 Every morning when I wake up, as soon as my alarm goes off, I grab the remote and flip on Mike and Mike in the Morning. It’s not that I have a weird fetish for the guys or anything (believe me) just that it’s a nice way to ease into my day, and assure I don’t fall back asleep.
Well today when I woke up, Doug Gottlieb was filling in for Golic, talking about this year’s tournament and telling us everything we needed to know about Round 1.
Gottlieb’s a real smart guy and I love hearing his opinions. This morning he made a lot of good points, maybe his most important one being that this year more than any other, matchups are more important than the names on the front of the jerseys. Sure X team might lose to Y team and Y team would most definitely lose to Z. But if X played Z, uh ohhhh it could get ugly, and X would run Z out of the gym. Or something like that.
With that in mind, I present you my Final Four picks. While collectively I don’t like these four teams a whole heck of a lot, and most certainly don’t think they’re the four best teams in the country, I do like their matchups. Remember, these four teams don’t have to beat the entire field of 65, just the teams in their path.
Also in this preview, along with my picks, I’ll give you a quick recap of the entire region, and a first round upset to watch out for too.
It’s hard to believe, but we’re just about a day away from finally tipping off. Hope you enjoy this time of year as much as I do.
South:
Quick Recap: In a podcast I did with Ryan McNeill of HoopsAddict.com on Tuesday, I asked the question America is dying to know: How big do you think the check was that Coach K sent to the NCAA Tournament committee this year?
Seriously, Duke opens with the play-in game winner, has the weakest No. 2 and No. 4 seeds in the entire tournament in their region, and plays the winner of an 8/9 game between two teams that couldn’t stay out of their own way the entire year. But just because they’re favorites doesn’t mean I have them penciled into the Final Four…
Potential Upset: I liked Siena to pull off an “upset,” before the tournament pairings were even announced. They’ve got everything you need to win in March: Great guard play (their point guard, Ronald Moore led the country in assists this year) and are experienced, having won NCAA Tournament games in each of the last two years (As a No. 13 seed against Vanderbilt in 2008, and as a No. 9 seed against Ohio State last year). Plus, they go to school in Albany. Would you be in a rush to get back there? Didn’t think so.
When I found out they were playing Purdue, well I couldn’t pick Siena fast enough. For those who might not know, Purdue lost their best player Robbie Hummel, and have been a disaster since. Seriously, somebody needs to call the Red Cross and get some missionaries to West Lafayette ASAP. It’s that bad. I even heard their coach Matt Painter on Mike and Mike Tuesday morning, and well, he sounded about as confident as I would be if I saw Mila Kunis at a bar and tried to approach her. Do with this information what you want.
Even if Purdue does beat Siena, I find it very hard to see them getting past the Texas A&M and Utah State winner.
Who’s Gonna Win, and How It’s Gonna Go Down: Villanova Over Duke
Believe it or not, I actually think Villanova’s first weekend might be tougher than the second. They’ve got a feisty Robert Morris team in the first round (that played in the tournament last year), and then gets the winner of Richmond and St. Mary’s if they advance, which I promise is no picnic in the park. St. Mary’s in specific has the one thing that will give Villanova problems, a legitimate center who can score, Omar Samhan.
If the Wildcats do get through the first weekend (And I want to emphasize that I won’t be surprised if they don’t), they’ll likely play Baylor in the Sweet 16.
I’ve liked Baylor all year (and continue to like them), but I just don’t think they have enough scoring down low to beat ‘Nova. Even with guards Tweety Carter and LaceDarius Dunn, you can’t try to outscore Villanova from the perimeter, which is what the Bears will have to do. Sorry Baylor fans, it just isn’t happening.
Then in the Regional Final, they’ll likely get a Duke team that blew through their side of the bracket, after big wins over Arkansas Pine-Bluff, the Sisters of the Poor and Nova Scotia Tech (Actually in all seriousness, I think Texas A&M can definitely give them a game in the Sweet 16. If Duke plays them).
And we saw what happened last year when Duke and Villanova played in the tournament. It wasn’t pretty.
Again, I’m not crazy about Villanova as a team, but there’s no doubt the matchup’s favor them in this draw…If they can get by their Round 2 game.
East:
Quick Recap: Last July, I proposed an idea for a reality show following the Kentucky basketball team through their 2010 season, which I affectionately named, “Cal’s Crew.” In hindsight, how awesome would that have been?? (Next week on ‘Cal’s Crew,’ DeMarcus Cousins punches a police horse, and a manager is called to bail him out of jail at midnight. See what happens when his ATM card gets stuck in the machine, and Cousins is forced to stay in the slammer overnight. Tune in next week at 8:00 p.m., only on ESPN2. Don’t tell me you wouldn’t love this show.)
Either way, we’ve gotten to this point and we all know the scoop on Kentucky: Young team, great coach, elite talent. But in a one and done tournament, is it enough?
Potential Upsets: I see all the big seeds winning in Round One, but also think that Wake Forest (No. 9) will beat Texas (No. 8) and Missouri (No. 10) will take Clemson (No. 7). Call those upsets if you please.
With Texas, it’s been a train wreck since mid-January when they got to No. 1 in the country, as they finished 7-9 down the stretch. Nobody cares, everybody wants the season to be over, a few guys are already mentally cashing NBA checks, and just when it couldn’t get worse, their only good ball-handler (Dogus Balbay) tore his ACL and was lost for the season. At least spring football practice is underway on the 40 acres.
And as little as Wake Forest does right (Which believe me, isn’t much), they do defend, as they finished eighth in college basketball in field goal percentage defense. Texas is ranked No. 210 in scoring defense. You do the math. It isn’t good.
The only way Texas wins this game is by turning it into a track meet, and Wake isn’t going to let it happen. Take the No. 9 seed in that one.
As for Clemson-Missouri, it really comes down to the fact that Clemson coach Oliver Purnell is pretty much the worst NCAA Tournament coach there is, and Missouri coach Mike Anderson got his team to the final eight last year. I’m not saying Clemson can’t win, but with all other things being equal, give me the better coach. Missouri has it.
Who’s Gonna Win and How It’s Gonna Go Down: West Virginia over Kentucky
West Virginia goes against everything I look for in successful NCAA Tournament teams. They don’t have good point guard play (Truck Bryant anyone?) and don’t make their free throws (69.6 percent as a team). Not to mention Bob Huggins tournament track record is spottier than Khloe Kardashian’s driving record. Which is not good.
I think they could slip up in the second round against Missouri, in the Sweet 16 against New Mexico or even their Big East rivals Marquette, but ultimately see them in the Elite Eight.
Kentucky on the other hand will lay waste to everyone in their path. They’ll run through Temple, Wisconsin, Wake, whoever. I actually think Cal’s Crew’s biggest challenge would be Texas, but as you know, I quite frankly don’t think Big Blue will even have to play them. Regardless, Kentucky cruises to the Elite Eight, although nothing is easy with Kentucky, so I’m sure a few of those games will be close.
But after facing a big steaming pile of nothing through the first three rounds of this tournament, I don’t see them beating West Virginia…if they get them. The Mountaineers are just as big, just as physical and just as tough as Kentucky. Plus after the Big East Tournament, I’m never doubting D’Sean Butler again. Ever.
Midwest:
Quick Recap: Ready for a quick rant? If not, just skip this section, I won’t blame you. But here goes.
Seriously, when the NCAA Tournament committee puts together the bracket, can we do away with all this re-seeding of teams based on geographical proximity B.S., and just make the most fair and balanced tournament? Is that possible? At all? Please? I’m actually begging at this point.
Because here’s the thing. As someone who worked in a major collegiate athletic department at UConn, I promise you that where a team plays, has ZERO impact on how much school that team is missing. None. Zip. Zero.
Whether these teams are playing 15 minutes from their campus or a 10 hour plane ride away it doesn’t matter. If their first game is on a Thursday, they’re leaving campus Tuesday. If their first game is on Friday, they’re leaving Wednesday. Period. Also, only one quarter of the field (16) teams spend more than one weekend away from campus. Only four teams spend more than two weekends away.
So with that in mind, the fact that Ohio State and Georgetown (only the best No. 2 and No. 3 seeds in the tournament) are being sent to the same region as the Kansas, simply because of geographical proximity, is absolute, unequivocal, BULL. Thanks for nothing NCAA Tournament committee. Seriously.
Rant over. You can now get back to your regularly scheduled reading.
Potential Upset: I’m thinking No. 12 New Mexico State over No. 5 Michigan State. How say you?
Speaking of the NCAA Tournament committee, what exactly did Michigan State do to deserve a No. 5 seed?
Because I’ve looked over their schedule again and again, and am not seeing a whole lot. They lost to Texas, North Carolina and Florida out of conference (not exactly a murder’s row as we’ve come to find out) lost to Ohio State in their only matchup with them and didn’t beat Purdue when Purdue had Robbie Hummel. They split with Wisconsin and Illinois. What am I missing again?
New Mexico State on the other hand had to beat Nevada on their home court in the semifinals of the WAC Tournament and Utah State (You may know them as the No. 12 in the South Region) in the finals. The Aggies are playing well. They’ve got nothing to lose. And I don’t think they will.
Who’s Gonna Win and How It’s Gonna Go Down: Kansas over Georgetown
Looking at Kansas’ side of the draw, I’m thinking they steamroll into the Elite Eight. Nobody even plays within 15 points of them. Cole Aldrich could literally eat one of Maryland’s big guys for breakfast if he so pleased.
The other side though is much more interesting. Ohio State is good, but will be challenged in the second round either by the size of Georgia Tech or the speed, athleticism and borderline recklessness of Oklahoma State. I’m still taking Ohio State though.
Georgetown will have to win in the half-court in the second round, but should get by (I presume) Tennessee.
Which leaves us with Ohio State and Georgetown, just a fascinating matchup, that if the committee didn’t have their thumbs up their a**es would have made a great Final Four game. Instead we get it two rounds earlier. Good times.
Having seen Georgetown play in person last week, they are just too lengthy for Ohio State. The buckets the Buckeyes were getting early in the tournament will be harder to come by against the Hoyas. Ohio State has the best player, but this is a terrible matchup for them. Georgetown is scary good when they are rolling.
In the regional final, it’ll be an all-time classic, so go ahead and call a sitter for the kids right now, you don’t want to miss this one. If you can’t find a sitter, slip some Nyquil into their sippy cups, it’s ok, I’m not here to judge.
It may be close, but by a hair Kansas is better. Another Final Four matchup being played before the Final Four. Thanks NCAA Tournament committee.
West:
Quick Recap: The fact that the regional final is being played in Salt Lake City says it all. Just not a lot of exciting players or teams here. Although a Syracuse-Gonzaga second round matchup would be highly entertaining. Plus, if Syracuse somehow had to play BYU in the Regional Final in Salt Lake City, Jim Boeheim would go hoarse from all his complaining. Somebody pack some extra green tea just incase.
Potential Upset: You ready for one way off the board? A total AaronTorres-Sports.com exclusive? Oakland over Pitt. You heard it here first (And probably last too).
Here’s my argument (Wait, you’re gonna be impressed. I promise): Oakland has won 21 of their last 22 games dating back to a pre-Christmas loss at Syracuse. They also played at Kansas, at Wisconsin and at Memphis. Think they’ll be scared by the name on the front of Pitt’s jersey?
Also, Oakland’s point guard is a kid by the name of Johnathan Jones. Not too impressive right? Sounds like one of Tim Taylor’s kids on Home Improvement? Well the guy led the country in assists in 2009, averaging over eight a game, and finished this year with over 6.5 a game too. Plus Oakland has a center named Keith Benson who averaged 17.5 points and 10.5 rebounds per game. Pitt doesn’t have anyone on their roster size wise that can match up with him (And Pitt fans, please don’t give me Gary McGhee. I know he’s listed at 6’10, but you and I both know he’s closer to 6’8).
So you’ve got an underdog who has lost one game since Santa Claus got stuck in your chimney, and they’ll have the best point guard and big guy on the court? Give me them. (Told you I’d make a pretty good argument. Right?).
Who’s Gonna Win and How It’s Gonna Go Down: Syracuse over Kansas State
Simply because of a lack of better options. Quite honestly, I’m thinking that BYU might beat Kansas State in Round Two, but don’t have the stones to pick it.
There’s nothing wrong with Kansas State, I just don’t like them as a tournament team. The truth is they’re a team that plays hard on offense and defense, doesn’t make mistakes and hits their free throws, but they’re not built to win in March. They’re built to pile up wins against the Colorado’s, Iowa State’s and Nebraska’s of the world, but just don’t have the talent to match up with the truly elite teams. If you don’t believe me, look at their three losses to Kansas this year.
As for ‘Cuse, nothing isn’t going to be easy for them. Not their first round game against Vermont (The Catamounts are TOTALLY underrated), not their second round game if they play Gonzaga, and not a Sweet 16 matchup if they play Vanderbilt. But none of those teams are elite, and nobody can beat them, assuming Arinze Onuaku is healthy by the second weekend.
And as I mentioned, Kansas State most definitely cannot beat them.
So there you have it: Villanova, West Virginia, Kansas and Syracuse. The fab four. The fantastic four. The Final Four.
Call it East Coast bias if you want, but I don’t want to hear it. Quite frankly, I think that Georgetown is the best team out of the Big East, and the one I’d want to play the least.
But this year it’s all about the matchup’s. Some teams have them in their favor, some don’t.
See you from the couch tomorrow.
(Love the article? Hate it? Violently disagree with something Aaron said? Let him know by commenting below, or e-mailing him at
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Also for his take on all things sports, including his up to the minute thoughts on everything going on in the NCAA Tournament, be sure to follow him on Twitter @Aaron_Torres and Facebook.com/aarontorressports)
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By the way, when it comes to Baylor, what do you mean we don't have scoring down low? We have an NBA lottery pick in Udoh. Our two guards only average a combined 34 points per game, everything else comes from our big guys.