| 10 February 2011
The NFL season is now over. College football is now over. The NBA and NHL playoffs are still two months away. Same with Opening Day in baseball. So you know what that means, right? For six glorious weeks, college basketball takes center stage.
Now for most of you, I don’t need to give the hard sell on the sport. Like anything else, college basketball has its flaws (mainly players leaving early and Coach K’s hair). But it also has some of the coolest venues around, great rivalries, and the best postseason in sports. Well, except for the WNBA.
Anyway, it’s been awhile since I broke out a College Basketball Power Rankings article, but with rivalry week upon us, now seemed like a good time. The article ended up running so long that I broke it down into two parts, with the “Pretenders,” running today, and the real, bona-fide, “Contenders,” running Friday morning. So be sure to check back then, and remember, just because your team is on one side of the pretender/contender debate on February 9, doesn't mean they can't be on the other side come March 9.
As always, I encourage your feedback and opinion, and if you’re really feeling frisky, feel free to call me a mean name or two. It’s ok, every girlfriend I’ve ever had did the same.
And whether you’re a college basketball expert, or just getting into the sport now, sit back, relax and enjoy!
Fading Fast:
Illinois: I watch the Illini, and I honestly feel like they’re a Top 15 team. Then again, I also watch “Two and a Half Men,” and sometimes laugh. That doesn’t mean that my warped view is actually reality.
On a different note, does anyone else feel like Bruce Weber may have sold his soul to coach that 2005 team with Deron Williams and Dee Brown? And that the hundreds of bone-headed losses since then have been his comeuppance?
Texas A&M: The poor Aggies are as offensively challenged as an intramural team that starts all 5’7 white guys. Actually, I take that back. Most intramural teams with a bunch of 5’7 white dudes have at least one guy who can hit open jumpers.
Vanderbilt: It’s funny because when you think Vanderbilt, you think, “Slow and un-athletic, but also really fundamentally sound.” Yet this is far and away the most athletic team that Kevin Stallings has ever had.
Still, how do you lose to Arkansas? In basketball?
Washington: This is going to sound weird, especially since Washington is the No. 3 scoring team in the country. But I feel like they’re a scorer short.
And while we’re quick to commend Isaiah Thomas for moving to the point after Abdul Gaddy got hurt, I really just don’t know if that’s what’s best for this team. Three straight losses make me feel like I might be right.
Total Enigmas:
Wisconsin: You know how sometimes you go on a date , and after three hours you’re still not sure exactly how you feel about her, so you eventually decide, “Screw it, I’ll give her a call and we’ll go out next weekend.”
That’s how I feel about Wisconsin right now. I need two or three more games before I’m ready to pass judgment.
Florida: Ok, I’ve got a lot of Gators fans who read this site. So I’m going to very careful what I say.
I’ve got to admit, that like a Chia pet that gets watered every day, this Florida team continues to grow on me. After all those years, with all those bang-your-head-against-the-wall, what-the-hell-are-they-doing losses, these Gators seem to have finally figured things out. I only got to see highlights of the Kentucky game from Saturday, but still, I was impressed. That’s a game they would’ve lost last year.
With that said, the story of the last couple years with the Gators has still been dumb mistakes at the worst times. And honestly, I still feel like Florida is prone to their fits of stupidity.
The best example I can think of was Erving Walker’s play at the end of regulation against Vanderbilt. With 25 seconds left and tied, Walker decided that rather than running a real offense, he’d dribble around for 22 seconds, then jack up a three from close to half court. Granted, it didn’t end up costing the Gators anything (they won in overtime), but at the same time, don’t you think a Kansas, Duke or Pittsburgh would’ve gotten a better shot than that? And that’s still my problem with the Gators. They get away with a lot of crap against Ole Miss, Vanderbilt and South Carolina that they’re just not going to be able to come tournament time.
In the end, I know their record is good, but I’m going to wait on the Gators. The cream always rises to the top, and with road trips to Kentucky and Vanderbilt as well as home dates with Tennessee and Alabama coming up, we’ll find out soon enough if these guys are legit.
Terrifying to Play, But Ultimately Non-Threatening:
Missouri and Louisville: These are essentially the same two teams, right?
They both play super-fast, force turnovers and because of their three-point shooting, aren’t out of any game. They’re both awesome at home, but somehow a bit more vulnerable on the road. Each is also one big man short (although Missouri doesn’t have anybody like Terrence Jennings), and if you really want to reach on the comparison, you could make the case that both will be a top five team…heading into next year.
Ultimately though, each is flawed, and could you really see either playing beyond the Sweet 16? Me neither.
Does that mean you’d want to face them at any point in the tournament? I’d say not.
Efficient, Smart and Solid, But I’m Still Not Sold:
Purdue: The more I watch Purdue the more I wonder if they fall into the category of “Really good veteran team that beats everyone they’re supposed to, but rarely wins games they shouldn’t.” To that end, I think last week’s loss at Wisconsin kind of proved my point. The Boilers were the better team, the game was in their hands, and they just didn’t have that extra “Umph,” to pull out the win.
As for everything else, well let’s talk JaJuan Johnson. We can’t give him the national, “Most Improved Player,” Award, since he’s already an 11-time All-Big Ten guy, dating back to sometime in the mid-90’s. Still, I watch a lot of college hoops, and don’t think there’s a more improved player from this year to last, or a more complete big man in the game right now. Johnson can do it all: Hit a 15-footer, finish around the rim, pass, defend, you name it.
However, if we learned anything from Tuesday’s win over Indiana (a victory that was way closer than the final score indicated by the way), it’s that if you can at the very least slow down Johnson, Purdue doesn’t have a lot of alternate options on offense. E’Twaun Moore is playing better lately, but really hasn’t been himself for most of the Big Ten season. Lewis Jackson, Kelsey Barlow and everyone else aren’t quite there yet.
Essentially, I go back to my original theory on Purdue. Good, not great, will take care of business against the team’s they’re supposed to, but not the elite ones.
Kind of like…
San Diego State: Now before all you Mountain West, small-school and SDSU fans jump on my back, hear me out of on this. Also wait until you see where I’ve BYU in these rankings.
Here are my thoughts on San Diego State: Do I like them? Yes. Do I think they’re get to the Sweet 16? It seems very likely. But do I think they’re a bona-fide Final Four contender? That’s where you lose me.
What I honestly see from the Aztecs, is a souped up, reeeeeeeeeally athletic version of Wisconsin. San Diego State is a smart, solid team that doesn’t beat itself, and kills you in the half court running their sets and with their defense. They’re a team that can’t lose if the game is played in the 60’s, but I’m not so sure can win if the game gets into the 70’s.
And unfortunately come tournament time, you’ve got be able to play all styles, and beat all teams. Honestly, could you see the Aztecs beating a team like Villanova that has four or five guards that can take you off the dribble, or any really good defensive team that makes them work hard for buckets? Me either.
Look, I like San Diego State, and wish them luck going forward. But I’m sorry, they’re just not a Final Four team. Not even close.
I Can’t Put My Finger On It, But Something’s Juuuuust Not Right:
Syracuse: The Orange are on the other end of the analogy I used before with Wisconsin. I don’t know what’s quite wrong with them, but I’ve seen enough to know that I don’t need another date. Check please!
The strangest thing is that when I watch Syracuse, most of their guys are better than they were last year. Not just better really, but discernibly better. Rick Jackson is discernibly better than last year. So is Brandon Triche. Kris Joseph is coming on strong. C.J. Fair is way better than he was at the beginning of this season.
So what’s wrong? Honestly, I’m just not sure.
The only thing that I can really come up with is that the zone just doesn’t appear to be quite as lethal as last year. It seems like smart, well-coached teams can get easy buckets against it. Pitt did. Villanova did for a half. Hell, even Seton Hall did. And in Wednesday’s loss, Georgetown shot 45 percent from the field, and 43 percent from three. I would say those kind of numbers “Make Jim Boeheim pull out his hair,” but he doesn’t have any left. Still, you get the point. Whatever is wrong with this team starts on that end of the floor. As much as Andy Rautins and Wes Johnson impacted the offense last year, I think their defense may have been more important.
As for the offense, well something doesn’t seem right there either. Maybe it’s that they don’t have a playmaker who can create with the shot clock running down like Rautins did last year. Maybe it’s that this year’s stars just don’t have the killer instinct that Johnson had. Whatever it is, there is absolutely nothing that scares me about this team. Not one bit.
Could that change? Of course. This is a team that always seems to peak in March, and dominates the Big East Tournament like it’s being played on their home court. But right now, they just don’t look like anything close to a Final Four team. Not yet anyway.
Villanova: I won’t really add much on ‘Nova, only because I feel almost the exact same way about the Wildcats that I do about the Orange. On the surface everything seems to be fine, but I’ve watched them enough to know that deep down, something’s just not right.
If I put my finger on it, I’ll let you know.
Holy Crap, If These Guys Ever Put It Together, We’re All Screwed:
Kentucky: You know how there are certain people, that when you say a date like, “March 12, 1996,” they can instinctively blurt out, “It was a Sunday.” Well, that’s how I feel about Kentucky right now. I’ve got so many thoughts on them running through my mind, it’s going to be tough categorizing them all into coherent paragraphs. I’m going to try though.
Starting with their last game, if Tuesday’s win against Tennessee proved anything, it’s that when Kentucky’s head is on right, they can beat anybody. They’re long, athletic, skilled and have pieces that actually complement each other nicely. At times (like Tuesday), they can play tenacious defense. And Josh Harrellson has emerged as the 2011 version of Brian Zoubek, a big banger who can alter shots, and go for 12-18 points on any given night, just by hanging out around the basket and being in the right place at the right time. These are the good things about Kentucky.
There are some bad things though. Most importantly, the Wildcats aren’t all that good in tights games. A reader named Chris from Louisville and I have been trading e-mails trying to get to the bottom of this problem, and I think after Tuesday night, I’ve finally got an answer. Kentucky doesn’t have a real point guard. Crazy, but true.
The more I watch Brandon Knight, the more I realize that ultimately, he’s a shooting guard trapped in a point guard’s body. He’s not super quick or a great passer, and is better at catching the ball off a curl and attacking the rim, or shooting three’s than he is at getting others involved. That’s not a knock on the kid, that’s just who he is. The problem is, that’s also who Doron Lamb is, and to a smaller degree DeAndre Liggins and Darius Miller too.
Which is what I think this team’s biggest problem is. They have no problem getting big leads early, but when it’s time to protect them, they’re not nearly as good. The reason being, they just don’t have a John Wall/Derrick Rose/Tyreke Evans type that can dribble down the shot clock, and create with four or five seconds left. The guy who is tasked with that role on this specific team (Knight) should be the one catching passes in the corner from one of those other guys, rather than trying to distribute the ball. Come to think of it, I’m convinced that if Kentucky had a Corey Fisher/Kemba Walker type point guard to do exactly that (with Knight playing off the ball), than they’d be the No. 1 team in the country.
So with that said, what do I mean when I say, “If this team ever figures it out?” Well, I think that the success and failure of this club comes down to Terrence Jones. For the first time in four years John Calipari doesn’t have a point guard who can take over on sheer will. But he does have a small forward who can…when he wants to. Jones is too quick for smaller guys, and too athletic for bigger ones. If you try to double him, he’s an excellent passer as well. The problem is that he occasionally plays with as much energy and excitement as a teenager working the drive-thru at Burger King. Which as you can guess, isn’t a complement.
When he’s at his best though, Jones is the best player on the court. Period. He was awesome against Louisville, and the Wildcats won going away. His defense sparked the entire team against Tennessee. Of course, he’s also had a few clunkers too.
I’ve heard Calipari say that Jones can be the best player in the country he wants to be. If he ever is, the rest of college basketball could be in trouble.
North Carolina: Watching North Carolina on Wednesday against Duke, I thought for sure that I’d have to bump them out of this group. Going into the game, I thought they could win at Cameron Indoor with a ton of breaks going their way, but I never, ever, thought I’d see the Heels play as well as they did in the first half. Of course then the second half came, the defensive intensity slipped, and Seth Curry’s mom started going wild. Most importantly, we learned that while North Carolina is really good, they just…aren’t…quite…there…yet. But man are they are close. And unlike Kentucky, I do have confidence that they’ll eventually get there.
The reason? It’s got to start with Kendall Marshall, right?
Look, say what you want with how the Larry Drew III situation went down last week, but ultimately, can you blame the kid for the decision he made? If Wednesday night proved anything, it’s that (to steal a gimmick from Aaron Rodgers), Marshall has taken “the belt,” as point guard of this team, and unless his left hand falls off, or he gets caught trying to cross the border with a suitcase full of drugs, he isn’t giving it back. Marshall might not “look,” like a true point, but he is. Having watched the last two games, I don’t think there are five better passers in college basketball right now. Yes, I’m serious.
And once he gets comfortable, who exactly is going to stop this team? Tyler Zeller and John Henson were already basically impossible to match up against, and now that they’ve got a point guard who gets them the ball in position to score, watch out. They’re going to make it rain like Pac-Man Jones out there.
As for the rest of the team, Harrison Barnes is coming on strong, and Dexter Strickland is developing into a nice shooting guard. With Drew gone, the Heels don’t have much depth in the backcourt, but I do like what I see from Justin Knox up front. He could start for a lot of teams around the country.
Again, there is just too much talent on this team not to figure it out eventually. They’re thiiiiiiiiis close.
And you know what, when they do get there, watch out. As a matter of fact, I’m going to make a prediction right now: Assuming that Kyrie Irving doesn’t come back at the end of the year, North Carolina will not only beat Duke in Chapel Hill, but win the ACC Conference Tournament too.
You heard it here first….
CHECK BACK FOR PART II OF THE COLLEGE BASKETBALL POWER RANKINGS TOMORROW, WHERE AARON BREAKS DOWN THE ‘CONTENDERS’
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