| 11 February 2011
On Thursday, we looked at the first group on these Power Rankings, the one's we labeled as the "Pretenders." The good teams, but not the great ones. The ones who might play into the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament, but have no chance of getting to the Final Four. To read those Power Rankings in their entirety, please click here.
Today it's time to look at the real contenders, teams that could conceviably win it all in March.
However, before we get to those teams, we have to start with one team that doesn't belong...
Should’ve Been On Yesterday’s List:
UConn: The crappy thing about posting these rankings in mid-week (instead of at the beginning) is that you’re always running the risk that something so egregious happens, that it makes you completely re-evaluate how you feel about a team. Unfortunately, that’s happened with UConn.
Heading into the week, I still felt pretty confident that when push came to shove, this was a good team. Say what you want about the recent two game skid against Louisville and Syracuse, those are both NCAA Tournament teams. Plus the rest of UConn’s resume doesn’t lie. The Huskies have more quality wins than anyone in college basketball. I’m not even talking about Texas or Kentucky, as much as some of the smaller victories like Marquette on the road or Tennessee at home. Eventually they all add up.
The problem is that not only did UConn get beat by St. John’s on Thursday night, they got beat so badly that it completely made me re-evaluate how I feel about them. Yes they’d lost in the past, but they’d never been run off the court. They’d never been embarrassed. They’d never quit. All three things happened Thursday night. And that’s my biggest point of contention with this team. You can fix struggles on offense. You can’t fix struggles with effort (And yes, I just pulled out my ‘Cliché Coach Speak Handbook.’ How’d I do?)
Anyway, this list is about fairness and reality, and I can’t give anyone a pass, not even my own team.
Yesterday I listed the “Pretenders,” and today the “Contenders.” And right now UConn is the former, not the latter.
Now, let’s get to the fun…
Final Four Contenders:
Notre Dame: These guys are like Wisconsin… if everyone on Wisconsin used Victor Conte as their personal trainer, and drank four cups of coffee before every game. Notre Dame is talented, experienced (five senior starters) and more athletic than people give them credit for. And I’ll be honest, it all caught me by surprise.
As recently as about three weeks ago, I thought this was the same old Notre Dame team they are every year. You know, the, “We can beat anybody at home, and lose to anyone on the road, and when push comes to shove we’re going to win between 21 and 23 games, and eventually lose to some school you’ve never heard of in the NCAA Tournament.” That’s been Notre Dame of the last 3-4 years. But, I’ve got a newsflash for you, that’s not who the Irish are now.
What Notre Dame is, is a supremely talented team that does everything well, nothing terrible and never beats themselves. Just for the sake of fun, I looked a few things up, and here’s what I found: They’re in the top 50 nationally in points per game (45th), assists (17th) and free throw percentage (49th), and on the flip side, they’re 337th nationally turnovers. In other words, they don’t beat themselves. And even when they Irish aren’t at their best, or are playing a physically/athletically superior team (see Louisville Wednesday), they play smart enough where they’re never out of any game.
I’m not saying that Notre Dame i the second most talented team in the Big East (other than Pitt). Honestly, that might be the next team on the list. But right now, you can't deny what the Irish are doing. These guys are legit.
Georgetown: Yes, I’m back on the Georgetown bandwagon, just a month after nearly losing my life in a near-tragic fall jumping off of it. Luckily, both the Hoyas and I have recovered nicely.
Here’s why I like this team so much: Coming into the year, I think we all agreed that this team was only going to go as far its guards took them. At the same time, I think we all wondered if their big guys had the chops to hang in there every night in the Big East. With me so far? Good.
Except the thing is, when Georgetown struggled earlier this year, it was actually because of their guards, not their big guys. I don’t have a ton of stats to back that up, but just as an example, in their three game losing streak earlier this year, Austin Freeman averaged under 10 points per game. He has averaged over 18 in all other games this year. Since that losing streak though, Freeman and the other guards are playing well, and the Hoyas enter the weekend having won seven in a row. Which is basically like a 37 game win streak in any other conference.
While we’re here, I don’t think the Hoyas get nearly enough credit for their depth too. If you remember last year, this was a team that played just six or seven guys. This year, guys like Nate Lubick, Vee Sanford and Jerrelle Benimon provide enough depth and quality minutes during the early parts of the game where guys like Freeman, Chris Wright and others are fresh at the end.
This is slowly turning into a scary, scary team.
BYU: What’s that? Yes I’m saying that I BYU can make the Final Four. In basketball, yes.
Just do me a favor and watch the Cougars closely, because they’re not just the Jimmer Fredette show. Jackson Emery is a wildly underrated athlete and defender and Noah Hartstock and Brandon Davies are solid down low.
Like the rest of these teams, I’m not saying that BYU is a lock to make a deep run this March. But I wouldn’t bet against it either.
I Need To See What These Guys Look Like In A Month:
Pitt: My buddy Brian has a gambling problem. To steal a line from Two and a Half Men, if “There’s a monkey throwing a coconut against a tree somewhere in Africa,” Brian probably has action on it. I half expect him to call me from a pay phone begging for money one of these days, after he's lost all his on the Women’s Final Four. I wish I was kidding.
So what does Brian have to do with Pitt? Well on Monday he texted me about seven minutes before Pitt tipped off at West Virginia, and asked me what I thought about the line. My quick reaction was, “On the road, against their biggest rival, without their best player, I’d take West Virginia.”
Luckily, Brian has gambled with me before, so he was smart enough to take the Panthers. Still, that one interaction tells you everything you need to know about Pitt under Jamie Dixon: When their best player goes down, the next guy just steps in. They’re as well-oiled as Dixon’s hair.
Monday was just the latest example. Ashton Gibbs was hurt, and honestly, it didn’t matter. Brad Wanamaker took over the ball-handling duties, Travon Woodall stepped into the starting lineup, they set the oven at 500 degrees, and 40 minutes later out popped a victory. Name me one other team that could’ve pulled off a road win like that without their best player. I don’t know if you can.
Still, I want to see when and how Gibbs returns before I throw Pitt into the National Championship discussion. I happen to think that this is the best team in the Big East, and maybe the best team Dixon has ever had. But could they beat a Texas, Ohio State or Duke without Gibbs back, and playing at 100 precent? That I don’t know.
National Championship Contenders:
Duke: The Blue Devils are the opposite of UConn, in that, because of their win against North Carolina on Wednesday night, I had to completely re-write this section of the article. Thanks for nothing Nolan Smith.
Actually, I take that back.
Thank you Nolan Smith. Thank you for giving us the best single performance we’ve seen all year from anyone not named “Jimmer Fredette against San Diego State.” Thanks for keying the best comeback of the year. And most importantly, thank you for getting Seth Curry actively involved, and causing the cameras to cut to his mom at least 15 times (Which nearly caused a riot with me and my buddies). Again, thank you.
And it’s because of Smith that I’m ready to throw Duke back in the National Championship discussion. I didn’t think they were there before Wednesday, in large part because I thought they’d reverted back to their form of 3-4 years ago. You know those Duke teams. The ones who took way too many three’s, didn’t get nearly enough from their post players and could be beaten by any athletic team which could run, jump or simply dump the ball into the paint for easy points.
But what Smith showed me Wednesday, is that along with Fredette, we’ve got to throw him into the discussion of “X team is never out of any game because of X player.” Smith did it all Wednesday. He made three’s with a hand in his face, got to the rim at will, and when he had to pass, got everyone else involved too. Then again, what do you expect from a guy who is leading the ACC in points and assists? Still it’s one thing to do it on some random Saturday afternoon against NC State, but quite another to do it against your biggest rival, when the world is watching.
Basically, what you need to know is, I’m not betting against Smith or Duke.
Texas: What amazes me most about this Texas team is the transformation they’ve undergone within the last 12 months. Right around this time last year, the Longhorns were falling apart faster than the last 10 minutes of an episode of Family Guy, and for the most part, it seemed to bother everyone…except the guys on the team. Texas’ chemistry was so toxic that FEMA practically had to come in and label Austin a Hazardous Waste Zone.
Well this year, they’re a completely different team. Texas plays hard on defense, everybody makes the extra pass, and as crazy as it sounds, they all seem to like each other. Right now, they might be my favorite team in college basketball to watch.
So what caused the change in dynamic? I’ve got three theories:
1. Dogus Balbay and Gary Johnson: Two seniors, two roles players, two guys who care about their minutes as much as I care about the result of last week’s LPGA golf tournament. Leadership starts at the top, and these guys are the definition of leaders.
2. Corey Joseph and Tristan Thompson: Even more impressive than Balbay and Johnson, because these are two freshmen, two high school All-American’s, and two guys who’ve probably never had to defer to anyone. Yet all they’ve done this year is deferred. Deferred minutes, deferred shots, and deferred stats, all for the sake of winning. How many freshmen playing for NBA contracts can you say that about?
3. Jordan Hamilton: Last year he was the cold-hearted “I gotta get mine,” gunner off the bench. This year he’s “getting his,” but it’s all completely within the flow of the offense. Nobody in college basketball has matured more than Hamilton has.
Add those three factors together and you’ve got what I consider the “scariest,” team in college basketball. Ohio State might have the best starting five. Kansas might be the most efficient. But Texas has the most quality guys that can give you quality minutes.
And you know what? Talent wins out more than anything come tournament time.
Kansas: I know, I know, I get sucked in by the Jayhawks every year. And every year they leave me out in the cold, feeling used, like a sorority girl making the walk of shame on a Saturday morning.
Still, I can only go on what I see this year and Kansas is playing better than any team in the country right now.
On offense, I can’t remember seeing anything quite like them. As things stand, Kansas is No. 1 in the country in field goal percentage, and No. 2 in assists, making them literal poetry in motion when they have the ball. Plus, since that Texas loss, they’re definitely playing with a chip on their shoulder, having won their last five games by an average of 17 points per (And by the way, that number is definitely skewed, since one of those wins was by just four points at Colorado. Believe me, I watched that game. The close margin had nothing to do with Kansas, and everything to do with the Buffaloes playing their best game of the season).
And while we’re here, can I just say that Bill Self might be the most underrated coach in the country. It sounds crazy, but honestly, I think that too often he gets thought of only as a great “recruiter,” rather than a great “coach.” It’s been that way ever since he brought Dee Brown and Deron Williams to Illinois a decade ago.
Yet as I watch this Kansas team, I sit there and wonder, could any coach have gotten more out of Tyrel Reed and Brady Morningstar? Athletically they don’t belong on the floor of a top five team. Yet all they do is go out there, bust their butts and compete. Same with the Morris twins, who all of a sudden aren’t just low post bangers, but have more range on their deep ball than Ray Allen does.
The only thing that concerns me about Kansas is the following: They’ve played their two best games with Josh Selby on the bench. What happens when he comes back?
Now understand, I’m not saying that Selby is a negative impact guy at all. But at the same time, when it’s March, and he’s playing for an NBA contract, and maybe his minutes or shots are dwindling, is he going to force things? Kansas is the most unselfish team in the country right now, and in the end, that’s my only concern with this team.
Ohio State: I guess it’s only fitting that we end with Ohio State, right?
For my money, the Buckeyes have the best starting five in the country, and the best pieces that truly complement each other (even if their team vocals are worse than Milli Vanilli's were).
In no particular order: Jared Sullinger is their low post banger; William Buford is the do-it-all perimeter guy who can hit three’s, pull up from 15 feet or take it all the way to the rim; Jon Diebler is their long-range gunner; David Lighty is the do-it-all defensive player; Aaron Craft is the, “I’m just happy to be here and am going to get the hell out of everyone’s way guy," as well as Sullinger’s backup singer; and Dallas Lauderdale is the “bald, I look like a bouncer and throw down hellacious dunks to get the crowd pumped up guy.” Again, the pieces all complement each other perfectly.
Also, maybe I’m the only one that feels this way, but I don’t think depth is really an issue with this team. They’ve got plenty in the backcourt, and in the front court, Sullinger is just way too smart and too well schooled to get himself into foul trouble. You’ll see Charlie Sheen show up at your church picnic before you see Sullinger foul out of a big game.
And while all the undefeated talk may be a bit premature, this is the team that has the best combination of talent, experience, leadership and skill in the country right now. Sure some of their games have been close lately, and sure they’ll probably end up losing between now and the start of the tournament. But for what it’s worth, playing in a bunch of tight games like they have recently, can’t hurt later on.
Still, they’re undefeated, and close out these Power Rankings at the head of the class!
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