| 18 January 2011
Bill Parcells always used to say, “You are what your record says you are.” What a statement, huh? It’s simple. It’s to the point. It’s spot on. And if you don’t agree, well take it up with Parcells. Good luck.
Anyway, we’re getting to right about that same point in the college basketball season. The time when the easy games are over, and conference play has begun. When everyone knows your strengths, and you can’t hide your weaknesses. When, again, it becomes apparent that you are what your record says you are.
Of course that doesn’t mean that we know everything about these teams, and it doesn’t mean that if the tournament started today, we’d have it all figured out.
Still, we do have an idea though, which is why I thought it’d be fun to throw out 10 Predictions for the remainder of the college basketball season. I did this before football season, and it was a fun way to take stock of which teams were where, and what to expect going forward.
Obviously, all these predictions won’t come true. And honestly, if you know my track record, I’ll take two out of 10. But still, at least it’s something to guide us as we head into the last 2 ½ months of the regular season.
Enjoy.
1. If Kyrie Irving Doesn’t Come Back From Injury, Not Only Will Duke Not Win The Title, They Won’t Make The Final Four: Might as well start off with a bang, right? Well, after saying that I thought Duke “might be the best team in the country even without Irving,” a few weeks ago, the last couple games have had me do a complete 180.
Honestly though, this isn’t about me killing Duke over one loss. It happens. And in their defense, for whatever reason, the Blue Devils always seem to struggle against Florida State in Tallahassee. Hell, I even remember being a pimply-faced, no-girl-even-knew-I-existed teenager, and watching Jason Williams, Carlos Boozer and Mike Dunleavy get beat at Florida State. It’s Duke’s house of horrors. The Seminoles just have their number.
Really though, it isn’t just that Duke got beat, but how it happened. Watching that game, Florida State simply ratcheted things up, and played in your face, I might lose my scholarship if you get into the lane defense. And it turned Duke into exactly what they were a few years back: A soft, jump shooting, avoid contact and confrontation, team.
Now obviously to a degree the loss was an aberration. The Blue Devils were going to lose at some point. But at the same time they’ll need to figure out how to score against that kind of defense eventually. You know why? Because pretty much every other top team plays the same way. I know Syracuse and Pitt will play that way. So does San Diego State. Same with Purdue, Michigan State and Ohio State. Obviously Duke won’t need to beat all those teams to get to a Final Four or win a title, but I’m guessing there’s a pretty good chance they’ll need to beat some.
Which is where Irving’s absence comes in. To his credit, Irving was that uber-elite guy, the one who could get into the lane even with the other team’s best defender draped all over him. The guy that set up easy three’s for Seth Curry and Andre Dawkins, and easy dunks for the big guys. Just for the sake of argument, here’s an interesting stat for you: Did you know that in the nine full games that Irving played, Mason Plumlee (probably Duke’s best big man), had four double-figure scoring games? And since Irving went out, he’s had just one? Maybe that’s a Mason Plumlee problem, I don’t know. More realistically though, I think it has something to do with Irving.
Look, this is still a good team without Irving. But a great one? Hardly.
(For updates on all his college basketball articles and more, be sure to follow Aaron on Twitter @Aaron_Torres)
2. The Big East Will Have At Least Two Final Four Teams Out of Pittsburgh, Syracuse and Villanova: Honestly coming into Monday night, I thought these were three of the six best teams in college basketball, and even with losses by two of them, that opinion hasn’t changed. Each has all the stuff you need to do well in March: Talent, experience, coaching, you name it. And I expect all three to stick around for a long time in the tournament.
So if I had to pick to last until the Final Four, who would they be? Right now, I’d have to say Pitt and Syracuse.
Truth be told, I wasn’t always a big believer in Pitt. The reason being, that in the tournament, raw basketball talent shines above everything else. It’s why John Calipari’s teams always play well in March, regardless of how young they are. When push comes to shove, having the best players, is the biggest factor in tournament success. Seems simple, but sometimes we forget that.
And that’s always been my problem with Pitt. They’ve always seemed to fall into the “a lot of good players, no great ones” category in the last few years. It’s why they’ve made just one Elite Eight, and no Final Fours since Jamie Dixon took over. As good as they are at taking care of business against a lot of good and average teams during the regular season, when the games get tighter and the skill gets better, Pitt has just never matched up well.
So when people told me at the beginning of this season that this was the best Pitt team since Dixon got there, well, I had a little trouble believing it. Good yes. But better than any of those other Sweet 16 teams that just couldn’t match up in crunch-time? I wasn’t so sure.
Anyway, as much as it pains me to say it, I was wrong about this team. Watching them this season, they’ve almost got a San Antonio Spurs, “All five guys playing as one,” quality to them. Everybody works well together. They always make the extra pass. Every piece to the puzzle compliments the others perfectly. Honestly, this might be the best team in college basketball right now.
As for the ‘Cuse, well, they’re a little different. I picked them to win the Big East, so I guess I can’t act too surprised they’re 18-1. Still, I’d be lying if I said that I thought they’d be this good.
Put simply, as good as the Orange were last year, this year’s team has something the 2010 squad couldn’t dream of: Depth. Syracuse might not be as talented without Andy Rautins and Wes Johnson, C.J. Fair and James Sutherland give them the functional bodies off the bench that they really didn’t have last year.
As for the starters, well, Brandon Triche is playing with a, “Wait a second, I play basketball at Syracuse…screw off,” attitude that he didn’t have last year. Believe me, that’s a good thing. And Rick Jackson? Whew. It’s like he went on some “Extreme Makeover: College Basketball,” reality show or something. I crunched the numbers on Jackson, and the guy is exactly 128,000 times better than he was last year (I still might need to tweak those numbers a bit). As my buddy Dave- a huge ‘Cuse fan- said, "Watching Jackson from this year to last is like night and day." I couldn’t agree more.
3. Staying With the Big East Theme, I Think We’ll See At Least Four Of Their Teams In The Elite Eight: Quick, go ahead and name me one good reason that it won’t happen?
Waiting…
…
…
Now look, I know most of you think its Big East bias on my part, and I guess to a degree it is. And I’ll be the first to admit that there are a lot of other quality teams out there, Purdue, Duke, San Diego State, Ohio State, Kansas, Texas A&M whatever.
Still, for the sake of argument, the best judge of a conference’s strength is out of conference wins right? Let’s just quickly look at what the Big East has done outside of conference play, with a couple of the bigger wins, off the top of my head: West Virginia over Purdue; Syracuse over Michigan State (Although honestly, who doesn’t beat Michigan State in November and December?); Georgetown over Missouri; Notre Dame over Georgia and Wisconsin; UConn over Michigan State, Kentucky and Texas. And you know what the craziest thing about all those wins was? Except for West Virginia over Purdue, they were all neutral site or true road games. Good God.
So with Pitt and Syracuse already in my Final Four, who does that leave in my Elite Eight? For starters, Villanova is an obvious one. Yes they lost at UConn Monday, but if Saturday’s win over Maryland proved anything, it’s that they can get stops and scores in crunch-time. Also, I’ll put their starting five of Fisher, Stokes, Wayns, Yarou and Pena up against anyone’s. Even if their bench isn’t as deep as I’d expected it to be.
As for that fourth team, I hate to be a homer, but couldn’t you make a strong case for UConn? No, they’re not as skilled as a lot of teams, but with Kemba Walker, they’ll have the best player on the court every game, regardless of who they play. And as long as Alex Oriahki isn’t in foul trouble, there aren’t many better fill-in-the-blanks, do all the little things big guys than him.
Also, you know what else is scary? Don’t you think with the right breaks, Louisville (more on them coming) Notre Dame or maybe even Georgetown could all find themselves playing late into the tournament? A few things would have to go their way, but after surviving a Big East schedule, I don’t see why not.
4. By The End Of The Season, It’ll Be Universally Accepted That The Mountain West Is A Better Conference Than The ACC: Understand, that doesn’t mean I’m saying it’s going to last forever. Or that every team from the MWC could beat every team from the ACC.
Here’s what I am saying though: Let’s take Duke and San Diego State out of the equation for a second. Both are Top 10 teams. Both can beat anybody. Both have caches who have freakishly avoided the aging process over the last 15 years. In other words, you’re going to want to stay away from each, if at all possible.
After that though, let’s take a serious look. Let’s start in the Mountain West, where BYU, UNLV and New Mexico are the next tier. That might not sound incredible on paper. At least until you watch these teams.
And when you do, you’ll realize that BYU is absolutely, 100 percent legit. They’re 17-1, with their only loss coming on a neutral court to UCLA. And like Kemba Walker, Jimmer Fredette is going to keep them in any game, against anyone. Not to mention, he’s a huge hit with the ladies. We haven’t seen a Mormon heartthrob like this guy since the Jonas Brothers hit the scene three or four years ago.
As for UNLV, I’ve seen them play enough to know that you want no part of them. They’re experienced, have high major talent (transfers from UCLA, Kentucky and Memphis on their roster), and coach Lon Kruger is one bad dude. Not to mention he’s in the same mold as Coach K and Steve Fisher, in that he looks exactly the same as he did in 1995. Maybe they all have the same masseuse or something. I don’t.
And finally, New Mexico. Good talent. No inexplicable losses. And one of the toughest home-courts in basketball. Most conferences would kill to have the Lobos as their fourth best team.
As for the ACC…well it ain’t pretty.
When I started preparing for this column over the weekend, I was ready to officially jump on the North Carolina bandwagon after their win over Virginia Tech last Thursday. Then they Sunday’s game against Georgia Tech happened. Let’s just say the Tar Heels were so bad, I’m now seeing a psychologist twice a week. And I’m not even a North Carolina fan.
As for everyone else, here’s how they break down:
Boston College: Look, I love new coach Steve Donahue. The guy is a stud, and is going to have this team playing at a really high level, really soon. But they’re beating anybody elite this season. You know, especially since they already lost to Harvard and Yale. I guess Eagles fans should just be thankful Dartmouth and Brown didn’t have any open dates on their schedule.
Florida State: Yes they beat Duke, but they also lost to Auburn. In basketball. Yes, men’s basketball.
Virginia Tech: The Hokies are a bigger tease than the girl in eighth grade who “developed,” a year ahead of everyone else. At some point, they’ve got to beat somebody good, don’t they?
And remember, those are the good teams in the ACC.
I don’t know how else to say it. This just isn’t a banner year on Tobacco Road.
5. By The Postseason, Kentucky and Georgia Will Be Head And Shoulders Above Everyone Else In The SEC: With the SEC, I guess we can just start by eliminating everyone from the Wast right off the top. As someone who has been watching basketball my whole life, my No. 1 rule is, when the best team in your division literally has guys beating the crap out of each other, that’s usually not a good sign. Just a company policy.
In the East, well, I’m sorry but I just don’t believe in Florida. The Gators are like bringing a pound puppy around a newborn baby: There don’t appear to be any big picture issues on the surface. But honestly, do you want to mess with that baggage?
As for Tennessee, I just don’t know what to make of this Bruce Pearl situation. I know they won Saturday, but what’s realistic with five more games left on the suspension? And Vandy…whatever. Good at home. Ok on the road. Same song and dance as every year.
So that leaves Kentucky and Georgia as the class of the conference. I won’t spend too much time talking about the Wildcats, just because you already know about them. Terrence Jones. Doron Lamb. John Calipari. You’ve heard of those guys, right?
Georgia though, well they’re a little more interesting. I still don’t have a great feel for them, but remember how I was talking about needing elite, NBA talent in March? Well Georgia’s got that. Travis Leslie and Trey Thompkins are both next level guys. And as reader Chris C. pointed out, the Dawgs are maybe the only team other than Kentucky without any truly inexplicable losses.
Which leads me to wonder, at 13-3, and 10 wins in their last 11 games, how is Georgia not ranked, while teams like Georgetown and Kansas State are?
Speaking of Kansas State…
6. The Wildcats Won’t Make The NCAA Tournament: There, I said it. Phew. I feel much better getting that off my chest.
And before Big XII fans get their panties in a bunch, I’ve got to ask, other than the names on the front of their jerseys and their run to the Elite Eight last year, what exactly jumps out about this team and screams “NCAA Tournament lock,” with this year’s club? Because I just don’t see much.
Look, I’d be lying if I didn’t say that I thought this team would struggle to match their performance from last year, especially on offense. I’ve been saying since before Thanksgiving that I just didn’t see this team scoring enough points to be competitive in the Big XII, and obviously (since I’m almost never right), I stand by it.
What I wasn’t ready for though, is the Wildcats overall apathy toward defense. Last year this was a team that thrived on that end of the court. Now, nobody helps off the ball, they’re slow to rotate, and as a team, they generally seem disinterested in playing defense all together. Watching the Missouri game put it all in perspective for me. Not only was Mizzou getting easy layups, but the worst part was, Frank Martin was the only guy who seemed to give a crap. Not a good sign for a team trying to make the tournament.
Speaking of which, let’s go ahead and look at the schedule. K-State is 13-6 right now, with a not so sparkling 1-3 in the conference. Their next three games are at Texas A&M, Baylor at home and at Kansas. At best they’re going 1-2. At worst 0-3.
After that it doesn’t get much easier with return dates against Missouri, Kansas and Colorado (A team the Wildcats already lost to), a visit to Texas and the Big XII Tournament looming. All of a sudden, we’re talking about 11-12 losses here, and that’s only if they don’t lose any morehead scratchers along the way.
I watch a lot of basketball. And right now, I just don’t think this is one of the 68 best teams in college basketball.
7. Rick Pitino Is Going To Be In The Running For National Coach of the Year By The End Of The Season: So here’s the thing about Pitino: I don’t like him. Point blank.
For starters, I’m a UConn fan, and for whatever reason, he and Jim Calhoun have never liked each other. Seriously, they’ve had a JWoww vs. Sammi thing going on since they were both young coaches in Boston. And if you mess with Jim Calhoun, you mess with AT too. Also, I’ve always had a pretty good report with Kentucky fans, and I don’t know if you’ve heard, but they’re kind of sour on Pitino as well. Meaning there just isn’t a lot of love in my heart for the guy.
But if there’s thing that he’s proved this year, it’s that when his pants are on, there aren’t many better coaches in the game.
As much as I loathe Pitino, I love this Louisville team. They’re playing fast and fun, causing turnovers, and winning games they shouldn’t. Their chemistry is off the charts. And they’re doing it with just one guy- Peyton Siva- who I feel like could start for most Big East teams.
And it’s because of Pitino. To his credit, he did the one thing most coaches are too stubborn to do. At the beginning of the season he looked in the mirror, took an honest assessment of his team, and said, “I’ve got to change what I’m doing, or we’re not going to win games.” Then he threw together this freakishly paced, fun to watch, 3-point bombing game-plan, and the Cardinals have never looked back. They’re in the Top 20, winning games they have no business being in, and if Saturday’s win over Marquette proved anything, are a team that isn’t afraid against anyone, or in any situation.
In the end, I don’t think Pitino will win Coach of the Year over guys like Thad Motta, Steve Fisher or Mark Turgeon. But it’s too bad. He should.
8. As For National Player Of The Year, Nolan Smith Is Going To Throw Himself Into The Discussion As Well: I’m not saying he’s going to win it over Fredette or Walker, because he won’t. But this guy is playing too well, and Duke is going to pile up too many wins, for him not to be a factor for the award.
And while my thoughts on Duke are already on record, I’ve still got to admit to being impressed with Smith. To his credit, he’s still putting up points, and doing it within the flow of the offense and while getting others involved. Duke has played nine games since Kyrie Irving went down and Smith took over the point guard duties. In those nine games, he’s scored 20 or more points six times, and had five or more assists in eight games.
There might not be an player who is more improved from this time last year to now than Smith is.
Moving on, and wrapping up with the Big Ten…
9. Minnesota Is Going To Be The Proverbial Team, “No One Wants To Play”: And it’ll be because of Trevor Mbakwe.
I knew nothing about the kid before the season, and now- full disclosure- he’s captain of my All-Man Crush team. Essentially he’s the perfect power forward for college basketball: He’s athletic, strong, tough, runs the court well, blocks shots and finishes in traffic. Think Ekpe Udoh last year. Honestly, I can’t think of three big guys in college basketball right now I’d rather have than him.
And to Minnesota’s credit, they’ve already survived the toughest part of the schedule. They opened Big Ten play with a schedule that read as follows: at Wisconsin, at Michigan State, Indiana, at Ohio State and Purdue at home, and somehow managed to go 2-3.
With a bunch of Iowa’s, Northwestern’s and Michigan’s coming up, this is going to be a scary team. And one you’re just not going to want to play.
10. Illinois Will Frustrate The Hell Out Of You: They’ve got the talent to beat anyone, but the mental mind-frame of a 16-year-old girl at all the mall. In other words, you just never know what you’re going to get out of these guys.
If you don’t know what I’m talking about, just watch them tonight against Michigan State. They never disappoint.
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