with the ladies as well). Duke looked unstoppable. They were everyone’s pick. But I warned folks to stay away, that Williams- their primary ball-handler- was a notoriously lousy foul shooter. Unfortunately, just like in my interactions with girls in the dating scene, nobody really listened to your old buddy AT.

Anyway, fast-forward to the Sweet 16 that year. Duke is down by four late to Indiana, when Williams catches the ball…nails a three…and gets fouled! The arena was going crazy. All Williams had to do was make his foul shot and we were headed to overtime. He stepped to the line, and…

Clank.

Indiana rebounds, makes their foul shots and wins. Duke’s season was over. Look it up, it actually happened.

And you know what else? Approximately 1 ½ seconds after the final buzzer sounded, I got a call (on my bulky early 2000’s cell phone), from my buddy Ben, thanking me for telling him to stay away from Duke. As always, listen to AT.

So this year, who are the teams to worry about?

San Diego State, Texas, Old Dominion, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest and Clemson all shoot under 67 percent as a team. West Virginia isn’t much better at 69.6 percent. And BYU leads the country, shooting close to 80 percent as a team. Don’t say you weren’t warned.

(One caveat to using this rule: Make sure that when looking at free throw percentage, it’s actually the entire team that’s lousy at shooting them, as opposed to one guy who’s bringing their percentage down.

Let me give you an example. As a team, Syracuse shoots just 67 percent. Lousy, right? Well not exactly.

You see, anyone who would be taking free throws down the stretch for the Orange- aka their ball-handlers- can make them: Andy Rautins shoots 81 percent, Wes Johnson shoots 78 percent and Scoop Jardine 74 percent.

Of course on the opposite end, Arinze Onuaku only shoots 43 percent, bringing his whole team’s percentage down. Think he’ll even be in the game when Syracuse needs to make foul shots at the end of games? Me neither.)

Rule No. 4: Having A Dominant Big Man Is Overrated

What is this, 1984? All the good big guys leave college after a year or two, and anyone who’s still in the game beyond that probably isn’t any good.

Look at the four No. 1 seeds this year: Syracuse and Duke don’t have a single low post player that anyone would call dominant. Kansas has Cole Aldrich, who might dominate on defense, but hardly on offense. And Kentucky has DeMarcus Cousins, who can be dominant, but hardly needs to be for the Wildcats to win (Ever hear of that John Wall guy?).

Yet, with that said, while big men are overrated…

Rule No. 5: Great Guard Play Is What Ultimately Wins In March

Does anyone besides me remember North Carolina last year? Because for all the chatter about the Tar Heels being “Tyler Hansbrough’s team,” you know what we were actually talking about as the tournament kicked off? The health of Ty Lawson’s ankle. Not to mention that Wayne Ellington ended up as the Final Four MVP.

In 2008, who was Kansas’ best big man? Darrell Arthur maybe, but who cares. Their four best players- Mario Chalmers, Brandon Rush, Russell Robinson and Sherron Collins- were all guards. They beat a Memphis team led by Derrick Rose (guard) and Chris Douglas-Roberts (guard). Again, anyone sensing a trend here?

A dominant big guy may have won you a title in 1980 or even 1990, but college basketball is a guard’s game in 2010.

Rule No. 6: Don’t Stress About Conference Tournament Results

Want a fun fact? No? Well too bad, I’m going to give it to you anyway.

Of last year’s Final Four teams, exactly ZERO of them won their conference tournaments.

And here’s why. When you play in these tournaments, everyone knows you in and out. Your strengths, your weaknesses, tendencies, whatever. It’s like playing your brother in one-on-one. Even if he’s older or better, you’re eventually going to get him. You just know his game too well.

It’s the same in these conference tournaments. Take the Villanova-Marquette Big East quarterfinal this year. Do I think Marquette is actually better than Nova? Probably not. But they’ve also played six times in the 15 months. Is it any surprised that they finally got a win in the Big East Tournament this year? Of course not.

Think of it like the SEC in college football. We watch those teams beat up on each other all year long, and then they go to bowl games and crush teams from the other conferences. Nobody is surprised anymore when a 7-5 SEC school beats a 9-3 Big 10 one, and we always end up saying stuff like, “XYZ school just wasn’t ready for the speed of the SEC.” And it’s the same in basketball.

You think it’ll be easy for some team who has never faced Syracuse’s 2-3 to matchup for the first time? Of course not. How about the quickness of Villanova’s guards? Or the defensive intensity of Kansas? Or the length of Georgetown?

Again, don’t stress about the conference tournaments. I may have just implimented this rule on the fly, but I think it’s a keeper.

Rule No. 7: Don’t Try To Pick The Upsets

This is the single biggest beginners mistake. It’s what got me hooked in 1995, and what led to my downfall each and every year until I wised up in 2003 or so.

Because here’s the thing: Say you pick Robert Morris to upset Villanova in Round 1, and it actually happens. Great. You’re a hero for one day, and then everyone moves on, and more than likely Robert Morris loses in the next round.

But what if you pick Robert Morris, and Villanova beats them? And what if Villanova keeps winning? You’re screwed, because you’re losing points (assuming that your pool awards points for every game won as a way to determine a winner) for all the rounds that Villanova continues to win and you don’t have them. For the one point you might get for picking Robert Morris, you might lose 15 if Villanova goes to the Elite Eight or beyond.

Look, I know it’s tempting to go for the home run, but in the early rounds, you just want to be a singles hitter. Just keep getting wins and tallying points, because as you come down the home stretch every single one of them matters.

We all know the guy who complains because he was “this close,” to calling an upset before it happened, then ends up setting his bracket on fire by the end of the first weekend.

Don’t be that guy. Play it safe.

Rule No. 8: If You Are Going To Pick The Upsets, Make Damn Sure They’re Going To Lose In The Second Round

Again, it’s about accumulating points. So if you do want to try and pick an upset, it better be a team that can’t make a run past the second round.

Some 2010 examples of teams which are probably ok to select as First Round upset victims: Pittsburgh (Couldn’t you totally see them losing to Xavier?), Purdue (No way they’re a Sweet 16 team without Robbie Hummel), Michigan State (If they got graded for team chemistry, it’d be an F-).

Some 2010 teams to stay away from, because they could very well make a deep run: Baylor, Villanova, Georgetown and Ohio State.



So there you go. There are my eight simple rules for filling out your NCAA Tournament office pool. As for my picks, you'll have to check back tomorrow, when I reveal them.

Now if you'll excuse me, I've got to go. Fran Fraschilla hasn't been returning my calls all day and it's really starting to piss me off.

(Love the article? Hate it? Let Aaron know by commenting below, or e-mailing him at This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it . Also for all his sports on all things sports, including all his opinions leading up and during this 2010 NCAA Tournament, be sure to follow him on Twitter @Aaron_Torres)

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